U.S. stocks are set to deliver their worst quarter in nearly four years • Hacker News Board

Re: U.S. stocks are set to deliver their worst quarter in nearly four years

#161

Post by seanmcdirmid » Tue, Mar 31, 2026, 2:58 PM UTC

WillAdams wrote: post #155

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Investment for retirement…in theory at least, should go to projects that will create more goods and services in the future to actually support that retirement. It isn’t about the economy being large enough today, but growth so that it is larger enough tomorrow when you do actually retire. Any investment alternative, like a private or public pension, works under the same principle. Even traditional retirement plans de…

The problem is, in the past, the on-going increase in payouts was covered by increasing populations --- much of the world is now at a stable, or even negative population change state for the foreseeable future, so that well is going dry --- the passing away of the Baby Boomers in the U.S. represents the larges transfer of personal wealth in human history, and a lot of it is going into geriatrics/nursing homes --- wha…

Thats the old fashioned plan: have lots of kids to fund your retirement. Today, we are investing in AI, automation, and robots, which is similar if you think about. We don’t need a population increase if robots are doing the work instead. China is a good example of making these investments aggressively right now to deal with their demographic cliff.

Re: U.S. stocks are set to deliver their worst quarter in nearly four years

#162

Post by Ekaros » Tue, Mar 31, 2026, 3:02 PM UTC

WillAdams wrote: post #157

Underqualified wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The market is partly a Ponzi scheme where more people buying inflates the price, regardless of the underlying value. The modern stock market is not focused on dividends (anything but), so there is no'real' return from the actual companies to the shareholders. (Buybacks could be considered similar to dividends). There is still an element of real economic growth underlying the stock market, but passive investing, deriv…

The problem is that many countries are now steady-state, or even negative for population forecasts, no?

Yes. Fundamentally goods and services at time you retire must be produced by someone. If there is less people producing that means that labour will get more expensive. Or then you must really kick down that population. And well if they don't take it well you might have no retirement...

Re: U.S. stocks are set to deliver their worst quarter in nearly four years

#163

Post by myvoiceismypass » Tue, Mar 31, 2026, 3:07 PM UTC

iso1631 wrote: post #125

_menelaus wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

His approval rating is at a historical low for any president at this point in their term, I think. People don't like ICE, pedophiles, or wars in the Middle East.

Wikipedia says about 40% of America approves of him

Latest I saw was 33%: https://www.umass.edu/news/article/president-trumps-approval...

Re: U.S. stocks are set to deliver their worst quarter in nearly four years

#164

Post by jmye » Tue, Mar 31, 2026, 3:07 PM UTC

lovich wrote: post #86

CoastalCoder wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm guessing that one reason we got Trump is that the Democrats presented two poor alternatives in a row. It was clear that Biden was mentally slipping. Even if you were a fan of his general politics, 4 additional years of mental decline while in office was a scary prospect. And then Kamala Harris was given very little time to sell herself to the voters. I'm wondering if Trump would have won had the Democrats present…

If you were worried about Biden’s mental decline but looked at Trumps behavior and statements as from someone mentally competent and not also slipping into dementia, then you just wanted Trumps politics and vibes your way into thinking it was ok. I’m so excited for the future where nobody apparently voted for Trump and never backed him, the same way everyone mysteriously didn’t vote for GWB after his fuckups got too…

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Re: U.S. stocks are set to deliver their worst quarter in nearly four years

#165

Post by WarmWash » Tue, Mar 31, 2026, 3:08 PM UTC

WillAdams wrote: post #158

WarmWash wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's impossible to answer because the language is too imprecise. Poor people in the US live like gods compared to people living in 3rd world jungles, but they complain just as much if not more. So you quickly realize that "comfortable" is a relative term, and envy poisons any honest measure of "comfort".

I've traveled quite a bit, and I'm well aware of both poverty in the U.S. and in other countries --- that's part of what informed my query --- what is the end-game for capitalism as many countries of the world go into steady state or even negative population changes in the future?

