Slovenia becomes first EU country to introduce fuel rationing • Hacker News Board

Re: Slovenia becomes first EU country to introduce fuel rationing

#161

Post by jmyeet » Fri, Mar 27, 2026, 11:43 PM UTC

SirensOfTitan wrote: post #36

Scanning some of the early comments here, and acting as-if the oil and LNG disruptions is just a question of renewable investment is naive. This is the worst energy crisis in modern history, and little of the western world has really started feeling the effects yet: https://thedispatch.com/newsletter/dispatch-energy/iran-war-... Petro is pretty much upstream of everything: plastics, fertilizers, pharmaceuticals, cook…

Most people just don't understand what a monumental rewrite of global politics this is and (IMHO) it will go down as the worst foreign policy mistake in US history and it's not even close. Some might say "what about Vietnam?" No, this is worse, geopolitically. WhY/ Because there was never any possibility of success. The US simply doesn't have the military capability to depose the regime or open the Strait and Pentagon military planners all knew this beforehand.

The big winners are:

- China. They're already going renewable at a rapid pace. They have a massive stockpile of oil (~1.4B barrels) and they're still receiving oil from Iran. This diminishes US influence in the the world and increases China's influence;

- Russia: this crisis will probably force the West to make peace with Russia and they'll retain any current Ukrainian territory just to secure Russian energy exports, particularly natural gas;

- Iran: the sanctions are over. Prior to all this Iran was selling oil to China for below market rate, less than $50/barrel. Now? They're legally able to sell it and get market rates, which are more like ~$120/barrel. Iran may well still get a regime of charging ships to traverse the Strait after the war is over;

Who are the losers?

- Europe: this is going to massively increase energy costs for years;

- Ukraine: see above (Russia);

- The US: massively decreased influence, particularly in the Middle East;

- Israel: there will be no regime change in Iran, Iran will come out in a better position and this may well be the first crack in the US-Israel relationship because Israel dog-walked the US into this war. The Iron Dome has shown to be not as impenetrable as once thought;

- The Gulf states: they face a tough choice between remaining US client states or breaking free. Breaking free probably means their monarchies and despotic regimes will fall. The myth of the US security guarantee has been broken. These regimes will probably stick with the US for their own survival and we may see some of them fall anyway (eg Bahrain).

I agree with your main point: "just go renewable" is both naive and utterly useless advice. That's a decades-long project. Also, who makes all the solar panels (and probably windmills)? China.

It is a little different because the US is a net energy exporter now and definitely wasn't in the 1970s. Still, there will be higher prices for everything and the US can't realistically block exports to keep prices low because other countries will stop sending us stuff.

Were the president anyone else, they would be impeached and removed from office. That's how bad this is. But we live in a post-truth world the the president is the leader of a cult.

Re: Slovenia becomes first EU country to introduce fuel rationing

#162

Post by jdlshore » Fri, Mar 27, 2026, 11:49 PM UTC

mono442 wrote: post #126

gpm wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, but now wind and solar have made it feasible just about everywhere.

There's little sunshine in winter. Wind is better but it's still intermittent.

Panels are cheap enough that you can overprovision for winter sun.

Re: Slovenia becomes first EU country to introduce fuel rationing

#163

Post by lostlogin » Fri, Mar 27, 2026, 11:52 PM UTC

throwawaytea wrote: post #144

lostlogin wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Raising the price of fuel will do wonders for solving that.

In California my electricity to drive my Chevy Volt is more expensive than gasoline, if gasoline is less than $5 a gallon. So for basically the last 100k miles I've owned it, electricity was more expensive. The same goes for many plugin hybrids. Luxury EVs still win out because luxury sedans usually only get 25 mpg mixed max.

US fuel is so cheap compared to the rest of the world.

If my maths is correct, we are paying US$6.10 a gallon here in NZ.

Re: Slovenia becomes first EU country to introduce fuel rationing

#164

Post by stavros » Fri, Mar 27, 2026, 11:53 PM UTC

zejn wrote: post #26

drnick1 wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Electric cars aren't cheap, and electricity prices are very high in Europe.

Not true. No new car is cheap, and electricity is now cheaper than gas or diesel.

My parents just bought a new BYD Dolphin, and it cost 3 EUR to go 150 km, whereas my diesel car costs 15 EUR for the same route.

I don't know how people can say electric cars aren't cheaper. It's a 5x difference!

Re: Slovenia becomes first EU country to introduce fuel rationing

#165

Post by megous » Fri, Mar 27, 2026, 11:54 PM UTC

wafflemaker wrote: post #134

baxtr wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hormuz might not matter that much in the future since Saudi and the other countries will build even more pipelines and ports which are on the other side. Short-term is dire though.

