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TSMC to make advanced AI semiconductors in Japan

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Re: TSMC to make advanced AI semiconductors in Japan

#161

Post by mamonster »

jorvi wrote: post #155
joe_mamba wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>High-end chips should be more of a EU concerted effort rather than every country for itself. And how are we gonna do that exactly? EU runs on national interests of those footing the bill, mainly France and Germany as the largest net contributors. When you're relying on national subsidies to build and run a factory and adjacent infrastructure in a country, you're tied to national interests and demands of those countr…

> And how are we gonna do that exactly? EU runs on national interests of those footing the bill, mainly France and Germany as the largest net contributors. The top net contributors are countries like Denmark, Sweden, The Netherlands, etc., I'm not sure where you get the idea that France and Germany are. I will say you point out another big problem with the EU: its budget is tiny compared to the member states themselv…

>The top net contributors are countries like Denmark, Sweden, The Netherlands, etc.,

Not by raw amount of euros no. By % of GDP or per capita maybe.

Re: TSMC to make advanced AI semiconductors in Japan

#162

Post by Sammi »

contrarian1234 wrote: post #51
yanhangyhy wrote: post #18

Taiwanese politicians, like those under American-style democracy in many regions, only care about safeguarding their own interests and have no concern for how to protect the interests of the public. Once TSMC’s factories are completed in Japan and the United States and the technology is secured, Taiwan will no longer have any value worth protecting. Of course, the politicians can always take planes and leave in advan…

Right now is an AI goldrush. They can get crazy lucrative investments and lock in amazing deals. In a decade the Chinese tech will catch up and the AI boom will slow down and the Taiwanese will have to coast on what they have. They have to capitalize on this moment as much as they can b/c it's not going to last long. Things are going to get much tougher very soon

You speak like the Chinese catching up with the technology is inevitable. The Chinese aren't behind in semiconductor and airplane technology for lack of trying. They are constantly trying to catch up to a moving goal post.

There is an established playbook that the Chinese have used for decades when taking over an industrial sector from other countries. They funnel vast amounts of state funding into it, sell at or below cost for decades, win the low end market, and then slowly and gradually move up the technology chain. It's worked for almost everything, but it's this last part that just isn't working for them with semiconductors and aviation. They aren't capable of catching up fast enough in these two fields. These are sectors that are both too large for any one country to do well on their own. Even for someone as large as China. It requires a global supply chain.

Re: TSMC to make advanced AI semiconductors in Japan

#163

Post by zarzavat »

petesergeant wrote: post #96
zarzavat wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

TSMC can shut the fabs down whenever they want. If the US think they can take over a fab like it's a t-shirt factory and keep it running without TSMC's cooperation they are sorely mistaken. What are you going to do when none of the Taiwanese workers turn up for work, or worse they do turn up and sabotage the fab.

If you don’t think the US security apparatus will come up with a reasonable plan for doing just that within 2 months of it opening, I don’t think you’re thinking hard enough about this. > What are you going to do when none of the Taiwanese workers turn up for work, or worse they do turn up and sabotage the fab. You’re going to offer them a lot of money, citizenship, and exfiltration of their family to turn up at work…

> You’re going to offer them a lot of money, citizenship, and exfiltration of their family to turn up at work, and threaten them with lifetime in supermax if they sabotage anything.

This is exactly the attitude I'm talking about. You can't operate a fab based on coercion. It requires positive relationships. There are simply too many people involved doing things that the would-be coercers don't understand.

The idea that an entire TSMC fab is going to commit treason en mass is about as believable as thinking that NASA faked the moon landings and covered it up en mass. Large groups of people don't behave the same way as small groups of people.

If the US wants a fab, just give Intel money to build one. Trying to steal one from TSMC is a nonsensical plan. At least Intel would know how to operate their own fab.

Re: TSMC to make advanced AI semiconductors in Japan

#164

Post by mamonster »

testdelacc1 wrote: post #75
Herring wrote: post #28

China has many faults. Invading other countries is not one of them. They haven’t dropped bombs on foreign soil in over 40 years. The Chinese playbook here is to first copy then out-scale and out-innovate until eventually nobody remembers why Taiwan was so important.

In 1962 China launched a surprise war against India. They did it in the same week as the Cuban missile crisis, ensuring that the US and USSR would be too distracted to intervene. This was after 13 years of friendship between India and China, where India had supported China in many ways including supporting the Communists getting the UN Security Council seat reserved for China. China and India had signed a friendship…

>This was a good demonstration of how China views its neighbours. As vassals to be brought to heel from time to time, rather than equals. And China will use violence to achieve these aims. That’s the Mao doctrine, followed by every Chinese leader since.

This is the Chinese way since at least Zheng He and treasure ship voyages.

