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Uncovering insiders and alpha on Polymarket with AI

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Re: Uncovering insiders and alpha on Polymarket with AI

#161

Post by yunohn »

FergusArgyll wrote: post #108
yunohn wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> there is large value for some people in knowing when a country will be invaded Are there any examples of people/companies trusting degenerate gamblers on prediction markets and making real life-changing decisions? All the examples I’ve seen are exactly what I started in my original post - the insider circle opening a massive position on the right invasion date mere minutes/hours before they actually do it. This is…

> Are there any examples of people/companies trusting degenerate gamblers on prediction markets and making real life-changing decisions? If "real life-changing decisions" includes deciding to take a flight based on polymarket placing a low price on war breaking out, then yes. I'd also challenge you to outperform "Degenerate gamblers"

> then yes.

I missed a link to any source for this claim?

> I'd also challenge you to outperform

I wasn't making a competition out of this - rather I'm questioning the fundamental basis of this.

Re: Uncovering insiders and alpha on Polymarket with AI

#162

Post by ttul »

ttul wrote: post #91

Trading on non-public information in prediction markets is illegal (in the United States) if the information was obtained through fraud, deception, a breach of trust—such as compromising a position of privilege—or from a confidential government source. For example, if you work at Google and know that Gemini 3 will be released on a certain date, trading on that insight is illegal because you are legally misappropriati…

Yeah this is totally wrong. Taalas says their design is fully digital.

Re: Uncovering insiders and alpha on Polymarket with AI

#163

Post by FergusArgyll »

yunohn wrote: post #161
FergusArgyll wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Are there any examples of people/companies trusting degenerate gamblers on prediction markets and making real life-changing decisions? If "real life-changing decisions" includes deciding to take a flight based on polymarket placing a low price on war breaking out, then yes. I'd also challenge you to outperform "Degenerate gamblers"

> then yes. I missed a link to any source for this claim? > I'd also challenge you to outperform I wasn't making a competition out of this - rather I'm questioning the fundamental basis of this.

I don't have links. I'm a yeshiva student and many of my friends study in Israel and/or fly back and forth and I know multiple people who used polymarket to make flying decisions.

> questioning the fundamental basis of this.

Empirically, you can look at https://calibration.city/ (among other such trackers) look at polymarket, filter by market midpoint and you'll see that if a market resolves in a year, and 6 months in it's at 30%, the actual event happens at (remarkably close) to 30% of the time.

Theoretically, it relies on standard market theories, like efficient markets hypothesis etc. Basically, however corn comes ot be valued correctly, much of the same mechanisms are present here

Re: Uncovering insiders and alpha on Polymarket with AI

#164

Post by yunohn »

FergusArgyll wrote: post #163
yunohn wrote: post #161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> then yes. I missed a link to any source for this claim? > I'd also challenge you to outperform I wasn't making a competition out of this - rather I'm questioning the fundamental basis of this.

I don't have links. I'm a yeshiva student and many of my friends study in Israel and/or fly back and forth and I know multiple people who used polymarket to make flying decisions. > questioning the fundamental basis of this. Empirically, you can look at https://calibration.city/ (among other such trackers) look at polymarket, filter by market midpoint and you'll see that if a market resolves in a year, and 6 months i…

> yeshiva

Doesn’t Orthodox Judaism (like all religions) look quite harshly upon all forms of gambling? How is Polymarket kosher?

To be clear, I didn’t question efficient market hypotheses - my stance has been pretty clear along the thread, questioning the value of the kind of information gambled upon in popular prediction markets.

Re: Uncovering insiders and alpha on Polymarket with AI

#165

Post by FergusArgyll »

yunohn wrote: post #164
FergusArgyll wrote: post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't have links. I'm a yeshiva student and many of my friends study in Israel and/or fly back and forth and I know multiple people who used polymarket to make flying decisions. > questioning the fundamental basis of this. Empirically, you can look at https://calibration.city/ (among other such trackers) look at polymarket, filter by market midpoint and you'll see that if a market resolves in a year, and 6 months i…

> yeshiva Doesn’t Orthodox Judaism (like all religions) look quite harshly upon all forms of gambling? How is Polymarket kosher? To be clear, I didn’t question efficient market hypotheses - my stance has been pretty clear along the thread, questioning the value of the kind of information gambled upon in popular prediction markets.

Yes, it does. I never gambled on Polymarket, I look at it to figure out the odds of things I care about.

I thought I explained the value quite clearly. ~10 years ago if you wanted to know the odds your flight will get canceled due to war, you had to trust the hyperventilating talking head on your favorite cable news channel (who's job it was to keep you watching...). Now you get basically the actual odds. If that's not value, I don't know what is.

