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Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

theguardian.com

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Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

#161

Post by echelon »

bethekidyouwant wrote: post #121
echelon wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A "market" is hypothesized to be "efficient" at price discovery. An efficient "prediction market" would more quickly resolve to its expected outcome due to not only skin-in-the-game bets by experts, but also the influence of insiders. Furthermore, bets are likely to shape outcomes. Betting someone will be assassinated (not allowed on Polymarket) would likely increase the probability of that outcome had there been no…

I’ve heard this assassination thing said, but I don’t see it. Someone still has to kill said person and somehow profit from the unlikelihood of this outcome. I’m not saying it’s impossible but I’m just saying that it’s never happened and maybe never will.

There is no assassination market to test it against.

If there was, I think you'd see quite a few public figures on the list.

And I think it _would_ cause folks to die. Which is why it's banned or regulated. (I'm actually not sure what the legal status is, just that Polymarket and US prediction markets disallow it.)

Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

#162

Post by array_key_first »

ragebol wrote: post #64
delecti wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They're orthogonal, so there's no barrier. They're all nefarious, and most are also incompetent.

Getting yourself installed as president while knowing you are incompetent (I mean, look at all those bankrupt businesses, he should know) is nefarious in itself. His entourage is nefarious for supporting the incompetency for their own gain.

If you're incompetent maybe you don't know you're incompetent? I think probably a lot of people told him, but he's also very stubborn, so. He's been rocking that god fucking awful spray tan for decades now.

I mean, Christ, we have good spray tans, I know we do.

Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

#163

Post by cindyllm »

array_key_first wrote: post #162
ragebol wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Getting yourself installed as president while knowing you are incompetent (I mean, look at all those bankrupt businesses, he should know) is nefarious in itself. His entourage is nefarious for supporting the incompetency for their own gain.

If you're incompetent maybe you don't know you're incompetent? I think probably a lot of people told him, but he's also very stubborn, so. He's been rocking that god fucking awful spray tan for decades now. I mean, Christ, we have good spray tans, I know we do.

[dead]

Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

#164

Post by fluidcruft »

input_sh wrote: post #138
bethekidyouwant wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You don’t have to be an insider to know that the US wants to broker a peace deal now that they’ve gotten themselves deep in the shit. Also, how could a Washington insider know if a peace deal will actually be brokered they have to negotiate with the other party after all.

Betting on a ceasefire isn't the interesting part, placing a five digit bet on a ceasefire by March 31st using brand-new accounts is. Do you have any other plausible explanation for this behaviour? I can't think of any, if it's just like your average WallStreetBets gambler, why would they be making these bets from brand-new accounts?

Why wouldn't you constantly create new accounts for each bet? Isn't that like privacy/safety 101 for crypto?

Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

#165

Post by googlehater »

Karrot_Kream wrote: post #134
hatthew wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not familiar with Brent Crude futures, is it possible to trade them anonymously the way you can on Polymarket?

Look, no offense here, but if you're this unaware of how oil markets work, and it seems like markets in general work, I suggest doing at least some initial googling before digesting this story. I realize for some the whole appeal of this kind of story is "look Trump bad" and then to get into the comments about how bad he is to play political sportsball, but insider trading is sadly a bipartisan phenomenon. No questio…

what's the point of your comment? it's a thread... on a forum of non experts... and he asked a question.

Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

#166

Post by SilverElfin »

duderific wrote: post #153
SilverElfin wrote: post #39

Every single action taken under this administration has been either primarily for corrupt grifting or has been turned into that, to the benefit of the Trump family, their friends, and their donors. It’s ridiculous how open all of it is. And the people and companies benefiting from it are pretending like they’re not the bad guys.

In our current system, the only defenses against corruption: - Standards and norms, which obviously the current administration doesn't give a rat's ass about - Failing that, Congress has to step in and impeach and convict. This won't happen because the Republicans have completely rolled over So, here we are.

If there are no paths to retroactively investigating and clawing back every last penny, this just leads to taxpayers giving up paying taxes eventually. What’s the point of a fundamentally corrupt system just for the rich and connected?

Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

#167

Post by ratrace »

gos9 wrote: post #159
mikkupikku wrote: post #17

If the administration decides to end this stupid war just so they can cash out some profitable bets... I don't even know what I would think. The whole thing is so stupid it makes my head hurt.

You think polymarket is where this game is being played? For a couple hundred thousand dollars? Since when do profoundly stupid people use this site?

[dead]

Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

#168

Post by whattheheckheck »

unethical_ban wrote: post #139
Aurornis wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, due to the $220 million advertising spend scandal and her claims about it.

She should have been tied to a wooden post and shipped out of DC on an uncovered railcar for labelling a peaceful protester assassinated by ICE a "domestic terrorist". Her scandal was not being subtle enough with the theft of government funds for Trump's taste, and he found a way to get rid of her that he could claim he had no part in.

I dont see the us empire recovering. This is in the starting / middle of a collapse. If any additional crises pop up inconjunction to this we are going to fall like the bronze age collapse

Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

#169

Post by hatthew »

Karrot_Kream wrote: post #134
hatthew wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not familiar with Brent Crude futures, is it possible to trade them anonymously the way you can on Polymarket?

Look, no offense here, but if you're this unaware of how oil markets work, and it seems like markets in general work, I suggest doing at least some initial googling before digesting this story. I realize for some the whole appeal of this kind of story is "look Trump bad" and then to get into the comments about how bad he is to play political sportsball, but insider trading is sadly a bipartisan phenomenon. No questio…

My understanding is that an individual works through a brokerage to buy/sell securities on an exchange. The brokerage knows who they are acting on behalf of, but not who is on the other side of the transaction. The public doesn't automatically know, except for government officials who are obligated to disclose their trading. In contrast, the fact that polymarket is crypo-based makes it a lot easier for people to be fully anonymous.

What I'm not sure of is whether disclosure regulations would apply to all government officials who could plausibly have insider knowledge (probably not?), whether oil futures would be covered by those regulations (probably?), whether it's possible to be fully anonymous to the brokerage (probably not?), and how much access law enforcement has to information regarding who is making what trades (not much without a court orders?).

I don't think that is a trivial amount of research to do, and I would guess the vast majority of people viewing this thread don't know the answers and will not try to find them out. I was hoping an expert would be able to enlighten us, so we can share informed opinions rather than uninformed opinions.

Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

#170

Post by Tarsul »

edgyquant wrote: post #160
idle_zealot wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not an either-or question; they're very transparently both nefarious and incompetent.

So what does that say about their opposition who lost all three branches of government to them?

Not nefarious enough?
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