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Where does next-token prediction leave us?

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Re: Where does next-token prediction leave us?

#161

Post by customguy »

dyauspitr wrote: post #57
overgard wrote: post #40

I have a more depressing theory. I think class is part of it, but I'm starting to suspect that a shockingly large number of people lack the critical thinking skills needed to think out the implications of this stuff. I say that because I've met so many people of the managerial class that seem to think it's going to replace the annoying people they have to pay, but somehow they don't think it's going to come for them…

[flagged]

People acting as if statistical text generation is thought is very bad, and very widespread. Imagine everybody, adults, pundits, people who get paid to have smart opinions, pretended HTML was some alien technology, the voice of God, just because they never bother to click "view source". That is the quality of the discourse right now, and a regression so bad no material benefits, none of which will materialize for the people who are already getting squeezed as hard as is possible anyway, could make up for it.

Re: Where does next-token prediction leave us?

#162

Post by customguy »

jstummbillig wrote: post #37

> So, where does next token prediction leave us? In a perpetual loop of rent-seeking for something made with humanity’s collective output of centuries. It is not a good place for an individual to be in, regardless of class. In what way is this different to electricity?

In what way is it similar?

Re: Where does next-token prediction leave us?

#163

Post by weatherlite »

customguy wrote: post #160
weatherlite wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You think every person only thinks of their own job and no one dreams of anything bigger from humanity’s perspective? Yes, the vast majority of people care about their jobs first rather than a theoretical future where mostly rich people colonize space. It's much easier to imagine yourself becoming poor than living in Mars.

What I was 9, I lay awake thinking about how humanity will one day explore space and discover all sorts of new species, make new friends.. I imagined music concerts with humans and animals and all sorts of creatures.. and then it hit me, I won't be alive by then. I basically realized I'm mortal, and cried for hours. I want that type of sadness back, please. Right now I'm relieved if anything to know I won't see 2126…

> I want that type of sadness back, please. Right now I'm relieved if anything to know I won't see 2126 and beyond, but that's not because I'm inherently pessimistic, I came to this world optimistic as can be.

This is normal I think. You grew up. Not wanting to live forever is totally sensible.

Re: Where does next-token prediction leave us?

#164

Post by imtringued »

gspr wrote: post #121
shinycode wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s exactly part of the feelings I have. I always loved to learn, dig subjects, debug, create. Now I feel something has been taken away and has no value. I feel indolence and apathy. In my company the CEO explicitly says that code quality does not matter. He doesn’t care as long as we ship fast and iterate. I am genuinely sad and feel I’m losing something and if I do everything like I used to do, I am pressured th…

I feel the same as you. But at the same time: do you not think your CEO will be proven wrong? Maybe I'm delusional, maybe I'm just rationalizing, but surely code quality, and code understanding, does matter? And if your CEO is right, then surely their business is doomed? If they don't understand, or can't maintain their own product, what's to stop their customers from just "making it" themselves? How is anyone happy…

They matter, but you can't argue that human written quality code that strokes the developer's ego is so much better than AI written code of slightly less quality. Understanding also matters, but now you're trying to familiarize yourself with the AI's code, not your colleagues' code and never the code you've written yourself.

Re: Where does next-token prediction leave us?

#165

Post by gspr »

fingerlocks wrote: post #154
gspr wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think the reason that most people don't DIY plumbing is a lack of accessible information. Any physical craft like that requires practice, so I think there's a real moat there.

There is a lot less information online about the physical trades compared to software development. Plumbers don’t post on ToiletOverflow.com all day helping each other with their little tricks and sharing tribal knowledge. Pick a random brass fitting at the hardware store and try to google its purpose; you’d be surprised by the scant detail even when yielding plenty of shopping links

Fair point. Also:

> ToiletOverflow.com

Applause!

Re: Where does next-token prediction leave us?

#166

Post by gspr »

throawayonthe wrote: post #151
gspr wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I feel the same as you. But at the same time: do you not think your CEO will be proven wrong? Maybe I'm delusional, maybe I'm just rationalizing, but surely code quality, and code understanding, does matter? And if your CEO is right, then surely their business is doomed? If they don't understand, or can't maintain their own product, what's to stop their customers from just "making it" themselves? How is anyone happy…

i guess it really depends... look at claude code itself, terrible code but rakes in the money dunnit

> i guess it really depends... look at claude code itself, terrible code but rakes in the money dunnit

I don't know. Does it?

Also: Maintainability is a property for which the associated costs don't show up right away.

Re: Where does next-token prediction leave us?

