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What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

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Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#161

Post by JumpCrisscross »

mark_l_watson wrote: post #25

The phrase "when US data becomes unreliable" is misleading in one sense: for many years political manipulation of economic data has screwed things up. Calculation of unemployment and real debt has seldom matched the norms of most other western countries. Add military (often black budgets) spending without much oversight or accurate accounting. The wealthiest people in the USA are now in the mode of grabbing what they…

> for many years political manipulation of economic data has screwed things up

This is a myth. But a self-fulfilling one, given we’re cutting budgets to those agencies because so many Americans believe it.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#162

Post by tw-20260303-001 »

kittikitti wrote: post #77

People in Florida, when I tell them about my background working with data, often scoff and claim that the data can be changed to spread lies. They have a government who arrested a data scientist when she published information about Coronavirus. This is prevalent across all of America, especially after DOGE, who encourage fraud so the data supports their political interests. I think the reliability problem is very bad…

“Never trust any data you haven’t manipulated yourself”.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#163

Post by JumpCrisscross »

culi wrote: post #62
mark_l_watson wrote: post #25

The phrase "when US data becomes unreliable" is misleading in one sense: for many years political manipulation of economic data has screwed things up. Calculation of unemployment and real debt has seldom matched the norms of most other western countries. Add military (often black budgets) spending without much oversight or accurate accounting. The wealthiest people in the USA are now in the mode of grabbing what they…

I agree. The super rich have been in "prepper" mode for a long time now https://www.theguardian.com/news/2022/sep/04/super-rich-prep... > They started out innocuously and predictably enough. Bitcoin or ethereum? Virtual reality or augmented reality? Who will get quantum computing first, China or Google? Eventually, they edged into their real topic of concern: New Zealand or Alaska? Which region would be less affected…

> super rich have been in "prepper" mode for a long time now

For every prepper in the $100+ million class, I know a hundred who are not. They’re enjoying their lives or working to make more money.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#164

Post by nine_k »

hackyhacky wrote: post #125
quacked wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The frustrating thing about the empire collapse is that it doesn't need to happen. There are still tons of highly energized and ostensibly disciplined and competitive people here. It's just that the production base was sold off to foreign lands and the aesthetic and moral project of "America" was effectively discontinued, for reasons unclear.

> It's just that the production base was sold off to foreign lands It wasn't. You are conflating "production" with "manufacturing." They're not the same. The US, for better or worse, produces a lot of value. > moral project of "America" was effectively discontinued I'm not sure America was ever a "moral project," considering the many many dark parts of its history. Nevertheless, at the moment moment, it seems to be o…

The land of the free, and all that. America was a radical moral project when it was founded, as a republic (when monarchies dominated the world) with enshrined religious freedom (when state-enforced religions were the norm). The Civil War arguably had a large moral dimension, too.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#165

Post by tootie »

The article says: US Government surveys are suffering from poor response rates and decreasing budgets so business leaders will have to explore other options to improve reliability.

This thread says: American Empire is dying and the world is a fraud.

Are all of you bots? Is apocalyptic cynicism this widespread? Fact is that most of the world already gets by with a fraction of the economic data we produce. We have enjoyed an incredibly high standard for breadth, depth and quality of data and it's now proving unsustainable. Political manipulation thus far remains a specter to be wary of, but there's no indication any headline numbers are inaccurate. The downstream affects on policy are equally off in the distance maybe never to appear.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#166

Post by tomrod »

xanthor wrote: post #118
tomrod wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1900 to 2024 for the US. For Iran, China, USSR, for example, you had to back in estimates from observable benchmark information uncontaminated by dictatorships. You didn't have to do that with the US. The US standard has been to document and standardize approaches -- and identify when things are changed and why. This was not common across all economies. It does give us several similar streams, e.g several versions of…

Can you address any of the points the commenter made instead of retreating into an ideological non sequitur?

My comment was made prior to the parent's edit.Further, familiarity with the subject does not make an informed comment a non-sequitur. Happy reading.

