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Two kinds of AI users are emerging

martinalderson.com

161–170 of 358 posts

Re: Two kinds of AI users are emerging

#161

I'd argue 2 types of users are * People using it as a tool, aware of its limitations and treating it basically as intern/boring task executor (whether its some code boilerplate, or pooping out/shortening some corporate email), or as tool to give themselves summary of topic they can then bite into deeper. * People outsourcing thinking and entire skillset to it - they usually have very little clue in the topic, are int…

Well the second group in your taxonomy are very unserious, I mean that's fine, it's OK to use an AI tool for vibing and self-amusement, there will be an entire multi-billion dollar entertainment industry which will grow up around that. In my personal experience, decisionmakers who fell into this camp and were frothing at the mouth about making serious business decisions this way are already starting to get a reality check.

From my perspective the distinction is more on the supply side and we have two generations of AI tools. The first generation was simply talking to a chatbot in a web UI and it's still got its uses, you chat and build up a context with it, it's relying heavily on its training data, maybe it's reading one file.

The second generation leans into RAG and agentic capabilities (if you can glob and grep or otherwise run a search, congrats you have v1 of your RAG strategy). This is where Gemini actually scans all the docs in our Google Workspace and produces a proposal similar to ones we've written before. (Do we even need document templates anymore?) Or where you start a new programming project and Claude can write all the boilerplate, deploy and set up a barebones test suite within a couple of minutes. There's no doubt that these types of tools give us new capabilities and in some cases save a lot more time than just babbling into chatgpt.com.

I think this accounts for a lot of differences in terms of reported productivity by the sane users. I was way less enthusiastic about AI productivity gains before I discovered the "gen 2" applications.

Re: Two kinds of AI users are emerging

#162
I remember a colleague jumping through hoops trying to get Python installed on an enterprise computer. We never did get to a yes and resorted to using PowerShell instead. The policy constraints at enterprises that this author describes are very real and very harmful.

Perhaps the wildest thing to me is how you'll have senior leaders in a company talking about innovation, but their middle managers actively undermine change out of fear of liability. So many enterprise IT employees are really just trying to avoid punishment that their organization cannot try new things without substantial top-down efforts to accept risk.

Re: Two kinds of AI users are emerging

#163
>What I've come to realise is that the power of having a bash sandbox with a programming language and API access to systems, combined with an agentic harness, results in outrageously good results for non technical users. It can effectively replace nearly every standard productivity app out there - both classic Microsoft Office style ones - and also web apps.

I very much doubt that tinkering with a non-repeatable, probabilistic process is how most non-technical users will routinely use software.

I can imagine power users taking this approach to _create_ or extend productivity tools for themselves and others, just like they have been doing with Excel for decades. It will not _replace_ productivity tools for most non-technical users.

Re: Two kinds of AI users are emerging

#164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Seems like you are part of the first group then, not the second. The fact that you are interested in learning and are using it as a tool disqualifies you from someone who has little clue and just wants to get something out (i.e. just spit out code)

As I reread the original post, I'm not actually not sure which group I fall into. I think there's a bunch of overlap depending on perspective/how you read it: > Group 1: intern/boring task executor Yup, that makes sense I'm in group 1. > Group 2: "outsourcing thinking and entire skillset to it - they usually have very little clue in the topic, are interested only in results" Also me (in this case), as I'm outsourcing…

False dichotomy is one of the original sins. The two groups as advertised aren't all that's out there. Most people are interested in results. How we get those results is part of the journey of getting results, and sometimes it's about the journey not the destination. I care very much about the results of my biopsy or my flight, I don't know much about how we get there, I want to know if I have cancer, and that my plane didn't crash. I hope that doesn't put me on the B ark that gets sent into the sun.

Re: Two kinds of AI users are emerging

#165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I started to outsource thinking at my job as my company made it very clear that they do not want/cant afford thinking engineers. Thinking requires time and they want to deliver quickly. So they cater towards the very realistic deadlines our PMs set for features (/s). Funnily enough the features have to be implemented ASAP according to the customers, but the customer feedback takes like 6 months due to them using the…

This is a fatalistic attitude, but I can totally get behind. It has become harder to associate my job with contributing with society.

I agree and I am far from being a senior engineer. I'm only in the market since a few years and started out just before the whole LLM stuff started to pick up. So I have been grinding a lot (2nd job I've learned, am in tech since ~2020) only to be confronted with permanent existential fear of having to possibly learn a 3rd job (which takes 3 years of full time work for neglectable pay in my country). I dont want to start from zero again and I am tired of corporations that are shitting out money to be cheap on their employees. Starting from zero is never fun, going back into debt is never fun and having to leave a job/career you like also is never fun. I'm 30 now and only ever have been making (noteworthy, still below median) money since 1.5 years now. I cant afford starting anew and there is little I can do about it which is extremely frustrating.