That would require some super effective anti air. Otherwise such a pipeline is an easy target. And even the most anti air protected place on earth - Negev plant near Dimona city got hit with a warning shot. And they have 3 or 4 layers of anti air, most of them doubled (both US and Isreaeli). It's impossible to protect multiple pipelines to that extent. And Isreal just said that they will keep attacking Iran no matter…

It did not. Dimona city got hit. https://t.me/QudsNen/215116

Plant is far away from there.

Re: Slovenia becomes first EU country to introduce fuel rationing

#166

Post by cucumber3732842 » Fri, Mar 27, 2026, 11:55 PM UTC

throwawaytea wrote: post #139

perching_aix wrote: post #39

50L/day - with no other limits - sounds like a lot. Are there really fuel tourists coming in en masse and taking more than this? With zero tracking of enforcement whatsoever, people will just hit up a few different nearby gas stations instead of one anyways and that's it.

Hey man,sometimes you just have to drive 400 miles a day, everyday.

That was me today, Thursday, Monday and last Friday though I suppose a couple of them were "only" 300 miles. I'm not normal though.

And if I gave a crap about western white collar standards for acceptable vehicle loading I'd have had to do it all twice or take a vehicle that uses twice the fuel lol.

Re: Slovenia becomes first EU country to introduce fuel rationing

#167

Post by poopinurmouth » Fri, Mar 27, 2026, 11:55 PM UTC

UncleOxidant wrote: post #152

IsTom wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oil going through Hormuz is 20%, not 80% of global supply. It's true that demand is pretty inelastic, but it's not like it can't be cut at all.

Who mentioned 80%? During the 1973–74 Arab oil embargo, the disruption removed approximately 4.5 million barrels per day (mb/d) from the market, which constituted about 7% of the global oil supply at the time. This disruption significantly impacted global supplies. 20% is a lot more than 7%. This could be worse than 1973-74. As a 10year-old in 1973 I remember spending a lot of time in the backseat of the station wago…

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Re: Slovenia becomes first EU country to introduce fuel rationing

#168

Post by singleshot_ » Fri, Mar 27, 2026, 11:57 PM UTC

AnimalMuppet wrote: post #159

singleshot_ wrote: post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Petro is pretty much upstream of everything: plastics, fertilizers, pharmaceuticals, cooking oils, Really! What petroleum-based oil do you cook with?

Plant-based ones that were harvested by machines that burn petroleum.

That’s a pretty amazing definition of upstream. I imagine you probably understand that plastics, pharmaceuticals, and fertilizers are made out of petroleum derivatives, right?

Since you seem pretty smart: are there petroleum based cooking oils?

Re: Slovenia becomes first EU country to introduce fuel rationing

#169

Post by cpursley » Sat, Mar 28, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC

baxtr wrote: post #83

MattGaiser wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Petro is pretty much upstream of everything: plastics, fertilizers, pharmaceuticals, cooking oils, lubricants, cosmetics. Dow chemical just doubled the cost of polyethylene as of April 1st. Taiwan relies on LNG for 40% of its energy production and has like 10 days of fuel left--semis are implicated. This is, on the high end, 20% of the use of fossil fuels. We overwhelmingly burn oil and gas. If we displaced the bur…

Hormuz might not matter that much in the future since Saudi and the other countries will build even more pipelines and ports which are on the other side. Short-term is dire though.

As if those can’t be blown up with $300 FPVs or $10k Shahids…

Re: Slovenia becomes first EU country to introduce fuel rationing

#170

Post by roenxi » Sat, Mar 28, 2026, 12:03 AM UTC

acron0 wrote: post #149

kpil wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We don't "need a global reset" It's an apocalyptical mind-bug. All times have an eschatology - ours seems to be climate collapse. It used to be nuclear war. The media is selling a story. In reality everything is still getting better. People are healthier, richer, and better off in almost every measurable way, all over the world, including Africa and Asia. Yes, there are some dark clouds. A long list. But the problems…

Is global economic collapse not an eschatological scenario? When you say "everything is still getting better", what do you mean? Because the price of fuel and food, isn't getting better. It seems to be getting worse. Your version of "reality" doesn't seem to reflect the experience of a lot of people. > people will buckle down and sort it. It's an interesting series of words that don't say a lot. There is much to wond…

> Is global economic collapse not an eschatological scenario?

Not really, no. In this case 20-25% of the world's oil disappearing doesn't sound like it should be an 'everything collapses' scenario, we still have >75% of the oil around and oil isn't the only energy source. Everyone has always seen a "worst economic collapse of my lifetime" and although this one looks like it is going to be unusually horrific it isn't going to cause the end of anything structural unless there are other causes already in place. For example in theory this might be the end of the US military's ability to maintain global order in the same way as the Suiz Crisis humiliated the British empire - it'd be a recognition of realities on the ground rather than the current crisis changing anything.