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You're right. It's been pretty incredible. It's also frustrating as hell though when people extrapolate from this progress Just because we're here doesn't mean we're getting to AGI or software developers begging for jobs at Starbucks
Sure then make your prediction? It’s always easy to hand wave and dismiss other people’s predictions. But make yours: what do you think llms can do in 2 years?
New code generation / modification I think we're hitting a point of diminishing returns and they're not going to improve much here
The limitation is fundamentally that they can only be as good as the detail in the specs given, or the test harnesses provided to them. Any detail left out they're going to make up, and hopefully it's what you want (often it's not!). If you make the specs detailed enough so that there's no misunderstanding possible: you've just written code, what we already do today
Code optimization I think they'll get quite a bit better. If you give them GCC it's probable they'll be able to improve upon it