War prediction markets are a national-security threat

Post by thephyber » Mon, Mar 09, 2026, 2:04 PM UTC

pstuart wrote: post #53

Dig1t wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No idea why you're being downvoted, there is a mountain of evidence that this is the case. We are doing this because of Israel. Marco Rubio said outright we went in because of Israel. Just watch Trump's speeches, he literally talks about the power of the Israel lobby and hopes he is doing a good job for them. Netanyahu has visited Trump 7 times in the last year, each visit has been leading up to this move. Trump's bi…

I'm assuming that it's assumed that I'm slagging on Israel for some irrational hate -- I'm not. I'm commenting based upon reports that I've seen (effectively what you're referred to), not on ideology or feellings. Thanks for having my back! I think of HN as a community of intelligent people and it's always disappointing to be reminded that that alone is no guarantee of healthy discourse.

Looking back at this, I’m confused why my comment was a reply to yours. I suspect I used the reply link on the wrong comment.

Post by VirusNewbie » Mon, Mar 09, 2026, 4:57 PM UTC

Paradigma11 wrote: post #149

abustamam wrote: post #78

For whatever it's worth, Kalshi refused to pay out on the bet because Khomenei died, and they refuse to allow people to profit off of death so they returned everyone's bets. https://xcancel.com/mansourtarek_/status/2029996077554815268 While I think this policy removes one avenue of incentivizing death of real people (many bets involving real people can probably be resolved by some sort of assassination attempt), I ho…

On the other hand this possibly forces people to put their mouth where their money is. It would be great to be able to hold all those politicians and pundits at least financially accountable. Oh,so you say that this spending is not going to be a problem because the economy will grow twice that much. Sooo, how much did you bet on that? And how did your bets go last year.

Definitely interesting idea given how lockstep parties operate. Ostensibly representatives should be uh, representing local interests, over party, but we've seen this isn't the case.

So if one side is claiming something, yes, would absolutely love to see how much of their net worth is tied into betting that something would come to fruition (like lowering inflation, or medical care, or increasing jobs, etc)

Re: War prediction markets are a national-security threat

Re: War prediction markets are a national-security threat