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Minnesota becomes first state to ban prediction markets

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Re: Minnesota becomes first state to ban prediction markets

#161

Post by [deleted] »

insane_dreamer wrote: post #144
superfrank wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> there seems to be no upside whatsoever There's the same upside as pretty much all other forms of gambling. Plenty of people enjoy it and it can be used to generate tax revenue for the state. Don't get me wrong, there's tons of harm that can come from it, but the arguments to allow them are essentially the same arguments for allowing sports betting.

not really because there are mechanisms in place to prevent "insider trading" in sports (not that they're entirely successful)

[deleted]

Re: Minnesota becomes first state to ban prediction markets

#163

Post by yieldcrv »

tmaly wrote: post #153
yieldcrv wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

90% agree, the CFTC doesn't consider these futures contracts, it regulates them under its "contract market" authority, that Congress designated and updated periodically over time This is the authority on the CFTC's own website on prediction markets "For more information" section https://www.cftc.gov/LearnandProtect/PredictionMarkets https://uscode.house.gov/view.xhtml?hl=false&edition=prelim&... And yes, both the Sup…

Has any judge every ruled using the 10th amendment in a federal case?

Federal judges and SCOTUS have some times ruled in favor of states or in favor of the federal government with the 10th amendment being at the center of an argument

Re: Minnesota becomes first state to ban prediction markets

#164

Post by superfrank »

insane_dreamer wrote: post #144
superfrank wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> there seems to be no upside whatsoever There's the same upside as pretty much all other forms of gambling. Plenty of people enjoy it and it can be used to generate tax revenue for the state. Don't get me wrong, there's tons of harm that can come from it, but the arguments to allow them are essentially the same arguments for allowing sports betting.

not really because there are mechanisms in place to prevent "insider trading" in sports (not that they're entirely successful)

90% of the volume on prediction market sites is on sports. Yes, there are smaller markets that are easy to manipulate, but that's no different from traditional sportsbooks.

Yes, What MrBeast says on his next video is easy to fix, but so is something like betting on a D3 basketball player to have less than 10 points or some English 5th league soccer player to have a yellow card.

Re: Minnesota becomes first state to ban prediction markets

#165

Post by superfrank »

nojito wrote: post #135
superfrank wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

First, over 90% of the wagers on Polymarket and Kalshi are already on sports (quoting John Oliver's Last Week Tonight on that one). Despite the headlines, Kalshi and Polymarket are mainly just sportsbooks. Second, while yes, some of the markets available on prediction markets can push people to do awful things, there are plenty that are harmless. I'm cherry picking to make an extreme point, but I would so much rather…

>Kalshi and Polymarket are mainly just sportsbooks. How? They sell contracts between two users. One side each. Completely different from a sportsbook where users are betting that the lines they set are not correct.

90% of the betting volume on Kalshi is betting on sports. I know how prediction markets work and how they're different that traditional sportsbooks, but they ultimately allow customers to do the same things.

If you are saying Kalshi isn't a sportsbook because the house isn't on the other side of the bet, you might as well argue that DraftKings isn't a sportsbook because they don't actually track your wagers in a book.

Re: Minnesota becomes first state to ban prediction markets

#166

Post by bannable »

d4ng wrote: post #99
cameldrv wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The environments of various bets have varying degrees of "control" from insider trading. I wouldn't say that sports is more controlled than most other environments. Point shaving scandals are certainly as old as college sports. The real question is what the purpose of prediction markets are. For sports, there isn't really much of a purpose to the markets except entertainment for the bettors, and harvesting cash for t…

Why must things have a purpose? If something has a purpose, can it be an objective purpose?

When something has negative outcomes, the thing requires justification.

Re: Minnesota becomes first state to ban prediction markets

#167

Post by Spooky23 »

oatmeal1 wrote: post #120
cortesoft wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> because sports betting is _not_ in the CFTC's remit Traditionally it has not been, but the current CFTC says that 'prediction bets on sports' ARE under their purview. This has not been fully challenged in court, though.

If Congress intended for the CFTC to regulate sports betting, it would have had that language in the act that originated the agency. It's telling that only recently the CFTC has discovered such authority. No previous leadership of the CFTC read the act to mean what the current leadership thinks it means.

This is 2026. We don’t need your stinking laws.

Re: Minnesota becomes first state to ban prediction markets

#168

Post by datadrivenangel »

delichon wrote: post #9
everdrive wrote: post #3

I wonder if it can really be enforced. It's clear that prediction markets are a scourge -- there seems to be no upside whatsoever.

I get a lot of value from prediction markets and query for them most days. Today for the Los Angeles Mayor's race and the Kentucky 4th district Representative race. In both cases I saw a big difference between the market and the vibe on my feeds. I believe that the market emits higher quality predictions. Each market is a community with a financial incentive to think outside of the bubble.

prediction more easily allow people to convert money into public opinion, which is suboptimal.

Re: Minnesota becomes first state to ban prediction markets

#169

Post by michaefe »

tmaly wrote: post #153
yieldcrv wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

90% agree, the CFTC doesn't consider these futures contracts, it regulates them under its "contract market" authority, that Congress designated and updated periodically over time This is the authority on the CFTC's own website on prediction markets "For more information" section https://www.cftc.gov/LearnandProtect/PredictionMarkets https://uscode.house.gov/view.xhtml?hl=false&edition=prelim&... And yes, both the Sup…

Has any judge every ruled using the 10th amendment in a federal case?

Yes, I know it's not common but it is used https://www.law.cornell.edu/constitution-conan/amendment-10/...
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