Re: TSMC to make advanced AI semiconductors in Japan

#165

Post by simianparrot »

sehansen wrote: post #67
simianparrot wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you think net zero’s failures are a right wing talking point it might be you failing the Rorschach test

Bringing up net zero in a thread about semiconductor manufacturing is a complete non sequitur. Fabs run on electricity which is quite easy produce without emitting any CO2.

Only if you ignore supply chains, manufacturing, procurement of raw materials, grid balancing, and so much more.

Re: TSMC to make advanced AI semiconductors in Japan

#166

Post by testdelacc1 »

RobertoG wrote: post #92
testdelacc1 wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In 1962 China launched a surprise war against India. They did it in the same week as the Cuban missile crisis, ensuring that the US and USSR would be too distracted to intervene. This was after 13 years of friendship between India and China, where India had supported China in many ways including supporting the Communists getting the UN Security Council seat reserved for China. China and India had signed a friendship…

You make it to look like if, out of the blue, they attacked they neighbor. Not mention of what the reason of China (right or wrong) could be. Then you complain of uncritically spreading propaganda. From Wikipedia: "There had been a series of border skirmishes between the two countries after the 1959 Tibetan uprising, when India granted asylum to the Dalai Lama. Chinese military action grew increasingly aggressive aft…

It literally was out of the blue. There were minimal troops stationed there. India had streets named after the friendship agreement with China, there were slogans that went “Indians and Chinese are brothers”. Brothers can have minor disagreements, but we have their back and they have hours.

The border was guarded about as well as the US-Canada border on the Indian side.

The surprise war caught India completely off guard. The surprise was so effective that China captured all the territory they wanted, killed thousands of Indian troops and declared a unilateral ceasefire before India could marshal a response.

Prime Minister Nehru was badly shocked by this betrayal. He never recovered from it. His health deteriorated rapidly and he died a little over a year later.

Consider that maybe a 2 minute skim of Wikipedia teaches you very little. Certainly not as much as reading many books on this subject, which I have.

Re: TSMC to make advanced AI semiconductors in Japan

#167

Post by testdelacc1 »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #86
testdelacc1 wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In 1962 China launched a surprise war against India. They did it in the same week as the Cuban missile crisis, ensuring that the US and USSR would be too distracted to intervene. This was after 13 years of friendship between India and China, where India had supported China in many ways including supporting the Communists getting the UN Security Council seat reserved for China. China and India had signed a friendship…

I’ve still never seen a good analysis for why Mao did that in ‘62 other than stupidity. Like, the centre of the world would be Asia today if Mao hadn’t needlessly (and profitlessly) trashed that goodwill.

It sort of made sense.

The 1962 war secured the road route between Tibet and Xinjiang. Very strategically valuable.

It also had the effect of uniting India, killing some budding separatist movements. It also made the Indian government prioritise strengthening the army for the first time, which meant the army was ready to fight Pakistan to a draw in 1965 and a victory in 1971.

So the war strengthened both China and India, and poisoned relations between them. Which was fine with Mao, he didn’t really care about good foreign relations.

Re: TSMC to make advanced AI semiconductors in Japan

#168

Post by ekianjo »

rich_sasha wrote: post #150
ekianjo wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The EU is exactly the image of a central government and worse of it all, its bureaucrats are not elected by anyone so you get bullshit like the zombie Chat control coming back every 2 months. The most dysfunctional system of all.

I'll take the EU over US, China, UN or any other bit bureaucracy you can think of. And I'll take the EU over ni EU as well.

that seems to be an unpopular take in Europe right now since you have a clear rise of extremist parties in all its corners.

Re: TSMC to make advanced AI semiconductors in Japan

#169

Post by insane_dreamer »

kyboren wrote: post #23

Japan and America have now both gotten TSMC to commit to a decent level of domestic advanced-node fabrication. Meanwhile Europe only got 40k WSPMs of 12+ nm capacity: https://overclock3d.net/news/software/bringing_advanced_semi...

EU never had significant chip fabrication (instead having a lock on the tooling) whereas Japan and the US essentially pioneered high-end chip manufacturing before losing ground to Taiwan and Korea.

Re: TSMC to make advanced AI semiconductors in Japan

#170

Post by testdelacc1 »

mamonster wrote: post #164
testdelacc1 wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In 1962 China launched a surprise war against India. They did it in the same week as the Cuban missile crisis, ensuring that the US and USSR would be too distracted to intervene. This was after 13 years of friendship between India and China, where India had supported China in many ways including supporting the Communists getting the UN Security Council seat reserved for China. China and India had signed a friendship…

>This was a good demonstration of how China views its neighbours. As vassals to be brought to heel from time to time, rather than equals. And China will use violence to achieve these aims. That’s the Mao doctrine, followed by every Chinese leader since. This is the Chinese way since at least Zheng He and treasure ship voyages.

I guess China was entitled to a reset in expectations after 1949. But what’s surprising is how little their world view changed before after the Communists came to power.
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