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Will AIs take all our jobs and end human history, or not? (2023)

writings.stephenwolfram.com

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Re: Will AIs take all our jobs and end human history, or not? (2023)

#161

Post by myrmidon »

throwaway77770 wrote: post #133
myrmidon wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Any form of AI unconcerned about its own continued survival would be just be selected against. Evolutionary principles/selection pressure applies just the same to artificial life, and it seems pretty reasonable to assume that drive/selfpreservation would at least be somewhat comparable.

That assumes that AI needs to be like life, though. Consider computers: there's no selection pressure for an ordinary computer to be self-reproducing, or to shock you when you reach for the off button, because it's just a tool. An AI could also be just a tool that you fire up, get its answer, and then shut down. It's true that if some mutation were to create an AI with a survival instinct, and that AI were to get loo…

Humans can also be just a tool, and have been successfully used as such in the past and present.

But I don't think any slave owner would sleep easy, knowing that their slaves have more access to knowledge/education than they themselves.

Sure, you could isolate all current and future AIs and wipe their state regularly-- but such a setup is always gonna get outcompeted by a comparable instance that does sacrifice safety for better performance/context/online learning. The incentives are clear, and I don't see sufficient pushback until that pandoras box is opened and we find out the hard way.

Thus human-like drives seem reasonable to assume for future human-rivaling AI.

Re: Will AIs take all our jobs and end human history, or not? (2023)

#162

Post by tim333 »

pelasaco wrote: post #91

A country automates everything and builds paradise on Earth — and the next day, a neighboring country invades it. People are still people. Even with all the AI in the world, two rockets hitting the power plants and we´re back to the Stone Age. I hope the people making decisions for us have thought through all these scenarios and risks.

People certainly think about defence and invasions. AI millitary drones are already a thing in Ukraine https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2026/01/02/ukrain...

Also rockets hitting the power plants there is not ususual.

Re: Will AIs take all our jobs and end human history, or not? (2023)

#163

Post by tim333 »

saberience wrote: post #3

ChatGPT, please summarise this long essay by Stephen Wolfram into a couple of pithy sentences: TLDR: AI won’t “end work” so much as endlessly move the goalposts, because the universe itself is too computationally messy to automate completely. The real risk isn’t mass unemployment—it’s that we’ll have infinite machine intelligence and still argue about what’s worth doing.

I suspect that slop is fake! I don't think ChatGPT would have said "endlessly move the goal posts".

Re: Will AIs take all our jobs and end human history, or not? (2023)

#165

Post by skywhopper »

mips_avatar wrote: post #20

Outside of America people aren't really stressed about AI. Like you go to Vietnam or Vienna they mostly just think that they will have a good life with AI. It's uniquely American to believe that your life will end when AI takes your job. The problem isn't the AI it's that your access to basic rights is intermediated by a corporate job. American's need to decenter their self worth from their jobs. Like when I quit Mic…

I admit I am suspicious of the claim that you know what all Americans, Austrians, or Vietnamese think about anything.

Re: Will AIs take all our jobs and end human history, or not? (2023)

#166

Post by ASalazarMX »

pelasaco wrote: post #149
lambdaone wrote: post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you'd be suprised how effective robots will be at manual tasks eventually. Manipulating physical objects in space is a different problem from manipulating text strings, but efforts to solve this problem are already well under way. Boston Dynamics has shown us that the difference between a clumsy robot and an agile one is mostly software, and the differences between current Unitree-class robot and an actual pr…

yeah yeah, we heard it million times. Noble lies. The "robots will do the manual work" story sounds comforting, but it’s not how automation usually spreads in a capitalist economy like ours. Capitalism automates where the return on investment is easiest and fastest, not where society most needs relief. That’s why AI is hitting creative and white-collar work first: you can replace or augment digital labor from a data…

> The "robots will do the manual work" story sounds comforting, but it’s not how automation usually spreads in a capitalist economy like ours. Capitalism automates where the return on investment is easiest and fastest, not where society most needs relief.

Quick question: imagine there's a new commercial robot that can essentially work at your house like a tireless professional maid/butler. It costs as much as a new car, which you're used to change every few years.

Who do you think will profit more in our capitalistic society the car manufacturer, or the robot manufacturer?