Re: Two kinds of AI users are emerging

#166

I've noticed a huge gap between AI use on greenfield projects and brownfield projects. The first day of working on a greenfield project I can accomplish a week of work. But the second day I can accomplish a few days of work. By the end of the first week I'm getting a 20% productivity gain. I think AI is just allowing everyone to speed-run the innovator's dilemma. Anyone can create a small version of anything, while b…

I call it the day50 problem, coined that about a year ago. I've been building tools to address it since then. Quit the dayjob 7 months ago and have been doing it full time since

https://github.com/day50-dev/

I have been meaning to put up a blog ...

Essentially there's a delta between what the human does and the computer produces. In a classic compiler setting this is a known, stable quantity throughout the life-cycle of development.

However, in the world of AI coding this distance increases.

There's various barriers that have labels like "code debt" where the line can cross. There's three mitigations now. Start the lines closer together (PRD is the current en vogue method), push out the frontier of how many shits someone gives (this is the TDD agent method), try to bend the curve so it doesn't fly out so much (this is the coworker/colleague method).

Unfortunately I'm just a one-man show so the fact that I was ahead and have working models to explain this has no rewards because you know, good software is hard...

I've explained this in person at SF events (probably about 40-50 times) so much though that someone reading this might have actually heard it from me...

If that's the case, hi, here it is again.

Re: Two kinds of AI users are emerging

#167

One the most reliable BS detectors I've found is when you have to try to convince other people of your edge . If you have found a model that accurately predicts the stock market, you don't write a blog post about how brilliant you are, you keep it quiet and hope no one finds out while you rake in profits. I still can't figure out quite what motivates these "AI evangelist" types (unlike crypto evangelists who clearly…

Agreed. I think even though the term is stupid calling them cognitive improvement tools makes sense. The models will get better but most people will never learn how to effectively prompt or plan with a agentic model.

Re: Two kinds of AI users are emerging

#168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Seems like you are part of the first group then, not the second. The fact that you are interested in learning and are using it as a tool disqualifies you from someone who has little clue and just wants to get something out (i.e. just spit out code)

As I reread the original post, I'm not actually not sure which group I fall into. I think there's a bunch of overlap depending on perspective/how you read it: > Group 1: intern/boring task executor Yup, that makes sense I'm in group 1. > Group 2: "outsourcing thinking and entire skillset to it - they usually have very little clue in the topic, are interested only in results" Also me (in this case), as I'm outsourcing…

They could admittedly be more defined, but I think the original commenter missed a key word. It really boils down to whether or not you are offloading your critical thinking.

The word "thinking" can be a bit nebulous in these conversations, and critical thinking perhaps even more ambiguously defined, so before we discuss that, we need to define it. I go with the Merriam-Webster definition: the act or practice of thinking critically (as by applying reason and questioning assumptions) in order to solve problems, evaluate information, discern biases, etc.

LLMs seem to be able to mimic this, particularly to those who have no clue what it means when we call an LLM a "stochastic parrot" or some equally esoteric term. At first I was baffled that anyone really thought that LLMs could somehow apply reason or discern its own biases but I had to take a step back and look at how that public perception was shaped to see what these people were seeing. LLMs, generative AI, ML, etc are all extremely complex things. Couple that with the pervasive notion that thinking is hard and you have a massive pool of consumers who are only too happy to offload some of that thinking on to something they may not fully understand but were promised that it would do what they wanted, which is make their daily lives a bit easier.

We always get snagged by things that promise us convenience or offer to help us do less work. It's pretty human to desire both of those things, but proving to be an Achilles Heel for many. How we characterize AI determines our expectations of it; so do you think of it as a bag of tools you can use to complete tasks? Or is it the whole factory assembly line where you can push a few buttons and an pseudo-finished product comes out the other side?

Re: Two kinds of AI users are emerging

#170

Thought this was going to be more about programmers, but it was actually about non technical users and Microsoft’s product development failure. One tidbit I’d disagree with is that only those using the bleeding edge AI tools are reaping the benefits. There seem to be a lot of highly specialized tools and a lot of specific configurations (and mystical incantations) to get them to work, and those are constantly changin…

> “Add this configuration variable for this entry point; split this class into two classes, one for each of the responsibilities that are currently crammed together; update the unit tests to reflect these changes, including splitting the tests for the old class into two different test classes; etc”

That's the type of input I give to Claude / Codex. Works for me.

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