161–170 of 249 posts
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That’s okay by me. I’m ready to buy one or two on the cheap
By mean lifetime I mean “failure”. They won’t be any good
While this article is old, there’s more and more noise that the lay offs is this month. That being said, I can’t help but wonder if the paramount deal accelerated these plans.
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You need to explain, from a systems point of view _why_ the gains must diffuse out as you suggest. We have analogs we can compare to: massive wealth injections through a natural resource such as oil. Now what happens to that wealth is not obvious; for some countries it's a curse with radical inequality and pernicious and robust power structures, in fewer it has been bestowed to the heritage of the people (think Norwa…
> You need to explain, from a systems point of view _why_ the gains must diffuse out as you suggest. Do we? I mean, isn't "because they always have" enough of an argument on its own? I am hardly a libertarian ideologue nor AI-first LLM jockey. But I do think people tend to catastrophize too much. Blacksmiths were killed dead by the industrial revolution. "Secretary" is a forgotten art. It's been decades since an actu…
What forces act on this trend? How can we make predictions? An interesting metric, which tracks the aggregate of many complex factors is the distribution of wealth, which could be seen as proxy for the distribution of power or agency of a person in their society. Median income as a fraction of total wealth decreased nearly 50% in real terms over this same period. [3]
Now inversely, during the period where life quality increased most the last century (1920 - 1980) inequality was _falling_.
How is super-human AI advanced through 2030, 2040, 2050 likely to affect things? Will it sharpen the inequality or relax it?
With AI the cost of raw resources to products goes down, but it's likely inequality increases. It's not obvious which force has a bigger impact on human quality of life as things shake out. However, I think the strongest argument – which also explains the steady improvements in QoL through previous changes you mentioned – has been to follow inequality, or median share of power in society.
- [0] https://www.numbeo.com/quality-of-life/indices_explained.jsp
- [1] https://www.socialprogress.org/social-progress-index
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By mean lifetime I mean “failure”. They won’t be any good
They don’t fail after 3 years, just a poor use of electricity once the next generation of silicon hits. It’s not economical to keep the old hardware running when it’s taking up rack space.
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Yes - if AGI is made, nearly immediately every knowledge worker’s labor value goes to zero over night. This may or may not include AI researchers.
Can you guys just say the quiet part out loud? That you want slaves. You want slaves. This is what you are asking for. Unless you're paying the AGI? Then why not just... pay a human that is already present? Much more efficient.
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Yes - if AGI is made, nearly immediately every knowledge worker’s labor value goes to zero over night. This may or may not include AI researchers.
You are assuming that the AGI service is very cheap..
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> I don't know what comes after, but when you combine this with the Iran war it's going to be closer to economic depression. I follow your extrapolation in the first part, but this is where you lost me. Why is the Iran war guaranteed to have long-term net negative consequences? It seems far too early to predict the outcome with any kind of certainty.
About 20% of the world's oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, which is effectively closed right now. So far, the economy is coping by drawing down inventories elsewhere and praying that the strait reopens soon , but even then, crude oil futures are skyrocketing (up 50% in a week). If this lasts for a few months--and if a few oil tankers get blown up in the crossfire--this is going to be a repeat of the 1970's oil…
If you think food is expensive now, wait until fall!
Unrelated, Grapes of Wraith is a good read if you're looking for something to distract yourself with.
The economy is going to go into a deep recession for years with the current economic environment. There will be nobody left to spend money, just increasing corporate and ultra high wealth spend. The rest will be left with food and water. We are destroying currently valuable jobs to allocate resources to electricity and silicon, concentrating wealth into 10 companies pockets. I don't know what comes after, but when yo…
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Your response is over the top. Oracle isn't going to fire 30,000 employees to fund anything. That's the story for Wall Street. Oracle went on a huge run in the market, that it did not deserve, and they're going to attempt to hold on to as much of that gain as they can. Wall Street will applaud slashing jobs if you can give them a good reason for it (and sometimes with no reason at all). Amazon, Meta, Apple, Nvidia, M…
Who cares about US vs. China. We're talking about jobs here and economy.