Re: Uncovering insiders and alpha on Polymarket with AI

#166

Post by Veedrac »

alphazard wrote: post #112
w10-1 wrote: post #26

Speculation and concern from a naive observer: Is it polymarket presenting this ability to detect insiders? Or is someone trying to sell the service of detecting insiders to those wanting to know if bets are on equal footing? (or wanting to follow insiders? or wanting to hide your identity by making multiple accounts? Are there per-account fees, when polymarket might encourage people to make multiple accounts?) Regar…

> Regardless, polymarket seems to be on balance corrupting, by monetizing and normalizing use of inside information, This is a common take on "inside information", but for most people this opinion is totally unaligned with their own goals. The people who benefit from "no insider trading" in any market, are a small group of active traders, some institutional, some not. For literally everyone else, insider trading is a…

This is missing the primary reasons insider trading is bad, which are that it's an information theft incentive against employers, and worse, that it's a sabotage incentive.

Re: Uncovering insiders and alpha on Polymarket with AI

#167

Post by SamPatt »

nubg wrote: post #105
SamPatt wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can see when they buy or sell a position. It's on the blockchain so it's all public. And yes, copying positions is called copy-trading and it's extremely popular. Orders aren't public though. Only the actual trades. This is important because by the time the trade is known by others very often the edge is gone. Especially if you have other people watching the same trader and they all try to copy the trade at the s…

Could the "trend-setter" not just buy, sell, buy, sell and own everybody who moves after him?

Yes. This is why copy-trading often fails.

Re: Uncovering insiders and alpha on Polymarket with AI

#168

Post by yunohn »

FergusArgyll wrote: post #165
yunohn wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> yeshiva Doesn’t Orthodox Judaism (like all religions) look quite harshly upon all forms of gambling? How is Polymarket kosher? To be clear, I didn’t question efficient market hypotheses - my stance has been pretty clear along the thread, questioning the value of the kind of information gambled upon in popular prediction markets.

Yes, it does. I never gambled on Polymarket, I look at it to figure out the odds of things I care about. I thought I explained the value quite clearly. ~10 years ago if you wanted to know the odds your flight will get canceled due to war, you had to trust the hyperventilating talking head on your favorite cable news channel (who's job it was to keep you watching...). Now you get basically the actual odds. If that's n…

> Yes, it does.

I find the way you operate - supporting and benefitting from Polymarket - to be equally disdainful from the same moralistic standpoint that gambling is banned from, but I guess even in orthodoxy one can bend the rules to their liking.

> Now you get basically the actual odds.

But that's the thing - insiders bet & trade at the very last minute, and thus are not supporting the /just cause/ of "information sharing", rather just plain, old front-running and racketeering. The odds you see when booking your flight are not the real odds - when the actual action happens just before event takes place.

https://ritchietorres.house.gov/posts/in-response-to-suspici...

Re: Uncovering insiders and alpha on Polymarket with AI

#169

Post by FergusArgyll »

yunohn wrote: post #168
FergusArgyll wrote: post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, it does. I never gambled on Polymarket, I look at it to figure out the odds of things I care about. I thought I explained the value quite clearly. ~10 years ago if you wanted to know the odds your flight will get canceled due to war, you had to trust the hyperventilating talking head on your favorite cable news channel (who's job it was to keep you watching...). Now you get basically the actual odds. If that's n…

> Yes, it does. I find the way you operate - supporting and benefitting from Polymarket - to be equally disdainful from the same moralistic standpoint that gambling is banned from, but I guess even in orthodoxy one can bend the rules to their liking. > Now you get basically the actual odds. But that's the thing - insiders bet & trade at the very last minute, and thus are not supporting the /just cause/ of "informatio…

> equally disdainful from the same moralistic standpoint that gambling is banned from

I don't know which religion/s you're familiar with but I bet you don't know the reason gambling is prohibited in Judaism. It doesn't carry the moral stench you think it does. I've been studying Talmudic law for a very very long time and am confident there is no issue with using polymarket to get the odds on anything.

> The odds you see when booking your flight are not the real odds

In my previous comment I shared a link with you (https://calibration.city/) I told you to filter by market midpoint.

I don't know if you didn't see it or you are being obtuse but between repeating something I disproved and lecturing me about my religion, I have my suspicions...

Re: Uncovering insiders and alpha on Polymarket with AI

#170

Post by testaccount28 »

skybrian wrote: post #99
testaccount28 wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

but like, here in the real world, farmers use weather derivatives. so the technology works, has a use case, is proven. if your point is that one should not treat the market's number as some oracular probability, then... of course i agree! there is no such thing. the market provides a signal, like any other.

Not a farmer, but I believe they use weather derivatives to hedge and weather forecasts for predictions? Going through markets for weather forecasts is adding a level of indirection that generates a noisier signal. The idea when hedging isn't to win on expected value. It's to reduce risk. You're paying the market to provide insurance. As a side effect, insurance does sometimes generate interesting data. The insurance…

just to be clear about what you're saying, you would predict that the implied probabilities from weather derivative prices are often very different than what is forecasted, and, when those differences occur, it is the forecast that is more likely to be right?

...would you like to make a bet to this effect?

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