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Macron says €300B in EU savings sent to the US every year will be invested in EU

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Re: Macron says €300B in EU savings sent to the US every year will be invested in EU

#161

Post by bhouston »

downrightmike wrote: post #122
dmix wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To be fair, the Swedish pension fund specifically cited the US's "large budget deficits and growing government debt" for why they saw it as higher risk. That sort of thing is 100% politicians. https://www.thestandard.com.hk/wealth-and-investment/article...

Its worse than you think: The United States is currently experiencing a massive, accelerating debt crisis, with the gross federal debt surpassing $38 trillion as of late 2025. It is growing by $1 trillion roughly every 82 days. This debt level, which has exceeded 120% of the U.S. GDP,

To be fair, the US has been growing its federal debt my whole life. It is one of those things that seems unsustainable but then it continues. Of course, it is sustainable because of US dollar dominance in the world and that may be faltering with Trump, especially if the Federal Reserve loses its independence.

Re: Macron says €300B in EU savings sent to the US every year will be invested in EU

#162

Post by bhouston »

dogma1138 wrote: post #141
jacquesm wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As long as they lose less than they lose by keeping it in $ they're coming out ahead.

They don’t have a choice, they sell they get back dollars. What are they going to swap 8 trillion dollars into? And an even better question how? $8 trillion is about half the M3 of the Euro. In fact there are only about 20 trillion dollars right now, there isn’t even enough liquidity to cash out.

You definitely cannot do it all at once, all you can do is what China and India are doing, which is to slowly sell US treasuries over many years. China used to hold $1.3T of US treasuries but they now only hold just under $0.7T, thus about half has been sold. India similarly has reduced their holdings from $240B to $190 over the last year. It can be done, just not quickly.

Stocks generally survive currency devaluations, but treasuries do not. So I am not a fan of treasuries in this environment, but US stocks should be fairly resistant except for their dependency on the US economy, which could be disrupted in a currency devaluation.

Re: Macron says €300B in EU savings sent to the US every year will be invested in EU

#163

Post by bhouston »

dogma1138 wrote: post #160
Gud wrote: post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For one, they can stop feeding Microsoft and other American conglomerates and develop Free Software alternatives.

Ok, but that doesn’t answer the question how do you cash out on $8 trillion dollars and convert them into another currency.

India and China are buying gold: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/india-and-china-move.... Good time to be a gold bug.

Re: Macron says €300B in EU savings sent to the US every year will be invested in EU

#164

Post by tasuki »

nradov wrote: post #5

Macron is making up numbers. Unless the EU member states actually impose capital controls, investors will continue to send their capital wherever it can earn the highest returns. Profitable investment opportunities in the EU remain slim and so far they seem uninterested in pursuing a growth policy.

> Profitable investment opportunities in the EU remain slim

Is this investment advice?

Re: Macron says €300B in EU savings sent to the US every year will be invested in EU

#165

Post by dogma1138 »

bhouston wrote: post #162
dogma1138 wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They don’t have a choice, they sell they get back dollars. What are they going to swap 8 trillion dollars into? And an even better question how? $8 trillion is about half the M3 of the Euro. In fact there are only about 20 trillion dollars right now, there isn’t even enough liquidity to cash out.

You definitely cannot do it all at once, all you can do is what China and India are doing, which is to slowly sell US treasuries over many years. China used to hold $1.3T of US treasuries but they now only hold just under $0.7T, thus about half has been sold. India similarly has reduced their holdings from $240B to $190 over the last year. It can be done, just not quickly. Stocks generally survive currency devaluatio…

Both of them are doing it under pressure from the US to reduce how much debt they owe.

Many of these securities do not have a secondary market that isn’t in the US. Push comes to shove the US can block a lot of these trades.

Re: Macron says €300B in EU savings sent to the US every year will be invested in EU

#166

Post by jacquesm »

dogma1138 wrote: post #165
bhouston wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You definitely cannot do it all at once, all you can do is what China and India are doing, which is to slowly sell US treasuries over many years. China used to hold $1.3T of US treasuries but they now only hold just under $0.7T, thus about half has been sold. India similarly has reduced their holdings from $240B to $190 over the last year. It can be done, just not quickly. Stocks generally survive currency devaluatio…

Both of them are doing it under pressure from the US to reduce how much debt they owe. Many of these securities do not have a secondary market that isn’t in the US. Push comes to shove the US can block a lot of these trades.

> Push comes to shove the US can block a lot of these trades.

If you really want to see a re-run of 1929 that would be the way to get it.

Re: Macron says €300B in EU savings sent to the US every year will be invested in EU

#167

Post by bigbadfeline »

dogma1138 wrote: post #141
jacquesm wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As long as they lose less than they lose by keeping it in $ they're coming out ahead.

They don’t have a choice, they sell they get back dollars. What are they going to swap 8 trillion dollars into? And an even better question how? $8 trillion is about half the M3 of the Euro. In fact there are only about 20 trillion dollars right now, there isn’t even enough liquidity to cash out.

> What are they going to swap 8 trillion dollars into?

For African raw materials, Chinese commodities and components, etc - like everybody else with lots of $$. If you're paying attention, that also means higher inflation in the US.

Thanks, GOP geniuses... of course the rich, of which the admin is full of, love inflation because it makes them richer. If you complain about something, they'd blame China and Maduro, mission accomplished!

Re: Macron says €300B in EU savings sent to the US every year will be invested in EU

#168

Post by bhouston »

dogma1138 wrote: post #165
bhouston wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You definitely cannot do it all at once, all you can do is what China and India are doing, which is to slowly sell US treasuries over many years. China used to hold $1.3T of US treasuries but they now only hold just under $0.7T, thus about half has been sold. India similarly has reduced their holdings from $240B to $190 over the last year. It can be done, just not quickly. Stocks generally survive currency devaluatio…

Both of them are doing it under pressure from the US to reduce how much debt they owe. Many of these securities do not have a secondary market that isn’t in the US. Push comes to shove the US can block a lot of these trades.

> Both of them are doing it under pressure from the US to reduce how much debt they owe

Citation please?

Re: Macron says €300B in EU savings sent to the US every year will be invested in EU

#169

Post by toomuchtodo »

dogma1138 wrote: post #160
Gud wrote: post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For one, they can stop feeding Microsoft and other American conglomerates and develop Free Software alternatives.

Ok, but that doesn’t answer the question how do you cash out on $8 trillion dollars and convert them into another currency.

You sell into the market and buy a replacement asset. Easy peasy. No need to sell all at once, you simply change your strategy to invest new capital elsewhere and slowly roll off existing debt ownership.

Over time, the US will need to find someone willing to buy new US debt as existing buyers and holders invest elsewhere.

Re: Macron says €300B in EU savings sent to the US every year will be invested in EU

#170

Post by nradov »

bigbadfeline wrote: post #167
dogma1138 wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They don’t have a choice, they sell they get back dollars. What are they going to swap 8 trillion dollars into? And an even better question how? $8 trillion is about half the M3 of the Euro. In fact there are only about 20 trillion dollars right now, there isn’t even enough liquidity to cash out.

> What are they going to swap 8 trillion dollars into? For African raw materials, Chinese commodities and components, etc - like everybody else with lots of $$. If you're paying attention, that also means higher inflation in the US. Thanks, GOP geniuses... of course the rich, of which the admin is full of, love inflation because it makes them richer. If you complain about something, they'd blame China and Maduro, mis…

Those are thin markets, and not necessarily even open to most EU investors. Also, good luck getting your investment back when there's another coup or civil war in the target country.

Major investors have always had some level of international diversification and that will continue. But this recent EU move won't have any significant impact.

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