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In Japan, the robot isn't coming for your job; it's filling the one nobody wants

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Re: In Japan, the robot isn't coming for your job; it's filling the one nobody wants

#161

Post by throwaway290 »

areoform wrote: post #55
eucryphia wrote: post #15

The job no one wants? Grunting out 2.6 babies before you’re 35. Who’s paying for your nursing home? Tax the robot’s income? Will your demographic replacements vote for that?

> Grunting out 2.6 babies before you’re 35. * destroying your body, stripping your bones, getting diabetes and temporarily (or permanently) disabling yourself with issues no healthcare provider will take seriously for decades to come for 2.6 babies in your youth. ––– Someone called this a "belief." There's a 10% to 4% probability that the average teenage girl will die from childbirth, given the cumulative risk of pre…

off topic. all risks you mention are in developing countries without good medicine. that's not Japan.

Re: In Japan, the robot isn't coming for your job; it's filling the one nobody wants

#162

Post by acuozzo »

TurdF3rguson wrote: post #127
akudha wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I want AI to do my laundry and dishes so that I can do art and writing, not for AI to do my art and writing so that I can do my laundry and dishes. From: https://x.com/AuthorJMac/status/1773679197631701238 As a species, we need to evaluate our attitudes to work. The quote above resonates at some level, but maybe there are some people who enjoy doing dishes and laundry, who knows. Most people are just surviving. It is…

The funny thing is that dishes and laundry are already automated and people are still complaining about them. Do we need a humaniform robot to move the clothes from the washer to the dryer? Maybe we just need smarter appliances.

> laundry [is] already automated

Partially. Ironing/steaming is only partially automated. Folding/hanging is not.

Re: In Japan, the robot isn't coming for your job; it's filling the one nobody wants

#163

Post by acuozzo »

array_key_first wrote: post #153
alex43578 wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All developed countries are in demographic decline (ex immigration), and need automation/robotics. There's only so many immigrants you can import before you lose your country's identity.

> There's only so many immigrants you can import before you lose your country's identity. Is this true? The US has been doing this for over 100 years and it's been fine, I think. I mean, our countries identity has basically become "we're all immigrants" but that's not a new phenomena.

> our countries identity has basically become "we're all immigrants" but that's not a new phenomena

This is a very "New World" perspective which won't cut it for the "Old World" until their countries hit their own crisis points.

Re: In Japan, the robot isn't coming for your job; it's filling the one nobody wants

#164

Post by deaux »

cryzinger wrote: post #138
youre-wrong3 wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even tho you added an edit. You’re still wrong. Garbage collection is typically a high paying job because no one wants to do it. But people still consider it “below” them and don’t want to do it even when there’s a high unemployment rate.

This is over 20 years old, and I'm sure doesn't hold true in all areas, but at least at one point there was high demand to be a "san man" ("san" as in "sanitation") in NYC: > It's a coveted job to be a New York City san man. When they last gave the qualifying test, 30,000 people took it. The General waited five years after passing the exam before a job came open, which is typical. And though the work is grueling, the…

And that's how it should be. Trash men should be making $200K and have high social status whereas the devs helping Bezos to his 5th super yacht or Zuck poison more kids should get minimum wage and treated as pariahs. Unfortunately at the country level it's reversed.

Re: In Japan, the robot isn't coming for your job; it's filling the one nobody wants

#165

Post by felipeerias »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #155
ericd wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right, it looks pretty catastrophic for some areas (eg South Korea) if it doesn’t stabilize. But I’m also skeptical of anything that extrapolates anything related to human behavior out 75 years.

Once you hit ~1.5 TFR, low fertility trap kicks in. > Demographers in the early 2000s coined the “low-fertility trap,” hypothesizing that a series of self-reinforcing economic and social mechanisms make it increasingly difficult to raise the fertility rate once it dips below a certain threshold. The academics posited that lower fertility results in increased individual aspirations for personal consumption but at the…

Several European countries have already fallen in this trap. As pensioners comprise an increasingly large fraction of voters, pandering to them becomes far more politically attractive than investing in the future.

