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Wind now competes with fossil fuels, and solar almost does

fortune.com

171–176 of 176 posts

Re: Wind now competes with fossil fuels, and solar almost does

#171
post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Up north the latest nuclear plant guarantees price for its owners at 50 EUR/MWh (37 GBP) or less: http://www.energypost.eu/rosatom-signs-contract-build-nuclea...

"Its cost estimate has gone up from €3 billion to €8.5 billion." So, these estimates are not exactly worth much.

You are misreading the article, that cost overrun is from a previous nuke project (supplied by Areva, started in 2005 and not yet finished).

Regarding what the price guarantees are worth (and it's not an estimate, it's in contract), there are some interesting scenarios for sure if they can't hold up their promises. For example the joint company is being bankrolled with a large slice from Rosatom, one wonders what happens to their capital in case of a bankruptcy!

Re: Wind now competes with fossil fuels, and solar almost does

#172
post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Flywheels are as well. But at a much smaller scale than gravity storage.

Oh I wasn't aware. Link?

http://beaconpower.com/operating-plants/ but there are others, some even quite old. More often selected for niche reasons than market peak load balancing. e.g. site one at long end line of insufficient frequency stability.

Re: Wind now competes with fossil fuels, and solar almost does

#173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Also, I'm a neurotic so in case of a nuclear winter type of effect I would love to have some nuclear reactor technology going. My guess is that, in case of nuclear winter, the complex societal structures that make operating nuclear energy possible will break down anyway.

A sealed Thorium reactor could continue for decades after societal breakdown!

It would require no operations staff and no maintenance?

Re: Wind now competes with fossil fuels, and solar almost does

#174

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's interesting how many times I see people not understanding the effects of taxes. Like the short-minded people that think they'll reap huge benefits from taxing cigarettes and base their budgets around it. But then people stop smoking or find alternative sources for cigarettes so that the huge windfall of tax income never happens. Now they are left with a huge hole in their budget.

Did you consider the possibility that taxes on cigarettes are intended as an incentive to stop smoking and thereby lower the health care costs of treating long term smokers' various ailments?

Yes, but are you assuming that all tax districts had the same thinking? The situation I'm referring to up in the Northwest US, as I recall, was not considering that. Plus I'm sure there are other examples of budgets being based on taxes that didn't pan out, leaving a deficit in the budget.

Re: Wind now competes with fossil fuels, and solar almost does

#175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A sealed Thorium reactor could continue for decades after societal breakdown!

It would require no operations staff and no maintenance?

Correct. Modern designs are buried in the ground, and maintenance-free for 20-30 years.

Re: Wind now competes with fossil fuels, and solar almost does

#176

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"1. This is excellent. It means we're well on our way to sustainable energy generation. Wind and solar are only going to get cheaper. Even without subsidies, there is no reason to ever build another coal or oil fired generation facility. Natural gas will stick around until utility scale batteries ramp up, to where peaking plants are too expensive compared to utility scale batteries." Wind/solar + batteries will never…

Do you have data? Because there is enough wind potential alone in the US to satisfy the US power requirements 10x over. http://energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2015/05/f22/Enabling%20Wi... > You're very wrong here. China in particular is investing heavily in nuclear going forward, including thorium. There are a number of companies here in the US, such as Flibe Energy and Thorcon that are working hard on next-gen nuclear s…

"Do you have data? Because there is enough wind potential alone in the US to satisfy the US power requirements 10x over."

When it is blowing, possibly. However it requires backup power for those inconvenient times when there is no (or little) wind. The cost of backup plants is one of the hidden costs of wind.

"While China continues to build a handful of nuclear plants, their wind generation capacity is already far ahead of what they're producing from nuclear"

China is planning on 400-500 GW of nuclear electric production by 2050. That will likely dwarf the real output of its wind farms.

http://thediplomat.com/2014/10/why-china-will-go-all-in-on-n...

"Wind is already cheaper than nuclear without subsidies in the USA and the UK. It also kills less birds and bats than buildings, cell towers, and cats."

Wind might be cheaper in the very best siting areas. The long-term durability of the generators remains to be seen.

Regardless, the affordability and effectiveness of wind has long been exaggerated by advocates. Here is a more balanced treatment:

http://www.strata.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/Full-Report...

The report's conclusion:

'The true cost of wind energy is higher than most cost estimates calculate. Mandates requiring the use of wind energy increase electricity costs for consumers, and subsidies mask the actual cost of doing so. RPS require intermittent renewable energy to exist, but at the expense of utilities and consumers. The PTC makes wind power cheaper for utilities and consumers, but at the expense of taxpayers.

Through such policies, U.S. policymakers have essentially decided that electricity consumers will have wind power, even if it is more expensive. The cost of this decision has fallen to U.S. taxpayers and consumers of electricity. When weighing the costs and benefits of wind power, not including all of the hidden costs makes wind power appear to be a more attractive option than it actually is. Energy policy decisions, however, should be based on a more complete estimate of the cost of wind energy.'

"You mention next-gen nuclear tech will come in at 5 cents/kwh. Utility solar is already below 4 cents/kwh"

That is heavily subsidized, and also in the very best siting environment. Obviously those installations produce nothing at night, and even during the day average well under their peak output.

Solar is in no way a replacement for reliable, 24/7 nuclear generation.

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