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What young workers are doing to AI-proof themselves

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Re: What young workers are doing to AI-proof themselves

#161

Post by throwaway290 »

tjwebbnorfolk wrote: post #40
margorczynski wrote: post #33

The "go into trades" thing has two major flaws: 1) The supply of work will skyrocket when everyone will flock there for work 2) Demand will plummet as the white collar people who bought these services will loose their jobs and income And of course if robotics will get solved to an acceptable degree most of those jobs will also get mostly automated.

Pipes don't care about how much you would like to spend on it. They will leak when they are ready to leak.

and if they leak when you don't have the money to fix it, you just live for as long as possible with leaky pipes, then try to fix it yourself and MAYBE you shop for cheapest plumber possible. end result, plumber earns less because you are broke

Re: What young workers are doing to AI-proof themselves

#162

Post by throwaway290 »

galaxyLogic wrote: post #125

So a lot of people might lose their jobs because of AI, right? But the same amount of economic output, probably more, will be produced because of AI. By whom will that output then be consumed? If people don't have jobs they don't have money to buy and therefore ... prices will have to come down! Society as a whole will be better off because there is more output, better quality output. Then it's for us to vote in a go…

> But the same amount of economic output, probably more, will be produced because of AI

> Society as a whole will be better off because there is more output

> better quality output

citation needed

> By whom will that output then be consumed?

So there's this thing called "waste"...

> If people don't have jobs they don't have money to buy and therefore ... prices will have to come down!

Yeah, and falling prices and unemployment are sure signs of boom and prosperity...

> government that shares the fruits of AI with everybody, by way of progressive taxation. Government, use the taxes you collect to give us free food

and you think though that never happened is now possible because?

Re: What young workers are doing to AI-proof themselves

#163

Post by laughing_man »

galaxyLogic wrote: post #125

So a lot of people might lose their jobs because of AI, right? But the same amount of economic output, probably more, will be produced because of AI. By whom will that output then be consumed? If people don't have jobs they don't have money to buy and therefore ... prices will have to come down! Society as a whole will be better off because there is more output, better quality output. Then it's for us to vote in a go…

We may very well end up with similar prices, a few stupendously wealthy people, and the rest of us living on the dole.

Re: What young workers are doing to AI-proof themselves

#164

Post by laughing_man »

Moto7451 wrote: post #141
galaxyLogic wrote: post #125

So a lot of people might lose their jobs because of AI, right? But the same amount of economic output, probably more, will be produced because of AI. By whom will that output then be consumed? If people don't have jobs they don't have money to buy and therefore ... prices will have to come down! Society as a whole will be better off because there is more output, better quality output. Then it's for us to vote in a go…

Yes-Anding you, if one developer is suddenly 3x more productive and does 40 hours of work in 15 with AI tools, any reasonable manager would still want the same three people to keep working at 3x productivity. I don’t see Keynes’ theory we would all be working drastically fewer hours per week suddenly materializing due to AI. As always we’re just going to try to output more in the same time. The fact I, a manager, can…

You need paying customers for whatever those developers are producing. If your market size is relatively fixed, you don't need three people anymore.

Look at it this way: if there really was a 3x market potential, why wouldn't that manager have hired six more people already?

Re: What young workers are doing to AI-proof themselves

#165

Post by terminalshort »

bryanrasmussen wrote: post #123
terminalshort wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To use your example of someone working on the plumbing of an accounts payable system, who is passionate about that? The supply is near zero. That, like most jobs, is going to need to be done entirely by people who are just doing it for the money, and there is nothing wrong with that. Your example runs counter to the laws of supply and demand too. You understand that wages will rise when supply is restricted, but you…

> That, like most jobs, is going to need to be done entirely by people who are just doing it for the money why then do they all have those interview rounds where you have to talk about what really attracted you to work at this boring company and how you would love to do that kind of work? They evidently haven't gotten the memo.

[flagged]

Re: What young workers are doing to AI-proof themselves

#166

Post by intended »

galaxyLogic wrote: post #125

So a lot of people might lose their jobs because of AI, right? But the same amount of economic output, probably more, will be produced because of AI. By whom will that output then be consumed? If people don't have jobs they don't have money to buy and therefore ... prices will have to come down! Society as a whole will be better off because there is more output, better quality output. Then it's for us to vote in a go…

Eh, the line of better quality output is suspect.

I’ve been looking at AI productivity gains, and the idea that it’s better quality output is the weakest claim that can be made.

There ARE more software project starts, yes. This also means it’s a more crowded field to be noticed in.

Also productivity gains are HIGHLY variable. I see some people being 2x more effective, most people publicly willing to claim 30% efficiency gains, and a more likely 15% gain for most people.

At the same time, I hear of cases in content and media where it’s essentially a wipeout. I know of a story where a firm went to an advertisement agency with an AI generated video they wanted, and only wanted the animations cleaned up.

When they got the quote for the costs to have it done professionally, they decided to just go with the AI generated video.

Fraud is another area which is seeing a boom. The degree of information pollution we are seeing has also seen a step change.

This matters because all the rosy eyed theories of productivity gains from AI do not account for changes to our shared information commons.

The business cases that come to mind are Fast Fashion, and Coke vs Pepsi, and Tobacco.

Re: What young workers are doing to AI-proof themselves

#168

Post by baxtr »

laughing_man wrote: post #163
galaxyLogic wrote: post #125

So a lot of people might lose their jobs because of AI, right? But the same amount of economic output, probably more, will be produced because of AI. By whom will that output then be consumed? If people don't have jobs they don't have money to buy and therefore ... prices will have to come down! Society as a whole will be better off because there is more output, better quality output. Then it's for us to vote in a go…

We may very well end up with similar prices, a few stupendously wealthy people, and the rest of us living on the dole.

I wouldn’t say it’s impossible but I’d argue from all we know now highly unlikely.

Why? Assume a company has a high margin because they used AI and reduced their workforce by 10x. What usually happens is that a new competitor comes in and offers the same for half the price.

Since AI is lowering the bar for entry this process should be even faster than previously.

Re: What young workers are doing to AI-proof themselves

#169

Post by returnInfinity »

throwuxiytayq wrote: post #147
SequoiaHope wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree completely, but you forget that another option is that the powerful will use these tools to make us suffer and we will be powerless to stop them.

Well, we could vote. In some parts of the world, at least.

And look at what that led to. Democracy is not a panacea.

Re: What young workers are doing to AI-proof themselves

#170

Post by returnInfinity »

Moto7451 wrote: post #141
galaxyLogic wrote: post #125

So a lot of people might lose their jobs because of AI, right? But the same amount of economic output, probably more, will be produced because of AI. By whom will that output then be consumed? If people don't have jobs they don't have money to buy and therefore ... prices will have to come down! Society as a whole will be better off because there is more output, better quality output. Then it's for us to vote in a go…

Yes-Anding you, if one developer is suddenly 3x more productive and does 40 hours of work in 15 with AI tools, any reasonable manager would still want the same three people to keep working at 3x productivity. I don’t see Keynes’ theory we would all be working drastically fewer hours per week suddenly materializing due to AI. As always we’re just going to try to output more in the same time. The fact I, a manager, can…

Lets take the example of Uber. If Uber ships 10x the code and features, I will still not 2x my rides.

Even if Uber makes the cost of travel to 0, I will still not 2x my rides.

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