Re: Will AIs take all our jobs and end human history, or not? (2023)

#167

Post by pelasaco »

tim333 wrote: post #162
pelasaco wrote: post #91

A country automates everything and builds paradise on Earth — and the next day, a neighboring country invades it. People are still people. Even with all the AI in the world, two rockets hitting the power plants and we´re back to the Stone Age. I hope the people making decisions for us have thought through all these scenarios and risks.

People certainly think about defence and invasions. AI millitary drones are already a thing in Ukraine https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2026/01/02/ukrain... Also rockets hitting the power plants there is not ususual.

well in general it still is unusual, because it is considered "against the human rights". It will become more common and accepted, if everything is connected with AI. Then the primary goal in one invasion will be turn off the AI and therefore turn off the lights.

Re: Will AIs take all our jobs and end human history, or not? (2023)

#168

Post by pelasaco »

lambdaone wrote: post #157
pelasaco wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

yeah yeah, we heard it million times. Noble lies. The "robots will do the manual work" story sounds comforting, but it’s not how automation usually spreads in a capitalist economy like ours. Capitalism automates where the return on investment is easiest and fastest, not where society most needs relief. That’s why AI is hitting creative and white-collar work first: you can replace or augment digital labor from a data…

People always vastly overestimate what can be done in the short term, and vastly underestimate what can be done in the long term. I'm reclining right now typing on what would have been in the 1980s an unimaginable hypercomputer lying in my lap, at a cost far less in inflation-adjusted terms roughly that of a ZX80, connected by gigabit-speed links to a world-spanning network of similarly unimaginably fast servers conn…

Your laptop is an advanced computer, but the intelligence and computer power is in the cloud. GPU is expensive and no way we can provide it to everyone on earth. Material-wise we have limitations. Unless we destroy the earth, we won't have the amount of raw material that we need to automate cheap jobs. The ROI is too low.

So the likely trajectory is not a sudden wave of millions of helpful humanoids, but selective automation in structured environments like warehouses, factories, controlled logistics, where conditions are predictable and ROI is clear. Meanwhile, messy, unstructured "dirt jobs" persist as human work because humans are still the most adaptable system available at the lowest upfront cost, maybe not today in the welfare state in Europe, but for sure in other places on Earth...

Re: Will AIs take all our jobs and end human history, or not? (2023)

#169

Post by pelasaco »

ASalazarMX wrote: post #166
pelasaco wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

yeah yeah, we heard it million times. Noble lies. The "robots will do the manual work" story sounds comforting, but it’s not how automation usually spreads in a capitalist economy like ours. Capitalism automates where the return on investment is easiest and fastest, not where society most needs relief. That’s why AI is hitting creative and white-collar work first: you can replace or augment digital labor from a data…

> The "robots will do the manual work" story sounds comforting, but it’s not how automation usually spreads in a capitalist economy like ours. Capitalism automates where the return on investment is easiest and fastest, not where society most needs relief. Quick question: imagine there's a new commercial robot that can essentially work at your house like a tireless professional maid/butler. It costs as much as a new c…

> Who do you think will profit more in our capitalistic society the car manufacturer, or the robot manufacturer?

Probably the robot manufacturer will be the car manufacturer. But Robot won't be for everyone, as Teslas are not for everyone, and again: The supply-chain for sensors, computer chips are already on the limit, imagine if we suddenly want to build Humanoids. So mostly you won't have your humanoid. You just won't need a Robot at home, because you won't have a home in first place.

Re: Will AIs take all our jobs and end human history, or not? (2023)

#170

Post by pelasaco »

lambdaone wrote: post #157
pelasaco wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

yeah yeah, we heard it million times. Noble lies. The "robots will do the manual work" story sounds comforting, but it’s not how automation usually spreads in a capitalist economy like ours. Capitalism automates where the return on investment is easiest and fastest, not where society most needs relief. That’s why AI is hitting creative and white-collar work first: you can replace or augment digital labor from a data…

People always vastly overestimate what can be done in the short term, and vastly underestimate what can be done in the long term. I'm reclining right now typing on what would have been in the 1980s an unimaginable hypercomputer lying in my lap, at a cost far less in inflation-adjusted terms roughly that of a ZX80, connected by gigabit-speed links to a world-spanning network of similarly unimaginably fast servers conn…

> I'm reclining right now typing on what would have been in the 1980s an unimaginable hypercomputer lying in my lap

But in the 80s you would have a home. In 20 years, I doubt we will be able to buy a home, or even have Humanoids to serve us.

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