[0] https://sites.pitt.edu/~tgrawski/papers/2001%20What%27s%20Ha...

[1] https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w29349/w293...

[2] https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/epr/2...

[3] https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/245398/1/cesifo1_wp9...

[4] https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/350051528721174623-0050...

[5] https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/cesifo1_wp10630.pdf

[6] https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5140733

[7] https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/13/22/4620

[8] https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2022/06/03/mea...

[9] https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/cesifo1_wp10630.pdf

[10] https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w23323/w233...

[11] https://www.jstor.org/stable/26372649

[12] https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w15199/w151...

[13] https://www.economic-policy.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/S...

[14] https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1273505

[15] https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/epr/2...

[16] https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S10439...

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#167

Post by jmull »

mark_l_watson wrote: post #25

The phrase "when US data becomes unreliable" is misleading in one sense: for many years political manipulation of economic data has screwed things up. Calculation of unemployment and real debt has seldom matched the norms of most other western countries. Add military (often black budgets) spending without much oversight or accurate accounting. The wealthiest people in the USA are now in the mode of grabbing what they…

"for many years political manipulation of economic data has screwed things up"

That's quite a claim. A "whopper" one might say.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#168

Post by JumpCrisscross »

input_sh wrote: post #106
quacked wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The frustrating thing about the empire collapse is that it doesn't need to happen. There are still tons of highly energized and ostensibly disciplined and competitive people here. It's just that the production base was sold off to foreign lands and the aesthetic and moral project of "America" was effectively discontinued, for reasons unclear.

I would argue the empire already collapsed, about a year ago when DOGE was tasked with killing every form of soft power that were put in place to present the country in the best possible light across the world. Even with tons of talented and well-intentioned people and everyone fully aligned to re-build everything broken, it'd take decades to rebuild that trust that was lost in a matter of weeks.

> would argue the empire already collapsed

The republic may be collapsing. The empire comes after. The rich benefit if we transition to an autocratic empire based on American military might.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#169

Post by iugtmkbdfil834 »

enraged_camel wrote: post #141
iugtmkbdfil834 wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can't tell if you are serious or not. Lets assume for a moment that there was once a benefit to BLS survey methodology ( I would argue otherwise, but w/e ). Is it a good methodology today? So my main argument ( and frankly the only argument that should matter ) is that is a bad fit for the goal of estimating values ( even though we do know its failure modes ). Is that not enough?

You made the argument and provided zero supporting evidence. As it stands, it's merely an opinion, and appears to be an uninformed one until you prove otherwise. That's what people are asking you to do.

Sigh, your supporting evidence is a record of someone saying something, which itself is merely an opinion.. men in glass houses and all that. The interesting thing about my opinion is that while it may not be AS informed as yours, it is notably above the average level of knowledge when it comes to BLS.

No. What I am being asked to do is: "Show me a better way, but I only accept a better way that is already utilized by someone else". Not a recipe for a thoughtful exchange of ideas.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#170

Post by actionablefiber »

iugtmkbdfil834 wrote: post #96
culi wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree. The super rich have been in "prepper" mode for a long time now https://www.theguardian.com/news/2022/sep/04/super-rich-prep... > They started out innocuously and predictably enough. Bitcoin or ethereum? Virtual reality or augmented reality? Who will get quantum computing first, China or Google? Eventually, they edged into their real topic of concern: New Zealand or Alaska? Which region would be less affected…

As a statist, I personally always found it as a fascinating way to look at the future. They are actively preparing for a collapse they themselves are ushering.

It's increasingly a pet theory of mine that the uncontrolled concentration of wealth into the hands of the richest, their subsequent existential ennui, and their disconnect from reality owing to media consolidation and algorithmic content feeds have basically created a world where the superrich are in a "post-game" mentality. There are no further material comforts to obtain. They just want to feel anything at all and the only way to do that is by bringing about the end of the world.
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