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Grand Theft Oil Futures: Insider traders keep making a killing at our expense

paulkrugman.substack.com

161–170 of 367 posts

Re: Grand Theft Oil Futures: Insider traders keep making a killing at our expense

#161
post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Arguably people who voted for Trump are somewhat responsible, and include a lot of car drivers. (Not to imply that many Democrat politicians aren't also owned by AIPAC and big business.)

I didn’t vote for Trump but I don’t blame the voters. I don’t think many people foresaw him doing this on either side of the political aisle. Other stuff we disapprove of, yes. But not this. I say that because he had famously resisted to enter extended conflict in his first term. Maybe he wanted to but now has the chance since he’s in his final years. (At least, I hope it’s his final years.) But I didn’t hear anyone…

[deleted]

Re: Grand Theft Oil Futures: Insider traders keep making a killing at our expense

#162

>paying what in retrospect will have been an excessive price This can be said about any negative price movement. You still get the same amount of oil you agreed to regardless of if the price goes up or down afterwards.

It's a tax. I don't know if you specifically are one of the "taxation is theft" types, but it's absolutely wild how many of these are totally cool with the tax if it's funding insider trading payouts but not if it's paying for poor person healthcare or whatever.

In the absence of the insider trader selling you oil futures on the basis of his insider knowledge, what would you do?

You'd buy oil futures at broadly the same price from someone else (maybe a worse price! Because the presence of the insider selling is already driving the price down). So how exactly do you lose?

The only people who lose out are those whose limit orders don't get filled because the insider outbid them. The counterparty benefits from trading with the insider.

Re: Grand Theft Oil Futures: Insider traders keep making a killing at our expense

#163
post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Arguably people who voted for Trump are somewhat responsible, and include a lot of car drivers. (Not to imply that many Democrat politicians aren't also owned by AIPAC and big business.)

I didn’t vote for Trump but I don’t blame the voters. I don’t think many people foresaw him doing this on either side of the political aisle. Other stuff we disapprove of, yes. But not this. I say that because he had famously resisted to enter extended conflict in his first term. Maybe he wanted to but now has the chance since he’s in his final years. (At least, I hope it’s his final years.) But I didn’t hear anyone…

People voting for a convicted felon should definitely be held partially responsible for the looting of the country. Also, considering the various rape accusations, his constant lies and his obvious narcissism makes it absolutely insane to vote for him and expect any kind of predictable good to come from it.

There were plenty of warnings about electing Trump and people chose to ignore them.

Re: Grand Theft Oil Futures: Insider traders keep making a killing at our expense

#164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Airlines can't raise the prices of tickets sold months ago. There is still financial reason to hedge.

"All the airlines cancelling flights and adding extra charges amid jet fuel crisis" https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/jet-fue...

You have to read more than the clickbait headline

> While this figure might appear significant, it constitutes a mere 1.5 per cent reduction in total worldwide aviation capacity,

Re: Grand Theft Oil Futures: Insider traders keep making a killing at our expense

#165

By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet's impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine's - Paul Krugman, 1998 Excuse me if I take the Krug-o-tron's opinions with a grain of salt.

Keep your salt shaker handy because he produces opinions at a prodigious rate.

That personality type- highly verbal but able to produce talk to fit anything from a 5 second sound bite up to 2 hours, superficially bright but not actually thoughtful, full of spicy opinions, prone to predictions that sound interesting but don’t come true - is all over TV and now podcasts. Alex Jones is the same type.

Re: Grand Theft Oil Futures: Insider traders keep making a killing at our expense

#166

> "The Trump administration is making no real effort to crack down on whoever is trading using inside information, and these inside traders are operating with a complete sense of impunity, assured that they can get away with it." I think this sums it up.

If only the NYMEX somehow knew who ordered a trade

Re: Grand Theft Oil Futures: Insider traders keep making a killing at our expense

#167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a tax. I don't know if you specifically are one of the "taxation is theft" types, but it's absolutely wild how many of these are totally cool with the tax if it's funding insider trading payouts but not if it's paying for poor person healthcare or whatever.

In the absence of the insider trader selling you oil futures on the basis of his insider knowledge, what would you do? You'd buy oil futures at broadly the same price from someone else (maybe a worse price! Because the presence of the insider selling is already driving the price down). So how exactly do you lose? The only people who lose out are those whose limit orders don't get filled because the insider outbid the…

[deleted]

Re: Grand Theft Oil Futures: Insider traders keep making a killing at our expense

#168
post #72

I remember one take I had in 2024 after the election. We're all familiar with some of the "defund the police" experiments that went too far in places like Portland and San Francisco and resulted in things like epidemics of casual shoplifting. Well, what we just did is basically the white collar crime equivalent. We now have a wide open free for all for all forms of white collar crime. You can just insider trade, laun…

The whole retail theft epidemic (and the ensuing Union Pacific cargo theft ) was a corporate scam perpetrated by local news and law enforcement PR departments.

It wasn't at all. There's still a serious problem with shoplifting. Wal-mart would not be removing self-checkout if this were just a PR campaign.

At my local CVS, they just started locking up the bulk candy. You don't take the the sales hit and the expense of those locking cabinets unless you have a real shrinkage problem.

Re: Grand Theft Oil Futures: Insider traders keep making a killing at our expense

#169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I didn’t vote for Trump but I don’t blame the voters. I don’t think many people foresaw him doing this on either side of the political aisle. Other stuff we disapprove of, yes. But not this. I say that because he had famously resisted to enter extended conflict in his first term. Maybe he wanted to but now has the chance since he’s in his final years. (At least, I hope it’s his final years.) But I didn’t hear anyone…

You make a good point. At the same time, when he broke his electoral promise to stop foreign interfefence and kidnapped Maduro, his voter base did not turn against him. That seems to have emboldened him to pursue more military actions abroad. Now let's see how long until he invades Cuba, and how his voters will react.

Unlike Venezuela and Iran, Cuba doesn't really fuel China, so I assume it's not such a priority.

Re: Grand Theft Oil Futures: Insider traders keep making a killing at our expense

#170
post #43

The worst part is the sharp changes in the price being traded aren't achieved by magic but rather with guns & actual human suffering

Someone has taken the Rothschild motto too literally: “Buy when there is blood in the streets, even if it is your own.” — Baron Nathan Rothschild https://medium.com/@douglasp.schwartz/buy-when-theres-blood-...

source?
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