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The looming college-enrollment death spiral

theatlantic.com

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Re: The looming college-enrollment death spiral

#161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you have data to support this claim? The data I have shows that expenditures have gone up, but no where near what the nameplate tuition has or what detractors claim: https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d22/tables/dt22_334.10.a... College Board data shows that Tuition and Fees net of financial aid has fallen by significant amounts over the past 20 years (see page 18). Room and board has gone up, but that is broadly…

My comment was on the price of higher ed, not its cost, which is what your ed.gov source shows. CPI component calculations done by the BLS shows "College tuition and fees", including adjustments for scholarships and grants, had a 63% increase from 2009 (to match the CB data baseline) to now, which outpaces overall inflation of 56% over the same timeframe. I'm not sure what methodology CB uses to show falling inflatio…

> My comment was on the price of higher ed, not its cost, which is what your ed.gov source shows.

That's true, but as non-profits, the revenues and expenditures of higher ed have to balance; they can't take out surplus revenue as profit.

I think we largely agree overall, the CPI numbers are close enough that I wouldn't dispute them; they align with my argument that the rhetoric and public discussion of massive tuition increases is not supported by the data when using actual tuition paid rather than nameplate/MSRP prices.

> In many places the local university is the largest landowner in town, and is tax-exempt to boot. They might hold some of the blame in those costs.

This is probably true, and campuses could run housing at less-than-market rates. Whether that would be a better model than just giving students more financial aid that then gets paid back to the University as rent is something we'd have to model. Either way, my point is that we've seen a significant increase in the cost of rent across the entire country in the post-COVID era. That makes the Cost of College seem higher, but is something that Universities are subject to as much as a cause of.

Re: The looming college-enrollment death spiral

#162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you do this, you will destroy half of the top 20 hospital systems in the US, as they are run by Universities. Now maybe separating medical systems from universities is a good idea, but it's not simple by any means. Government data on university expenditures show that at a broad level the increases in instructional and student-related expenditures are modest. Much of the increase is in the aforementioned medical sy…

Those are under the umbrella of research and teaching no?

I wouldn't think so. Hospitals do some teaching and research, but they also administer huge amounts of prescription drugs, physician salaries (both teaching and non-teaching), durable medical equipment, supplies, marketing, home health services, etc.

Re: The looming college-enrollment death spiral

#163
post #90

IMO we should pay adults to go back to school. Make all public universities free and pay a living stipend. Give additional stipends for dependents. Easy win for everyone.

but why

It’s good for society. You get a more educated population, you get to redistribute wealth (reduce GINI is always a win), you get increased per capita productivity as people expand their skills.

Re: The looming college-enrollment death spiral

#164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My comment was on the price of higher ed, not its cost, which is what your ed.gov source shows. CPI component calculations done by the BLS shows "College tuition and fees", including adjustments for scholarships and grants, had a 63% increase from 2009 (to match the CB data baseline) to now, which outpaces overall inflation of 56% over the same timeframe. I'm not sure what methodology CB uses to show falling inflatio…

> My comment was on the price of higher ed, not its cost, which is what your ed.gov source shows. That's true, but as non-profits, the revenues and expenditures of higher ed have to balance; they can't take out surplus revenue as profit. I think we largely agree overall, the CPI numbers are close enough that I wouldn't dispute them; they align with my argument that the rhetoric and public discussion of massive tuitio…

> as non-profits, the revenues and expenditures of higher ed have to balance; they can't take out surplus revenue as profit.

Just pointing out that nonprofits do not have to balance revenues and expenditures at all. This is not a mere technical detail. Profit cannot inure to owners with nonprofits as it can with for-profits, but this does not prevent the organization from building up a surplus over time, nor does it prevent them from paying employees very handsomely. Otherwise it wouldn't be possible to have almost one hundred universities with endowments over a billion dollars.