Are you asking what the living baseline would be if there was some kind of global socialist government, and everyone was cut an equal slice of the global income and global resource pie? It would be pretty hard to dial that in because there are so many intertwined factors. But we could be pretty confident it wouldn't land near current first world standards.

No one knows what the end game of capitalism looks like, because we landed on the system because it is largely self-regulating and has worked well for carrying society forwards for the last 400ish years. Everything else has done poorly and kind of sucked.

Re: U.S. stocks are set to deliver their worst quarter in nearly four years

#166

Post by alsetmusic » Tue, Mar 31, 2026, 3:14 PM UTC

irishcoffee wrote: post #136

reedf1 wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Believe it or not; it is an enormous luxury to be able to ignore politics.

How do you figure? Ignoring it or obsessing over it, the outcomes don't change. Just emotional energy expended.

Try being in a relationship with someone who may become a target of the administration due to their status as a resident (but not citizen) of the USA and tell me the outcomes don't change.

You're right. I need to calm down. It's all theater that doesn't impact real people. We can just go about our merry way because no one has been kidnapped by federal agents in defiance of judicial orders.

Re: U.S. stocks are set to deliver their worst quarter in nearly four years

#167

Post by alsetmusic » Tue, Mar 31, 2026, 3:16 PM UTC

everdrive wrote: post #130

blitzar wrote: post #8

I don't know why you are asking about pedophiles and sex trafficing - The Dow is over 50,000 right now, the S&P is at almost 7,000, and the Nasdaq is smashing records. Americans' 401(k) savings are booming, thats what we should be talking about.

It's a quite baffling argument on Bondi's part regardless. As if I wouldn't care about prosecuting sex offenders merely because my 401k was doing well.

I mean, the people with REAL money and power clearly think that way because it's been working.

Re: U.S. stocks are set to deliver their worst quarter in nearly four years

#168

Post by mrits » Tue, Mar 31, 2026, 3:21 PM UTC

alsetmusic wrote: post #166

irishcoffee wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do you figure? Ignoring it or obsessing over it, the outcomes don't change. Just emotional energy expended.

Try being in a relationship with someone who may become a target of the administration due to their status as a resident (but not citizen) of the USA and tell me the outcomes don't change. You're right. I need to calm down. It's all theater that doesn't impact real people. We can just go about our merry way because no one has been kidnapped by federal agents in defiance of judicial orders.

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Re: U.S. stocks are set to deliver their worst quarter in nearly four years

#169

Post by the_doctah » Tue, Mar 31, 2026, 3:30 PM UTC

WillAdams wrote: post #158

WarmWash wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's impossible to answer because the language is too imprecise. Poor people in the US live like gods compared to people living in 3rd world jungles, but they complain just as much if not more. So you quickly realize that "comfortable" is a relative term, and envy poisons any honest measure of "comfort".

I've traveled quite a bit, and I'm well aware of both poverty in the U.S. and in other countries --- that's part of what informed my query --- what is the end-game for capitalism as many countries of the world go into steady state or even negative population changes in the future?

It's better than the endgame of Communism.

Re: U.S. stocks are set to deliver their worst quarter in nearly four years

#170

Post by the_doctah » Tue, Mar 31, 2026, 3:33 PM UTC

bnycum wrote: post #134

francisofascii wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Eggs are pretty cheap right now. Housing and healthcare are why Americans struggle with affordability. Food, gas, etc. are all just drops in the bucket.

Eggs may be cheaper than when they were during culling/avian flu, but food sure isn't. Where I am most grocery items are now 50-70% more expensive than last January. The milk I buy weekly at the grocery store has increased 67% since then. Beef is roughly 50% more, and I haven't even had steak since late 2024 at this point. That isn't sustainable.

Post-Covid I was shocked that skirt steak was $17/lb at my grocery store. Today it is $19/lb.