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Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

electrek.co

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Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#161

Post by epistasis »

LunicLynx wrote: post #145
Forgeties79 wrote: post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s not weird. They have a history of over promising to the point that one could say they just straight up lie on a regular basis. The bar is higher for them because they have abused the public’s trust and it has to be earned again. The results have to speak for Tesla very loudly and very clearly. And so far they don’t.

But this is more your feelings than actually factual. I mean sure you can say that the timelines did slip a lot but that doesn’t really have anything to with the rest that is insinuated here. I would argue a timeline slipping doesn’t mean you go about killing people and lie about it next. I would even go so far as to say that the timelines did slip to exactly avoid that.

That's not "feelings" that's reputational data.

Tesla continues to overpromise, about safety, about timelines that slip due to safety.

We should be a bit more hard nosed and data based when dealing with these things rather than dismissing the core question due to "feelings" and due to Tesla not releasing the sort of data tha allows fair analysis b

Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#162

Post by tsimionescu »

mcpar-land wrote: post #156
SJMG wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure how defensible the lead was. The only reason BYD isn't the only game in town is tariffs. The pivot to Optimus is ridiculous though. They can't get a car to drive truly autonomously after more than a decade and they want to expand the degrees of freedom?

I'm glad Tesla is pivoting to a product that can drop your bag of groceries in the worst case, instead of one that can slam you into a concrete divider at 75mph.

In general, any robot that has servos powerful enough to be any of use is surprisingly dangerous to be around. While it's much easier to apply various limiters, the raw power in those engines will always pose a significant level of risk if anything goes wrong. If you're hovering above a human who sits up suddenly, you might get your nose broken. If it's a robot instead, it will have the strength and mass to easily mutilate you in the same kind of accident.

Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#165

Post by estearum »

parineum wrote: post #159
tsimionescu wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All of your arguments are expounded upon in the article itself, and their conclusions still hold, based on the publicly available data. The 3x figure in the title is based on a comparison of the Tesla reports with estimated average human driver miles without an incident, not based on police report data. The comparison with police-report data would lead to a 9x figure instead, which the article presents but quickly di…

> The 3x figure in the title is based on a comparison of the Tesla reports with estimated average human driver miles without an incident, not based on police report data. The comparison with police-report data would lead to a 9x figure instead, which the article presents but quickly dismisses. I think OP's point still stands here. Who are people reporting minor incidents to that would be publicly available that isn't…

Insurers?

I can't be certain about auto insurers, but healthcare insurers just straight up sell the insurance claims data. I would be surprised if auto insurers haven't found that same "innovation."

Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#166

Post by YeGoblynQueenne »

tsimionescu wrote: post #152
z7 wrote: post #7

The comparison isn't really like-for-like. NHTSA SGO AV reports can include very minor, low-speed contact events that would often never show up as police-reported crashes for human drivers, meaning the Tesla crash count may be drawing from a broader category than the human baseline it's being compared to. There's also a denominator problem. The mileage figure appears to be cumulative miles "as of November," while the…

All of your arguments are expounded upon in the article itself, and their conclusions still hold, based on the publicly available data. The 3x figure in the title is based on a comparison of the Tesla reports with estimated average human driver miles without an incident, not based on police report data. The comparison with police-report data would lead to a 9x figure instead, which the article presents but quickly di…

To add to this, more data from more regions means the estimate of average human miles without an incident is more accurate, simply because it is estimated from a larger sample, so more likely to be representative.

Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#167

Post by SoftTalker »

DennisP wrote: post #148
kakacik wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Elon is aware that Tesla insane market valuation would crash 10x if it stays a car company. I see nothing wrong here, correction back to reality. I understand why people adored him blindly in the early days, but liking him now after its clear what sort of person he is and always will be is same as liking trump. Many people still do it, but its hardly a defensible position unless on is already invested in his empire…

I saw a pretty convincing argument that Musk fried his brain with ketamine, written by a former ketamine abuser who saw a lot of familiar behavior. I don't think Musk is the same guy now that he was in the early days.

Sounds like a reach. Many people just loved the stuff he was doing and didn't really know much about him as a person. When a more complete picture (specifically his politics) emerged, and people decided they really didn't like the person, they had to resolve their cognitive dissonance by finding reasons they were right then and right now, instead of admitting they projected the person they imagined onto the person they really didn't know. Tech enthusiasts just never imagined that a guy doing so many cool things could turn out to be a right-winger.

Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#168

Post by user34283 »

tsimionescu wrote: post #113
user34283 wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I strongly oppose the constant slander and the litany of lies partisan commenters post about Musk. You don't get to throw out "fondness for throwing Nazi salutes" slander, based on an hoax immediately debunked at the time, and then act like you're doing democracy a favor. Try to stick to the facts. Regarding the journalist discussed here, I had a look at his X account, and he posted no less than 20 posts attacking Te…

> based on an hoax immediately debunked at the time We've all seen the video, there is no hoax and no doubt that he was doing a nazi salute, with some level of "humor" defense.

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Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#169

Post by YeGoblynQueenne »

parineum wrote: post #159
tsimionescu wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All of your arguments are expounded upon in the article itself, and their conclusions still hold, based on the publicly available data. The 3x figure in the title is based on a comparison of the Tesla reports with estimated average human driver miles without an incident, not based on police report data. The comparison with police-report data would lead to a 9x figure instead, which the article presents but quickly di…

> The 3x figure in the title is based on a comparison of the Tesla reports with estimated average human driver miles without an incident, not based on police report data. The comparison with police-report data would lead to a 9x figure instead, which the article presents but quickly dismisses. I think OP's point still stands here. Who are people reporting minor incidents to that would be publicly available that isn't…

FTA:

>> However, that figure doesn’t include non-police-reported incidents. When adding those, or rather an estimate of those, humans are closer to 200,000 miles between crashes, which is still a lot better than Tesla’s robotaxi in Austin.

Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#170

Post by _23sd »

philipallstar wrote: post #105
PaulRobinson wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

TFA does a comparison with average (estimated), low-speed contact events that are not police-reported by humans, of one incident every 200,000 miles. I think that's high - if you're including backing into static objects in car parks and the like, you can look at workshop data and extrapolate that a lower figure might be closer to the mark. TFA also does a comparison with other self-driving car companies, which you ac…

> TFA's main point is that we can't really know what this data means because Tesla keep their data secret If that's so, then the article title is very poor.

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