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A free shipping mystery

romain.goyet.com

171–180 of 202 posts

Re: A free shipping mystery

#171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That only gets you so far though. > assuming it takes the mailman as little as 10 seconds to deliver the package, and given he is paid the minimal legal wage here, that would already cost… 3 cents already! The marginal cost for delivering that button (even assuming the button itself was free) was more than 3 cents.

So I don't know much about how mailmen are employed, but there are a few scenarios in which it could turn out that the mailman would have been paid those 3 cents regardless . The simplest: he's salaried. However, I don't think mailmen generally are. Alternatively, the mailman is paid hourly but is expected to put in 40 (or some other constant) hours of work per week. His primary role is to deliver mail, but any extra…

I was a mailman in Sweden for about 3 years in the early 2000s. One year full time, temping while doing uni for another two.

Full time employees were salaried, with 8h work day averaged over a month. When work was done, you went home. If you worked 6h one day, 10h the next you would not get overtime. Overall, I would guess I worked about 80% of the monthly hours, and I never hit overtime. Longest day I worked was 13h, shortest day was 3.5h.

Temps were hourly.

The extra time cost of adding a piece of mail to a route is mostly negligible. There are a few exceptions.

The first piece of mail that will take you inside an apartment complex adds a good bit of time (since you have to get off your bike and go into the building). I may have occasionally have forgotten to deliver something that was going to the 4th floor if that was the only thing in that apartment complex on a given day, and delivered it the next day instead.

The first piece of mail to a house doesn't matter - 95% of the time delivering to houses is the transport time between houses, not the delivery.

For us, routes were typically limited by physical effort and in-between transportation time, not the volume.

Houses were limited by the time of going from house to house, to about 2.5h time total. Apartments were limited by the effort of going up and down stairs to about the same time.

A usual route would be ~600 houses, or ~80 4-story apartment entrances. High rises were more limited by volume (and were typically mixed with 4-stories for that reason) so that a normal route would be maybe 8 high rises and 70ish apartment entrances.

Re: A free shipping mystery

#172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The number of trucks or airplanes you need to run on any given day depends on how much traffic you carry. That might be how a delivery service works, but it's not how the post office works in almost all the countries in the world. Including, I suspect, the USA. Post office networks are actually run as networks. They have drivers who collect from post boxes at regular times, sorting offices that work round the clock…

Isn't that just because volumes are highly predictable in the short term? It's not that the marginal cost per item is near zero, it's simply that the number of items is just about the same each day. It's still meaningful to talk about the cost of delivering a single item, and the strangeness of having a price that's well below that cost.

Volume is predictable but not the same.

Mail volume varies easily by a factor 3-4 between days.

The cause would be high volume things would be things like utility bills that usually go to everyone inside an area on the same day or within a few days.

Re: A free shipping mystery

#173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because if I want to ship a birthday gift to my uncle in Indonesia, and I show up at the post office wanting to do that -- how are the people at the post office supposed to figure out how to much to charge me, where the 'incoming drop-off point' in Indonesia is, and how much it would cost at that moment in time to ship from the 'incoming drop-off point' to my uncle in Indonesia? For every possible location on the pla…

The Universal Postal Union was classically focused on international letter mail, back when that mattered. Until 1969, there were no terminal delivery charges, much like the early days of the Internet when there were no peering charges. Each country had to deliver within its own country for free. But because letter traffic tended to be roughly equal in both directions, this wasn't a problem. When terminal delivery cha…

Why this will change in 2016 ? and any guesses to how much the new tarrif will look like ?

Re: A free shipping mystery

#174

I just had a lesson about e-commerce in the last semester. My professor said it would be much better if the price includes the shipping fee (if the fee has no big variation) since customers hate calculating the total price by themselves. They would also feel paying less if they do not see the extra cost.

A bad advise I'd say. What if costumer compared prices online without taking much notice if price included shipping or not (I often assume it does not, as for not living in a big country I often have to pay extra anyway)? You'd end up somewhere in the bottom of the list. Also, what happens when you buy 10x of the same item (sure, you can advertise "buy 3, get 1 for free!", but that's even more obscure)?

Re: A free shipping mystery

#176

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So that people who need a 3-cent button use the service, are impressed by it and become higher margin customers later on.

Is there really any vendor loyalty on a site like AliExpress though? It just doesn't seem that likely to pay off. On the other hand, I assume the amount the vendor is losing on a transaction like this is also minuscule, so maybe it would.

I feel like I'm subconsciously much more loyal to services I have used than I would otherwise like to think. There is so much other stuff going on and I just can't be bothered going through the (probably easy) task of understanding a new service. So I just go back to the service that I've already used, know works, and does amazing things like ship 3 cent buttons for nothing.

Re: A free shipping mystery

#177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is there really any vendor loyalty on a site like AliExpress though? It just doesn't seem that likely to pay off. On the other hand, I assume the amount the vendor is losing on a transaction like this is also minuscule, so maybe it would.

I feel like I'm subconsciously much more loyal to services I have used than I would otherwise like to think. There is so much other stuff going on and I just can't be bothered going through the (probably easy) task of understanding a new service. So I just go back to the service that I've already used, know works, and does amazing things like ship 3 cent buttons for nothing.

But it's not the service you need to be loyal to in order for this to pay off, it's the specific vendor selling that 3 cent button, since they're the one losing money on the transaction.

Re: A free shipping mystery

#178
post #56

Here's an article from 2014 that explains this "loophole" https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/storyline/wp/2014/09/12/...

From the article: > All this should be a reminder that any trade deal has winners and losers and unintended consequences. Obviously, whoever you subsidize is a winner. If you're setting up barriers to trade (e.g. tariffs), foreign sellers/manufacturers lose. If you're subsidizing imports, domestic sellers/manufacturers lose. Why can't we just not subsidize anyone ?! Free trade is supposed to be just that, free . Inst…

So what would you replace the UPU with? Bilateral agreements between every pair of national carriers?

Re: A free shipping mystery

#179
post #118

If you discover a product that sells for ten times more on Amazon than AliExpress, your first instinct should be to arbitrage the opportunity by ordering the product and selling it on Amazon (and letting Amazon handle the fulfillment: http://services.amazon.com/fulfillment-by-amazon/benefits.ht... ).

No, don't. When I go to Amazon, it's not for goods dropshipped from China. It's for things I want delivered quick and from reputable manufacturers and sellers. We already have this problem in Poland with Allegro (local eBay equivalent), where people automate this at a large scale. You and up scrolling past tons of these items, because a) you don't want to wait 20 or so days for it to arrive from China b) you know you…

Some users want that specialization, many users don't. Does the Amazon search interface not allow you to filter by shipping time? That seems like the correct way to solve your problem.

Re: A free shipping mystery

#180
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem might be Amazon here in this specific case, but I'd hazard a guess that this is just a subset of the massive drop-off in service that Amazon is experiencing due to a major transition to using USPS instead of UPS. Here in NYC Amazon delivery has gone from being amazing and magical to nearly worthless seemingly overnight with this change. UPS (and Fedex) didn't seem to have any trouble delivering even to ch…

Interesting! Getting a package from USPS in Australia is much better than getting one from UPS. USPS -> Australia Post means that I can get the parcel sent directly to my parcel locker [1] and get an SMS when the parcel arrives. I don't need to be present. UPS -> ??? means I'm guessing whether it'll be a local courier who has the contract or whether it'll be one of the many Toll [2] subsidiaries. No couriers are acce…

Entirely depends on how good your local post office are. Here in the UK, delivering to my parents out in the country Royal Mail is great. Delivering to my flat in the city, I'd rather have UPS.
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