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Heat pump sales rise across Europe

pv-magazine.com

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Re: Heat pump sales rise across Europe

#161

Post by toasty228 »

adgjlsfhk1 wrote: post #116
pbreit wrote: post #106

“ A total of around 575,000 residential heat pump units were sold across 11 European countries from January to March 2026, up from 494,000 in the same period in 2025” Not a big increase on a relatively small base. What is the takeaway here?

2.3 million a year for something with a 20-30 year lifetime is a lot. It's not quite enough for "in 20 year everyone will have one", but you only need another 5 or 10 years of similar 15% growth to get there.

> with a 20-30 year lifetime

More like 15-20, if you find a proper maintenance guy who won't scam you into buying another one because "yours is dead" even though it isn't

Re: Heat pump sales rise across Europe

#162

Post by magicalhippo »

cenamus wrote: post #15
mono442 wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's usually so much more expensive than an air source heat pump that makes it completely not worth it.

Yeah, recently saw some numbers for air-to-air vs air-to-groundwater, and it break even after more than 25 years, with more than twice the initial cost

> more than twice the initial cost

Here in Norway you can get a decent air-to-air minisplit installed for $2k. I've not heard of anyone who paid less than 10x that for an air-to-ground or water-to-ground system, drilling 500-1000 feet is expensive.

Re: Heat pump sales rise across Europe

#163

Post by soco »

jltsiren wrote: post #23
mono442 wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's usually so much more expensive than an air source heat pump that makes it completely not worth it.

That depends on climate. The longer and colder your winters are, the more you benefit from the reliable efficiency of a ground source. Ground source heat pumps have been the most common choice for heating new single-family homes in Finland for the last ~20 years.

True but even then there are other criteria too: as I plan to sell the house in 10 years, the extra cost for drilling simply didn't make economical sense (to me). So the "regular" pump had to do, and does it fine.

Re: Heat pump sales rise across Europe

#164

Post by seydor »

shellfishgene wrote: post #39
seydor wrote: post #32

in the south, a lot of people opt for split Airconditioning instead of heatpumps. Cheaper and much easier to install/maintain

That's the same thing, no?

split a/c (heat/cooling) is dirt cheap compared to the cost of heat pump installation

Re: Heat pump sales rise across Europe

#166

Post by shellfishgene »

cassepipe wrote: post #60

I think there's one big issue for massive electrification and insulation of buildings: renting. As a renter, I have no incentives to invest thousands in my home's betterment because I will have lost those when I am gone. As an owner, I have no incentives to make my apartment/house better because I don't live in it and I don't pay the energy bills. Something has to be done about that if we want to combat climate chang…

Germany just enacted a law that makes landlords pay part of the heating bill to change the incentives for upgrading the equipment.

Re: Heat pump sales rise across Europe

#167

Post by dzhiurgis »

gosub100 wrote: post #56
shellfishgene wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's the same thing, no?

I think they mean "air exchange" (split AC) vs "heat pump" (dig into the earth to draw/eliminate heat). Not saying that's the right definition though. I am guessing at an auto-correction of what they meant.

There's also air-to-water retrofits for houses where you had centralised gas/wood heaters and water radiators.

Re: Heat pump sales rise across Europe

#168

Post by ZeroGravitas »

pandora-health wrote: post #38

I run daily comparisons between a gas boiler and a heat pump in the UK. Given that gas is cheaper than electricity, a well-installed and well-controlled gas boiler can still be cheaper to run. Heat pump running costs can drop drastically when combined with solar and battery storage, but that requires a much greater upfront investment. https://x.com/AO7186252340513 https://bsky.app/profile/showpiece.bsky.social

On one of your graphs you have the CO2 per day of gas and heat pumps but the two use different scales on the same graph.

Another graph in a footnote table shows the heat pump is delivering 6x the heat of the gas boiler, which feels like it should be mentioned in the text when you say it costs 3x more.

And actually that makes the previously mentioned CO2 graph even more misleading.

Re: Heat pump sales rise across Europe

#169

Post by pjc50 »

pandora-health wrote: post #38

I run daily comparisons between a gas boiler and a heat pump in the UK. Given that gas is cheaper than electricity, a well-installed and well-controlled gas boiler can still be cheaper to run. Heat pump running costs can drop drastically when combined with solar and battery storage, but that requires a much greater upfront investment. https://x.com/AO7186252340513 https://bsky.app/profile/showpiece.bsky.social

I've ended up with a "hybrid" system, which (claims to) automatically choose which of gas and electricity is cheaper on a minute by minute based on COP derived from temperature. I have solar panels but not a battery. On net, it's ended up as roughly the same price as the old gas boiler. Better CO2 emissions but not that much cheaper.

It's not automatically linked to rate updates. There's probably a way of automating that for Vaillant systems?

(Shoutout to ProllyInfamous, who's been making the great point that in many climates HW systems that also cool and dehumidify are a great benefit. Not here at 56N, though)

Re: Heat pump sales rise across Europe

#170

Post by pjc50 »

thrownthatway wrote: post #149

If governments would get their act together and build nuclear power… End users could have simple resistive heating. But no, in the name of invitation and net zero, end user are forced to bear the cost and maintenance burden of much more complicated equipment systems. It’s all arse-backwards.

Nuclear promised "too cheap to meter" in the 1960s and never delivered on that.
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