Microsoft is Dead

1. Data formats: The Operating System is becoming less important. The focus should continue to be toward standards. Proprietary Data formats, such as DOC are slowly dying. This is absolutely one of the keys (as evidenced by MS's reaction to Massachusetts when they attempted to pass legislation requiring the use of Standards on their documents).

MS has spent nearly their entire dev cycle ensuring "vendor lock in". This is beginning to end. You mentioned JavaScript as an attempt to compromise popular 3rd party solutions. Further research will turn up an unbelievable number of attempts at this (some successful others just a joke and a waste of the customer's time).

The message to ALL users is this: Keep your data open It's your data and you should have access to it from more than one company or Application. Avoid forced upgrades and security issues when MS decides to stop supporting an application.

2. Hasta la Vista: BrandonM pointed out MS's apparent contempt for the customer - and contempt is what it is. This is why Windows XP will absolutely be the last OS I ever use from MS. It doesn't make a difference to me if Vista is the greatest OS ever or can be completely killed by an animated cursor. MS has done more to alienate their customers than all the competing products and companies together have been able to do. Alternatives are now ready and available.

3. Alternative OSes: The re-emergence. This area has continued to rise in prominence thanks in large part to Linux, BSD and OS X as well as serverLinux on hosting accounts. Upper-tier Operating systems such as Apple's OS X, Linux, BSD and Solaris are exciting viable alternatives. Second-tier Operating Systems such as OS/2 (eComStation) - capable of running modern browsers (Firefox) and applications can also fill a niche.

Even fundamentally sound and high-quality third-tier OSes; such as AmigaOS4 and The RiscOS are beginning to see new momentum, as a result of Web Apps and the kind of backlash Microsoft has created among too many users. While I think these 3rd-Tier OSes need additional modern softTek, I hope they hang in there and continue to progress forward. The OS battle is a war not a battle won within a year or two.

4. Web 2.0 Apps: not just Internet/WAN-based... There is no reason why internet enabled apps couldn't reach any desktop OS. A complete local LAMP environment, for example, can easily be set up on any number of alternative Operating Systems. So if your needs can be filled with Web-based Applications, they can also be run locally (or over a LAN) for enhanced speeds. Even portable computing devices (Nokia N800, Pepper Pad, etc..) shouldn't have a problem setting up this environment.

By default, these types of apps are network-centric. Businesses already loves and need them but many solutions are currently custom-built. Web Apps will continue to grow in functionality and will find a home on low-cost LAMP infrastutures as opposed to the more expensive WIMP or proprietary windows architecture.

5. Pointed out in the article was the power of a monopoly. A user commented on it's ability to kill competition. There was at least one objection to this. Below is only one example of the many instances of mafia-like bahavior by Microsoft:

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2002/02/20/be_inc_sues_microsoft/

In general, arrogant and abusive behavior by any company has a negative effect (google: Sony, DRM, backdoor rootkit OR Intel cpu tracking ID privacy). Are commercial software and digital media companies in danger? Yes... Google (as well as many users) are aware of the dark side of capitalism. This dark side has opened the door to GPL software (as well as various other open source licenses) and the famous "do no evil" guarantee from a major international vendor - probably a first in the history of commerce (maybe someone can verify this).

6. Newbies: The most important segment of the population and the hardest to reach. It wasn't until the emergence of Firefox that this group began to take notice of the failings of MS. Microsoft has never recovered from this. IE7 with it's built-in advertising, constant registry writes and lack of portability to even other MS OSes was not the solution.

Thanks but no thanks, Microsoft. You are a dinosaur, a relic from a time we will all hopefully soon forget.

I disagree with the end of desktops however. I'd prefer to be a geek at home, not show geekery everywhere I go. I don't like how much time people (including myself) spend on computers and its sad that they bring their laptops with them everywhere they go. A PDA makes more sense. I know two people in my class who have laptops. Everytime I see them open the laptops the battery is dead and they look for an outlet to plugin. They also use the laptops while in class and distract people with windows startup music and MSN messenger beeps. This is a recent addition to cell phones going off in class.

A couple of things still slowing down the transition.

1.) Broadband is not yet universal. Rural areas don't have it always and it they do, it is pricey to get. 2.) The installed base will use Win OS's for quite a while still (i.e., Office, engineering apps, business apps), my bet is on a ten year transition. 3.) There is still and will always be value in a stand alone system with an operating system and a cpu onboard for the same reason that the internet was invented. Millions of independently functional and capable cpu's+OS is a million times more robust than central-source server farms having it all. It will only take one war and one EMP burst to prove that.

I think Paul is right that Microsoft cannot do that anymore. The dominant platform is the web now, and Microsoft is not a dominant player there, let alone the owner. The web platform does not have an owner.

Currently Google is the most dangerous company for companies who bring a new application, but even they are not as dangerous as Microsoft was. It is still not perceived by its users as the company that brings the web platform.

For Google to crush MySpace or YouTube for instance, is not as easy at all as it was for Microsoft to crush Netscape.