Re: In Japan, the robot isn't coming for your job; it's filling the one nobody wants

#166

Post by mc3301 »

canpan wrote: post #110
stephc_int13 wrote: post #107

I think that many signs are indicating that Japan will re-emerge as a major technology powerhouse in the coming decades. And being confronted early to demographic transformation will end-up being an advantage. On the opposite side I think that immigration is a temporary band-aid that doesn’t solve any of the structural issues.

Can you share some other signs you think may indicate it rising as a powerhouse? Living in Japan, I am interested what others see. Regarding immigration, Japan is actually making it a lot stricter now. Not sure how that will play out.

I'm also curious why they imagine a future-Japan-tech-powerhouse. I think Japan has a lot of potential for growing and improving as a place to live (especially if they embrace growth, instead thinking tiny-steps will convince women in Japan to magically start having babies[0])

Additionally, all signs do, in fact, point to fewer new immigrants to Japan in the coming decade.

[0](https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20260401/p2g/00m/0na/04...)

Re: In Japan, the robot isn't coming for your job; it's filling the one nobody wants

#167

Post by felipeerias »

array_key_first wrote: post #153
alex43578 wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All developed countries are in demographic decline (ex immigration), and need automation/robotics. There's only so many immigrants you can import before you lose your country's identity.

> There's only so many immigrants you can import before you lose your country's identity. Is this true? The US has been doing this for over 100 years and it's been fine, I think. I mean, our countries identity has basically become "we're all immigrants" but that's not a new phenomena.

The US implemented severe immigration restrictions in the 1920s that were lifted gradually over the 1950s–1960s.

Re: In Japan, the robot isn't coming for your job; it's filling the one nobody wants

#168

Post by necovek »

zeryx wrote: post #79
wilg wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

His theory on the cause is wrong, and using the wrong number is dishonest here. I agree he more or less correctly cited labor force participation rate (still basically the best in the world) but badly misrepresented what that number is such that he should be apologizing and not doubling down. Dishonest.

I actually think we should only be using labor force metrics for everything, if someone stops looking because their depressed and can live at home - suddenly that's ok? I don't think we should stop counting people like that

The problem is differentiating between those who've given up and who do not want to work (have other means to sustain themselves).

In general, either is fine by me as long we are consistent: they are both proxies for percentage of people needing work and should correlate to a large extent.

Re: In Japan, the robot isn't coming for your job; it's filling the one nobody wants

#169

Post by daedrdev »

mitthrowaway2 wrote: post #148
throwaway173738 wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why not simply pay the homemakers? Why is it so important that everyone produce economic output at the widget factory? Allow me to translate into a language you can understand: The people who are all “unemployed” are actually performing valuable services like maintaining the future labor pool, learning how to become skilled workers, and so on. These people should not have a second job, they should be paid for the val…

IMO, basic income for parents is absolutely a policy that Japan should enact. And the question of how much the payment should be has a straightforward answer: adjust until the birth rate reaches replacement. If the payment ends up high enough that some mothers or fathers opt to leave the labor force to focus on raising their kids, then so be it; that's probably healthier for society in the long term. It would be expe…

There is no guarantee people with no wants will have kids, in fact I expect the opposite

Re: In Japan, the robot isn't coming for your job; it's filling the one nobody wants

#170

Post by ashleywr »

canpan wrote: post #28

I went to a chain Family Restaurant recently here in Japan. The food is brought by a robot for a while now. Recently you get your seat selected at a touchscreen. You can pay at your table's tablet using PayPay. There is still some waiter staff, but it being reduced to the past. The only part that did not change much yet is the kitchen. I said to myself to stop going, if there is no human staff left. On the other hand…

Given waiters are not tipped here, I actually quite enjoy the quietness/quickness/streamlined atmosphere of a Jonathan's or Gust that has all that automation. I would not want the kitchen staff to be replaced by robots though, food prep should probably always been overseen by humans. But in general, I like not having to interact with people sometimes.
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