How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get? • Hacker News Board

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#171

Post by taneq » Thu, Apr 28, 2016, 10:46 PM UTC

overcast wrote: post #78

S_A_P wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I feel like the size = safety is fallacious. Size can equal safety, but its not a guarantee. Sure I would not want to get hit by a 3 ton lifted SUV with ranch style bumpers on it. I would feel that way even if what I were driving was a 3 ton suv with the same bumpers. There was an NHTSA video a few years back of a modern chevy impala hitting a 1959 impala and the much larger 59 getting demolished, while the new one h…

Have you seen the smart car crashes? Those cages can survive head on 60mph crashes to a brick wall. The issue here is that the soft human inside will not. Larger cars incorporate crumple zones, which absorb a ton of the impact, while small cars with extremely strong frames do not. The passenger absorbs all the energy = death.

A slight detour, but this always bugged me when Lois was falling to her death and Superman would catch her an inch off the ground.

Well done, Superman, you just broke your girlfriend into three pieces with your arms.

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#172

Post by taneq » Thu, Apr 28, 2016, 10:48 PM UTC

umsm wrote: post #121

cowmix wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is funny you should bring up brakes. On most hybrids and plugins brakes seem to last forever because regenerative braking is what is mostly used over using brake pads. My Volt has 54K miles yet my brake pads look practically new. Also, my Volt has only had its oil replaced once (because of how often the engine runs.) When I get my Tesla 3, I'll obviously never change my oil.

Tesla has a service schedule it suggests: https://www.teslamotors.com/support/service-plans You will change your battery oil.

What about headlight fluid? I don't see a schedule for that.

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#173

Post by taneq » Thu, Apr 28, 2016, 10:52 PM UTC

LoSboccacc wrote: post #74

today I got married. according to projection, in a month I'll have 30 wives

Unlikely. You weigh a kilogram more after the reception, in a month you'll be 30kg overweight so you have to take that into account (unless you set your survey period to end mid-reception when you're at your funniest after a few beers, so your d(sense-of-humour)/d(weight) remains above 1. ;)

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#174

Post by kirrent » Thu, Apr 28, 2016, 10:54 PM UTC

greedo wrote: post #147

philovivero wrote: post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the "orders of magnitude" phrase was a misunderstanding of exactly how large an order of magnitude is. Probably meant "an order of magnitude." I could see gas jumping to $20/gal pretty quickly if things go wrong in the right way.

Short of a revolution in Saudi Arabia, or something along those lines, oil/gas costs aren't going to go up 10x. Although gas isn't perfectly linked to oil prices, a barrel of oil isn't going to hit $450 anytime soon. There's far too much accessible oil at under $100/barrel for this to occur.

Exactly, people seem to forget how many oil sources are out there which become profitable at about $100 a barrel.

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#175

Post by ninju » Thu, Apr 28, 2016, 11:15 PM UTC

The author should also show a decline line on the prices of the average (and lowest cost) cars on his graph because I am sure the cost will come down for all types of cars

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#176

Post by csours » Thu, Apr 28, 2016, 11:22 PM UTC

kirrent wrote: post #174

greedo wrote: post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Short of a revolution in Saudi Arabia, or something along those lines, oil/gas costs aren't going to go up 10x. Although gas isn't perfectly linked to oil prices, a barrel of oil isn't going to hit $450 anytime soon. There's far too much accessible oil at under $100/barrel for this to occur.

Exactly, people seem to forget how many oil sources are out there which become profitable at about $100 a barrel.

And MANY oil substitutes start making sense around $150 a barrel.

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#177

Post by mjevans » Thu, Apr 28, 2016, 11:32 PM UTC

taneq wrote: post #171

overcast wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Have you seen the smart car crashes? Those cages can survive head on 60mph crashes to a brick wall. The issue here is that the soft human inside will not. Larger cars incorporate crumple zones, which absorb a ton of the impact, while small cars with extremely strong frames do not. The passenger absorbs all the energy = death.

A slight detour, but this always bugged me when Lois was falling to her death and Superman would catch her an inch off the ground. Well done, Superman, you just broke your girlfriend into three pieces with your arms.

That's just one of many areas where readers/viewers willingly suspend disbelief.

Superman is supposed to be able to do that; that's one of the benefits of being beyond human is (for him). A literal reality distortion field is actually the best explanation for all of the exceptions to physics that happen around him; Lois passing in to that bubble while being saved is just one more thing on the list.

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#178

Post by danans » Thu, Apr 28, 2016, 11:32 PM UTC

PinguTS wrote: post #5

This article has lots of false assumptions. To phrase it positively, the article ignores a lot of facts. EVs are simpler devices than gasoline-powered vehicles. They have a smaller number of parts, making them easier to assemble. At similar scale to gas vehicles, electric vehicles should indeed be lower cost to built. In addition, EVs have many fewer moving parts (in the engine and drivetrain in particular) than inte…

One thing often overlooked is that even if a battery pack has reached the end of it's useful life for a car (i.e. 50% of it's original storage capacity), it still potentially has utility for stationary storage purposes. It seems like Daimler is already working on reusing car batteries in this way: http://arstechnica.com/science/2015/11/daimler-is-reusing-el...

... and I read once that Elon Musk talked about it, though I can't find a link.

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#179

Post by aninhumer » Fri, Apr 29, 2016, 12:11 AM UTC

JulianMorrison wrote: post #92

I confidently predict, in my lifetime, - Nearly all cars will be electric. - Nearly all cars will be self driving. - Nearly all cars will be Uber, or something like it. - Exceptions to the above will be owned by the same sort of people who currently own Ford model Ts. They will be lovingly maintained, proudly exhibited, and illegal to drive on the public highway.

>- Nearly all cars will be Uber, or something like it.

I'm not entirely convinced this will happen. Certainly owning a car will be a luxury, but it will be an affordable one (since we can clearly already afford it). I think there are enough advantages to car ownership, like instant availability, and personalised space, that mean many people will still choose to own a car instead of taking taxis.

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#180

Post by blisterpeanuts » Fri, Apr 29, 2016, 3:40 AM UTC

blisterpeanuts wrote: post #140

WJW wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd prefer that they would have been not hit at all, which a more maneuverable vehicle with a shorter stopping distance might help with. Also, the probability I'm interested in is not the survivability in an accident, it is the total survivability over my lifetime, discounted by some percentage for cost etcetera. In your argumentation, everybody should drive around in tanks on the off chance that somebody else might…

Larger vehicles have larger crumple zones and more steel all around. Are you saying larger vehicles are no safer than smaller ones? This runs counter to decades of conventional wisdom based on thousands of crash tests. See Edmunds, Consumer Reports, and other reputable organizations for corroboration of this.

Here's some numbers that establish that larger vehicles are generally safer:

http://www.iihs.org/iihs/topics/driver-death-rates

Compare the death rates of small, tiny, and midsize sedans (2011 data is the latest).

Then look at large SUVs. Huge difference. "All vehicles" = 28. Most of the large SUVs are single digits, most of the smaller cars are well above 28.

Curiously, Ford Expedition 2WD is above average and is an exception. I would love to understand why because it's a huge vehicle. The Ford Expedition 4WD is way at the other end, 5 deaths. Perhaps it has something to do with how people drive, or some flaw in how it handles.

Most trucks are pretty safe, but the Ford F-150 4WD has above average death rates, and is the most popular single model of pickup truck. I wonder if this is because lots of people buy this truck who don't really know how to drive a truck.

Anyway, some interesting data to explore there. Although as I pointed out, there are some outliers, in general the data lines up with the contention that larger vehicles are safer.