The tech jobs bust is real. Don't blame AI (yet)

Post by woeirua » Tue, Apr 14, 2026, 3:43 AM UTC

lateforwork wrote: post #129

woeirua wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is absolutely not true. There are plenty of Americans who can do these jobs.

> There are plenty of Americans who can do these jobs. This thinking is wrong. For IT jobs, the work is pre-defined and you go find people who can do the job. For product development this is sometimes the case, but for truly innovative products, such as AI models, this is not the case. You have to hire the best in the world and give them the resources they need, as opposed to defining the project upfront and hiring p…

Post by mikert89 » Tue, Apr 14, 2026, 3:55 AM UTC

y0eswddl wrote: post #158

mikert89 wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

the weird thing is seeing american kids from a top 20 american school (duke, carnegie melon, etc) mixed with a much larger majority of h1bs from absolute no name schools. its almost like the bar for americans is higher

Americans are more expensive. More pressure to justify yourself these days.

Post by lateforwork » Tue, Apr 14, 2026, 4:24 AM UTC

newfriend wrote: post #160

lateforwork wrote: post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the early 1990s a good software engineer was paid $40K starting salary, and good companies like Sun Microsystems paid $45K. If you adjust that for inflation it is around $100K. But good companies in silicon valley today pay $120K plus stock grants (so around $170K or so), and Meta and Google pay much more. So software engineer salaries have gone up dramatically in the last 35 years H-1B visa has been around. In fa…

Are you trying to argue that increased supply of labor is responsible for increasing wages? As others have said, H1-B has been good for companies, and bad for American workers. The same companies who were found to be colluding to keep wages down. Europe is stagnant because of regulation, not because of immigration.

Post by mikert89 » Tue, Apr 14, 2026, 5:16 AM UTC

lateforwork wrote: post #135

acdha wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How many “best in the world” people are we talking about, though? Based on what I’ve seen that’s a very small percentage (maybe 5%) while the rest were being hired by companies who valued having workers with limited negotiating power. (I’m not opposed to immigration at all but it was transparent how for decades the industry resisted any change which would make it easier for a skilled H1-B worker to take a better job)

> having workers with limited negotiating power Sorry, this is 100% false. Companies like Google, Microsoft, Apple, Meta etc. do not hire H-1Bs in order to depress wages. That does happen, but not at these companies. It typically happens when hiring IT workers.

Post by bootsmann » Tue, Apr 14, 2026, 6:55 AM UTC

MeetingsBrowser wrote: post #79

mchusma wrote: post #29

developer jobs are up: postings ~11% YoY, tech workforce +1.9% projected for 2026, BLS 15% long-term growth. Rebound from 2024-25 lows Jevons paradox

Job postings are not jobs. A company can layoff 10k and post jobs for 1k and have job postings be up. Projections are useless. The past does not predict the future. BLS is useless for the same reason, amplified.