#167

Post by imtringued »

altmanaltman wrote: post #32
mmilunic wrote: post #8

> Non-technical middle managers who have not written a line of code in their lives, now feel that the biggest obstacle between them and greatness has lifted. I find it interesting how this is almost the “democratization” you mentioned that AI provides. While AI “democratizes” certain technical ability, in some ways the democratization of things can actually be bad, in that this “democratization” pushes us towards a s…

Coding was always "democratized". You just had to put in the effort of learning and understanding. Finding free resources is very easy. AI doesn't make that learning and understanding easy but just allows people to skip it. That doesn't mean democratization at all.

>You just had to put in the effort of learning and understanding.

Yeah it's always so weird when people anthropomorphize the harsh physical reality of learning a skill that is accessible to everyone as some sort of secret boys club, where the existing club members do not let you in, when the only difference between the members and outsiders is whether they've paid the entry fee or not.

Re: Where does next-token prediction leave us?

#168

Post by customguy »

weatherlite wrote: post #163
customguy wrote: post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What I was 9, I lay awake thinking about how humanity will one day explore space and discover all sorts of new species, make new friends.. I imagined music concerts with humans and animals and all sorts of creatures.. and then it hit me, I won't be alive by then. I basically realized I'm mortal, and cried for hours. I want that type of sadness back, please. Right now I'm relieved if anything to know I won't see 2126…

> I want that type of sadness back, please. Right now I'm relieved if anything to know I won't see 2126 and beyond, but that's not because I'm inherently pessimistic, I came to this world optimistic as can be. This is normal I think. You grew up. Not wanting to live forever is totally sensible.

I didn't think about "forever", then or now. It's more about seeing the next few hundred years as an exciting time of progress and adventures, of ideas -- rather than just a snuff movie I'd rather pass on.

And "growing up" kind of can mean everything and nothing. I noticed that humans prey on humans, destroy and poison animal species and each other for nothing, for entertainment or to compensate for psychological issues. It is normal for a child to reject that, and a moral imperative for an adult to act on that, not to "get over it".

Come to think of it, kids aren't "naive" that they don't know these things. Adults are correctly ashamed of them, so they only discuss them with people who will accept shrugs, i.e. other adults. If we were honest to children about the world, the things in it we accept, they would freak the fuck out and probably be traumatized. We tell them to not kick a dog, but oh by the way, Abu Ghraib. If they say "shit" they get scolded, if a strange man scares them you should tell their parents and they'll be mad at that man, but if people murder thousands of little children, just evaporate them, that's just how it is, nothing can be done. Some people are insane and rule over us, starve us out, and that's why mommy and daddy have to work 5 jobs to have nothing compared to what the grandparents had, but here's that cartoon you like.

I'd say what is called "rational" and "grown up" is often just diminished and broken, barely surviving via constant distraction from one's own state.

Re: Where does next-token prediction leave us?

#169

Post by xtracto »

shinycode wrote: post #114
Melamune wrote: post #75

LLMs reveal an important truth that we were already deeply aware of. With this cognitive offloading, the interests that drive us lose their meaning. If friction disappears, there is no longer any desire, pleasure, longing, obstacle, or demand. It is indolence, and it goes by the name of apathy. All these promises without even reaching an ideal! Could it simply be that this ideal is becoming impoverished? The prevaili…

That’s exactly part of the feelings I have. I always loved to learn, dig subjects, debug, create. Now I feel something has been taken away and has no value. I feel indolence and apathy. In my company the CEO explicitly says that code quality does not matter. He doesn’t care as long as we ship fast and iterate. I am genuinely sad and feel I’m losing something and if I do everything like I used to do, I am pressured th…

I recently at around 42yo learned how to darn/mend my socks. My mom taught me how to do it.

I have enough money that I could just throw my socks with holes to throw trash and buy new ones inconsequentialy, but mending them by hand gives me something, it is kind of therapeutic and a sense of accomplishment.

Im sure there are machines that could do it in a second, or a patch I could stick on it as well.

Point being that we can still find satisfaction in doing things by hand that technology can do fast/easily. We just stop doing it by hand for profit.

Re: Where does next-token prediction leave us?

#170

Post by fastforwardius »

altmanaltman wrote: post #35
brookst wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s not coding that’s being democratized, it’s the ability to create games, tools, etc, that require coding. Suppose it became possible to buy a Ferrari (not that new hideous one) for $5k. That would be democratizing Ferrari ownership: far more people could do it. I’m sure there would be investment bankers who would complain it devalues their hard work (I am not a fan of those people, but it is notoriously long hour…

Wait a second, you say its not coding thats getting democratized. It is the "ability to create" software... hm i wonder what would be the ability to write software? Maybe something like software engineering? Also your example with Ferrari is completely flawed, and I dont give a fuck about what investment bankers think or do. What are you even talking about here? Please explain the first part more than you hand waved…

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