Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

US businesses and consumers pay 90% of tariff costs, New York Fed says

ft.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

161–170 of 339 posts

Re: US businesses and consumers pay 90% of tariff costs, New York Fed says

#161

Post by neilwilson »

hackyhacky wrote: post #144
phkahler wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No. The point is to make foreign goods more expensive in order to bring production back to the US. People who don't realize this point out who is actually paying and claim its a problem. Will this bring manufacturing back? It seems to be working to some extent, but its a risk to manufacturers because the whole thing could get reversed after an election.

Manufacturing jobs are down. [1] [1] https://www.koco.com/article/manufacturing-jobs-us-tariffs/7...

That doesn’t mean manufacturing is down, if new output is automated.

The trade deficit is shrinking, and which necessarily means there is more domestic flow as foreign hoards of dollars are liquidated. That flow has to go somewhere.

Could be straight to the tax cuts of course.

Re: US businesses and consumers pay 90% of tariff costs, New York Fed says

#162

Post by vjvjvjvjghv »

fc417fc802 wrote: post #14
brodouevencode wrote: post #4

The public needs to understand that tariffs aren't meant to punish other countries (which is what is being sold) - they are meant to change domestic behavior.

Sure, they work via changing domestic behavior. But the purpose of that change is what's important. They can be used to gently (as compared to sanctions) shift demand away from a particular country, or alternatively to apply pressure to a sector to bring it on shore.

"Sure, they work via changing domestic behavior. But the purpose of that change is what's important. They can be used to gently (as compared to sanctions) shift demand away from a particular country, or alternatively to apply pressure to a sector to bring it on shore"

I have talked to some purchasing people at my company and it seems it's going exactly the other way. The company is moving as much production as possible away from the US to serve the international market without paying for tariffs.

Re: US businesses and consumers pay 90% of tariff costs, New York Fed says

#163

Post by Symbiote »

dalyons wrote: post #150
FuriouslyAdrift wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I work at a manufacturing supplier (packaging and logistics) and our business has been on fire since the trade war kicked off. Pre-COVID we were at ~$25MM yearly and now we are $150MM+ and growing steadily. We just bought a million sq ft building (that was an old RCA plant) and millions in new machinery to keep up. We are only a regional player, too.

It’s not entirely clear to me why tariffs would help your local logistics businesses? Doesn’t the same amount of stuff get moved around , just changes origin? I believe you I just would like to understand

I was shocked when I last visited the USA (from Europe) and saw things like Walmart paper bags labelled "Made in Germany".

Perhaps some of that has been replaced by "Made in USA".

(Day-to-day, I generally don't buy things not made in the EU — packaging, for example, will typically be from Sweden, France or Poland.)

Re: US businesses and consumers pay 90% of tariff costs, New York Fed says

#164

Post by g947o »

thijson wrote: post #10
jqpabc123 wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They are meant to tax lower income people who spend a large percentage of their income on necessities. In other words, they are a regressive tax --- pure and simple.

They are a little bit like a sales tax, except only for things not made in this country.

Like, at least 50% of the things you use every day, from phone and laptops to kitchen utensils.

Re: US businesses and consumers pay 90% of tariff costs, New York Fed says

#165

Post by throw0101a »

phkahler wrote: post #112
SunshineTheCat wrote: post #13

Everyone has been getting sold that these tariffs are on "China" or fill-in-the-blank on what country we're "getting" with them. The reality is that's a fundamental misunderstanding of what a tariff is. There is a reason you will find tariffs drop off after the great depression. They make everything more expensive for businesses and in turn, the end consumer. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_tariffs_in_the_Un…

No. The point is to make foreign goods more expensive in order to bring production back to the US. People who don't realize this point out who is actually paying and claim its a problem. Will this bring manufacturing back? It seems to be working to some extent, but its a risk to manufacturers because the whole thing could get reversed after an election.

> No. The point is to make foreign goods more expensive in order to bring production back to the US.

Nikon (for one) had to raise US prices on their digital cameras to handle tariffs:

* https://www.dpreview.com/news/7688376775/tariff-watch-nikon-...

Is the US administration hoping to increase (digital) camera production in the US? Camera lenses? Is there a moribund American camera industry that could thrive if given a chance?

During Trump 1.0 he raised tariffs on steel and got 1k job in steel manufacturing… but lost 75k jobs in manufacturing that used steel as an input:

* https://www.investopedia.com/metal-tariffs-cost-at-least-75-...