> my argument that the rhetoric and public discussion of massive tuition increases is not supported by the data when using actual tuition paid rather than nameplate/MSRP prices

That's fair, but I suppose there's more to it than that. Any number of datasets point to the cost of admin rising far above the cost of faculty or maintenance; and a lot of them actually show on an inflation-adjusted basis that schools are spending less now on instruction than they did a decade or two ago. So perhaps there's enough truth to the idea that you're getting substantially less education per dollar than you used to.

Re: The looming college-enrollment death spiral

#165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Everyone" is hyperbole, of course. But it's already too high a number.

When I graduated in the early 2010s I recall the number was closer to ~35%. Honestly given the economy today and the expectations of employers of having a college degree for even basic stuff, these numbers seem pretty low. In Europe only about 43% have a college degree. So even with heavily subsidized schools there is really only a certain percentage of people that take this path. [1]: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/w…

> the expectations of employers of having a college degree for even basic stuff

This is mostly an unintentional side-effect of civil rights law, stemming from Griggs v. Duke Power Co.

Re: The looming college-enrollment death spiral

#166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This seems like the conclusion someone would come to by watching 1980s college movies, not someone who looked at data. Community colleges, vocational schools, and commuter students represent a large proportion of college students, and are removed from the Animal House experience. The primary goal for attending college, as stated by both students and parents, is for preparation for entrance into the workforce and adul…

This seems like the conclusion someone would come to by not having an honest conversation about the subject. It is entirely possible that one can attend classes while attending various parties on the weekend or even various events at night after classes. Your knee jerk reaction to my comment that everything is going to be Animal House, Porky's, or Revenge of the Nerds level of shenanigans says more about you.

You still haven't presented any data or even rebutted my claims. Just the banal observation that students periodically attend social events coupled with a mild insult. There are better websites for your preferred type of social media experience.

Re: The looming college-enrollment death spiral

#167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This seems like the conclusion someone would come to by watching 1980s college movies, not someone who looked at data. Community colleges, vocational schools, and commuter students represent a large proportion of college students, and are removed from the Animal House experience. The primary goal for attending college, as stated by both students and parents, is for preparation for entrance into the workforce and adul…

> The primary goal for attending college, as stated by both students and parents, is for preparation for entrance into the workforce and adult life. Let's observe revealed preferences, not stated ones. > One can go to the engineering or computer science building in almost any U.S. or Canadian university and observe a student population that doesn't party on a regular basis. This is a small fraction of the total colle…

> Most people in college are only there because it's the default next step after high school. In fact, a lot of people in graduate school are only there because it's the default next step after a bachelor's degree.

Exactly! Not because of parties!

Re: The looming college-enrollment death spiral

#168

I think college's value proposition and entire model has been eroded. Major school's CS grads are finding jobs upon graduation at an 11% rate (I don't have the primary source on this, but it is published by a site I read that never fudges these kinds of things, going back many years). AI probably has a lot to do with that, but it's exposing something more fundamental. CS wasn't supposed to be a programming boot camp…

> Major school's CS grads are finding jobs upon graduation at an 11% rate (I don't have the primary source on this, but it is published by a site I read that never fudges these kinds of things, going back many years). I think you may have misread something. 11% is closer to the unemployment or underemployment rate for recent grads, not the employment rate. There may have been a short window during the intense layoffs…

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Re: The looming college-enrollment death spiral

#169
post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>"democratization" doesn't mean more people have access to it. > I just don't like it and think it is relatively new usage and a change in the older meaning of the word. People have been using "democratize" to describe "more accessible to the masses" for a long time. Here's an example from 106 years ago in 1920 : https://www.google.com/books/edition/Soviet_Russia/qflaAAAAM... And 40 years ago a 1986 article of "micro…

It could be that HN commnter replying to submission about education in the United States indicating that he is "irked" by the term "democratisation" is not located within the United States but rather in a non-English speaking country not initiallu founded upon "democratic" principles (cf. United States) and with a dissimilar history of "democracy". As such, his interpetation of this term could have different meaning…

Indeed. Like ks2048 I find the use of "democratize" outisde of governance to be bizzare and even annoying.

I am British by birth, and IIRC Hacker News is pretty much the only place I see "democratize" used to mean "make more widely available".

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