Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yes, power laws are everywhere. The exact shape of each distribution varies, however, and little is known empirically about the distribution of trading profits in financial markets.
Yeah if you look at the Boltzmann Wealth Model, where every actor gives away 1 dollar to a random person, and you repeat this, then if you start with an equal wealth distribution, you end up with an exponential wealth distribution. That shows how strong exponential curves are :) A few "lucky" individuals become very wealthy, while the vast majority of people end up with very little or nothing. The effect is so strong…
Who wins and who loses in prediction markets? Evidence from Polymarket
161–167 of 167 posts
Re: Who wins and who loses in prediction markets? Evidence from Polymarket
#162We study trading gains and losses on Polymarket, the largest prediction market. Using 588 million trades ($67 billion in volume), we show that the gains are highly concentrated: the top 1% of users capture 76.5% of profits. Successful traders provide liquidity using limit orders that resolve favorably relative to realized outcomes while unsuccessful traders take liquidity using market orders. Monthly performance is w…
The spreads on most markets always seemed like a hint that polymarket transferred wealth from the impatient that don't really understand how it works, to those that play mostly as patient market makers with just an educated guess. The problem is that volume is generally too low to make significant money.
Re: Who wins and who loses in prediction markets? Evidence from Polymarket
#163Earlier quoted context omitted.
The stock market is not in the least zero sum. That's just a fundamental misunderstanding. There's dividends, capital allocation, etc.
There is only so much real money in the world, and that is determined by the Treasuries and Feds of the world. There are only so many dollars that were ever created, so many Japanese yen that were ever created, and so many Turkish lira that were ever created. The stock market is a wealth redistribution mechanism, not a money printer. Market caps going up are not equal to money being created. It's not like the shareho…
The entire point of the stock market is to support an economy that creates value: take inputs that are worth X (basically, cost of goods sold) and combine them into something that is worth more than X (revenue), with the difference being a profit that (after interest, taxes, depreciations) is paid out to stockholders as dividends. That is positive sum.
The market cap of a firm is the best estimate of the discounted value of future earnings. When it goes up, that does represent (estimated) value creation.
Stocks have a fundamental value. Everyone would not "collectively cash out" - stock prices would fall well below their fundamental value, others would see a bargain, and buy the stock. (Unlike crypto, say, which has no fundamental value but is purely sentiment; well that plus supporting the underground economy.)
Of course, it is conceivable that something happens (nuclear war, say) that would reduce company earnings for the foreseeable future, and then the stock market would collapse. But that is because it correctly anticipates reduced future earnings, not because "everyone collectively cashed out". If everyone is wrong about the stockmarket, but you are right, you can realise your gain over time. Just hold on to the stock and wait for the dividends to roll in.
So, the economy is positive sum, the stock market is a wealth creation machine (refuting your b).
Next, on money. My entire discussion above was purely in real terms. Yes, central banks determine the money supply (commercial banks create most money, but central banks control it). But they don't determine how much real wealth is produced every year; rather, they try to control the money supply so as to achieve moderate inflation.
By creating more or less inflation the central banks achieve some redistribution of wealth from debtors to creditors or vice versa, but again, they do not influence real wealth creation (unless inflation becomes so extreme (either deflation or hyperinflation) that it affects consumer behaviour, degrades planning, etc.).
Re: Who wins and who loses in prediction markets? Evidence from Polymarket
#164Earlier quoted context omitted.
This still doesn't mean they are good at it. For them it's like flipping a coin with two identical sides. It's just cheating.
My point was that the alternative to "liquidity providers make the most money" is not "prophets exist", the truth could have been "insiders make the most money". Note that there is nothing in the rules of Polymarket or the other prediction markets that says it's not perfectly OK for insiders to bet, so I don't think it makes sense to call this cheating. Of course, this is a major absurdity of these "markets", but ins…
Re: Who wins and who loses in prediction markets? Evidence from Polymarket
#165Earlier quoted context omitted.
There is only so much real money in the world, and that is determined by the Treasuries and Feds of the world. There are only so many dollars that were ever created, so many Japanese yen that were ever created, and so many Turkish lira that were ever created. The stock market is a wealth redistribution mechanism, not a money printer. Market caps going up are not equal to money being created. It's not like the shareho…
Sorry, but that is wrong or confused on multiple levels. You claim that a) "real money" (whatever that is) is determined by how much money central banks supply, and b) the stock market is a redistribution mechanism, not a wealth creation mechanism. In reality, the stock market creates wealth, and central banks control the nominal quantity of money (not "real money"), thus influencing inflation and shifting around rea…
Re: Who wins and who loses in prediction markets? Evidence from Polymarket
#166Earlier quoted context omitted.
Any resources you'd recommend to learn economics? I have a hard time seeing how "I'd like to live in a world where everyone is equally cared for" accidentally leads to "others must suffer for me to be better cared for than any other human who has ever lived", but then again I'm not exactly an intelligent person so I can struggle to understand these sorts of things :)
Not sure if you are serious. But consider a tragedy of the commons situation for the production of a commodity. Now consider that that commodity's price is influenced by weather. In such a situation, price will likely be volatile a lot of the time. You can mandate that your own producers follow certain laws to conserve your commons. But other places (ie governments) can choose to not follow those laws. And so you hav…
It'll probably take me a while to grok it all, but I appreciate you taking the time to educate me, thank you ^^
Re: Who wins and who loses in prediction markets? Evidence from Polymarket
#167> We find that the most successful users traded frequently in sports markets, often for different teams (81% of the gains) Am I missing something or is this almost the whole story? Sports betting apps ban users who are too successful. Polymarket doesn’t. So if you have a killer football game prediction algorithm you’ll only be able to use it for so long on sports betting apps, but Polymarket won’t ban you. Plus the a…
I always wondered if you could compare odds on the most advanced sports betting apps and those on futures markets and exploit any big diffs between the two.