> It seems to be working to some extent […]

US manufacturing job numbers are down:

* https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-factory-headcount-fallin...

* https://www.wsj.com/economy/u-s-manufacturing-is-in-retreat-...

Re: US businesses and consumers pay 90% of tariff costs, New York Fed says

#166

Post by philipallstar »

TheJoeMan wrote: post #139
taeric wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is baffling to me, as it is no different than thinking that "sugar taxes" are taxes that soda companies pay. There is even a straight forward analysis that shows it does impact the soda companies rather heavily. But it is objectively paid by the consumers. And nobody is really confused by that.

If rent or business taxes go up, the business may either eat the cost or eventually raise the main price, they don’t tack a “rent offset fee” on the final bill. But with tariffs, up to a point the business dgaf because they just pass it through as a separate “junk fee” line item.

Yeah, it's like VAT or state taxes.

Re: US businesses and consumers pay 90% of tariff costs, New York Fed says

#167

Post by SonOfKyuss »

phkahler wrote: post #112
SunshineTheCat wrote: post #13

Everyone has been getting sold that these tariffs are on "China" or fill-in-the-blank on what country we're "getting" with them. The reality is that's a fundamental misunderstanding of what a tariff is. There is a reason you will find tariffs drop off after the great depression. They make everything more expensive for businesses and in turn, the end consumer. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_tariffs_in_the_Un…

No. The point is to make foreign goods more expensive in order to bring production back to the US. People who don't realize this point out who is actually paying and claim its a problem. Will this bring manufacturing back? It seems to be working to some extent, but its a risk to manufacturers because the whole thing could get reversed after an election.

I think the issue is that the people implementing the tariffs continue to deny what you’re saying so people feel the need to point it out.

Re: US businesses and consumers pay 90% of tariff costs, New York Fed says

#168

Post by culi »

ewjt wrote: post #109
culi wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What if, instead of all of us paying in order to have a car industry, we take that tax money and pay to an ecological restoration industry or functioning healthcare industry or whatever. Have you seen the map of superfund sites? Statistically speaking, you are almost certainly living within 10 miles of a superfund https://epa.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=... There is a LOT of other work we could be…

Transportation is like farming and yielding ownership of critical industries gives foreign adversaries too much leverage. I’m with you though. If humans could just get along we could build an amazing world.

Japan, India, Germany, Mexico, etc all have massive auto manufacturing industries. If we're at war with all of those countries at the same time then maybe we deserve what's coming

China only became an auto industry power house in the 00s.

Re: US businesses and consumers pay 90% of tariff costs, New York Fed says

#169

Post by ToucanLoucan »

alistairSH wrote: post #97
taeric wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is baffling to me, as it is no different than thinking that "sugar taxes" are taxes that soda companies pay. There is even a straight forward analysis that shows it does impact the soda companies rather heavily. But it is objectively paid by the consumers. And nobody is really confused by that.

And nobody is really confused by that. Yet that's not what the administration says about the subject. They're either confused or they're lying (and the people who support them and regurgitate their talking points are confused).

I don't think they're confused or lying. I think they're ideologically driven buffoons, the preferred recruits of all fascist administrations. They don't care about American manufacturing, and they don't understand economics. They want to advance their agenda.

Like, even the propaganda by fascists claiming fascism makes for good policies is bad. Germany under the Reich, completely setting aside the human atrocities, was a fucking SHIT SHOW of a nation state.

Re: US businesses and consumers pay 90% of tariff costs, New York Fed says

#170

Post by temp8830 »

stevenjgarner wrote: post #85
CamperBob2 wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, the tariffs are just a grift designed to force CEOs to pay tribute to Trump. If the tariffs were "an attempt to get domestic US industries to produce items now being imported," they wouldn't be levied on manufacturing inputs .

I agree the administration tariffs "wouldn't be levied on manufacturing inputs" if they really wanted to help domestic industries. I'm not saying they're doing the right thing, I'm just saying that most Americans I talk to understand the INTENTION is ancient protectionist logic, but the Fed report is evidence that this logic is currently failing to produce the administration's intended "manufacturing miracle". It is…

Manufacturing miracles aren't instant: it takes a lot less effort to import something than to invest into manufacturing. The inconsistencies mirror this perfectly: the industries where startup costs are lowest see the boost.
Post reply on HN