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Swedish Alecta has sold off an estimated $8B of US Treasury Bonds

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Re: Swedish Alecta has sold off an estimated $8B of US Treasury Bonds

#161

Post by toomuchtodo »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #154
loeg wrote: post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you think if you just sneer hard enough, it makes your viewpoint true or persuasive? There are probably two or three different commenting guidelines this runs afoul of: https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

You are arguing as if nothing material in the US has changed while at the same time arguing “be more polite towards my ignorance|avoidance of the situation.” It comes across as arguing in bad faith. The US can no longer be trusted based on the actions of this administration. Other countries are pragmatically and reasonably adjusting accordingly, very publicly. There are other options besides the US from an economic,…

Citation:

Europe is learning that a ‘deal’ with Trump doesn’t exist - https://www.cnn.com/2026/01/21/business/trump-davos-greenlan... - January 21st, 2026

Re: Swedish Alecta has sold off an estimated $8B of US Treasury Bonds

#163

Post by insane_dreamer »

ectospheno wrote: post #40

An equally valid headline is "Investors purchased $8B of US Treasury Bonds". Never really got the point of people announcing US Treasury sales like its a big thing. Someone else not thinking with their emotions can, and will buy them. Its like announcing publicly you are selling your Honda. Its your Honda bro, sell it.

You could say the same when your stock price drops because large investors dumped your stock suddenly. Yes, there was a buying party (or they wouldn't have been able to sell), but the price drop hurts your company and worse can trigger more sales and more price drops.

similar with the US T-bonds - this pushes the yield up making it more expensive for the US to finance its debt (which already consumes nearly a fifth of the entire federal budget).

Re: Swedish Alecta has sold off an estimated $8B of US Treasury Bonds

#164

Post by kasey_junk »

jacquesm wrote: post #110
kasey_junk wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can’t invest in EU sovereign debt though, only the constituent countries. The problem is that US treasuries have a bunch of features that can’t be replicated because of the size of the US economy. The only choice that comes close is China whose bonds are too illiberal to trade the same (and China has no interest in liberalizing them).

You can actually, but the volumes are too low to absorb a massive sell-off of US treasury paper.

It’s not just that the market isn’t deep enough. The current incarnation of EU bonds are not secured the same way typical sovereign bonds are. And they sort of can’t be without the member states ceding more sovereignty.

We’ll see if the EU member countries can approve a framework for bonds that are closer to a treasury in its guarantees, I’m skeptical but it could happen, but they don’t exist right now.

Re: Swedish Alecta has sold off an estimated $8B of US Treasury Bonds

#165

Post by kasey_junk »

jacquesm wrote: post #136
toomuchtodo wrote: post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So the EU should issue more volume and establish a strategy to start rotating from US debt to EU debt. No one is calling for dumping $8T of treasuries on the market overnight; it's entirely reasonable to start issuing Euro debt and communicating the expectation to start selling down US treasuries to European entities that hold them. "Plan the work and work the plan."

Yes, they should. The interesting bit here is that the USA has been an endless sink for funds simply because they have been spending way above their means, and that this worked in large part because there was trust. Breaking that trust is super risky from a US point of view. Europe has been more conservative in their spending and as a result needs a place to park their excesses, because there are not enough ways to s…

It’s also part of the reserve currency dynamics. It’s not clear how the modern bond market will work in a post dollar world, we frankly don’t have an example.

It’s entirely possible that the EU can overcome the political struggles that a true EU bond brings about (I’d love to see how a bond would work that both the Hungarian and Danish and French and Greek governments would back long term) but it seems just as likely that each country will hold bonds in lots of countries, probably in some similar relationship to their trade imbalance.

But this is not some unmitigated win for the EU, there is just as likely to be really inefficient and riskier outcomes for everybody as there is some karmic punishment for the States for allowing Trump to run amok.

Re: Swedish Alecta has sold off an estimated $8B of US Treasury Bonds

#166

Post by scoofy »

ethbr1 wrote: post #160
hadlock wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The only goal right now for a lot of people in Washington is to make "Number Go Up" ahead of November. So far the current strategies haven't been working, so they're going to have to get a lot more aggressive. Medium and long term consequences are a problem for the future.

Skirting close to or breaking the law has substantially worse outcomes in divided government. The GOP paranoia about November smacks of a belated realization that there might be consequences for things that were done.

I mean, they've gerrymandered the country so much it's nearly impossible... good luck to the ones with very "efficiently" cracked districts.

Re: Swedish Alecta has sold off an estimated $8B of US Treasury Bonds

#167

Post by scoofy »

robinsoncrusue wrote: post #156
jacquesm wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're going to make a lot of money then by shorting EU stocks, right?

Stock market is different from bond market, but bond market everywhere is showing stress signal. Just look at Japan. But yeah, eventually it will spill in stocks.

Fixed income are just the weirdest markets. Like, the most boring and the most insane... kind of at the same time.

Re: Swedish Alecta has sold off an estimated $8B of US Treasury Bonds

#168

Post by geoka9 »

stevenwoo wrote: post #159
zrn900 wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What are some realistic alternatives to US markets here? It seems to be precious metals. And at this point in time, especially silver. Even Indian government seems to be stockpiling silver.

At first I was leaning toward FGLD but didn't consider that current admin would blow up everything US, there are European alternatives to FGLD that OP might want to investigate that have physical metal reserves (there are many alternatives that represent various tiers of involvement in mining versus just holding precious metals, I'm speculating OP does not want to possess precious metals themselves).

There's KILO if you're cool with your bullion stored at the Royal Canadian Mint.

Re: Swedish Alecta has sold off an estimated $8B of US Treasury Bonds

#169

Post by defrost »

geoka9 wrote: post #168
stevenwoo wrote: post #159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At first I was leaning toward FGLD but didn't consider that current admin would blow up everything US, there are European alternatives to FGLD that OP might want to investigate that have physical metal reserves (there are many alternatives that represent various tiers of involvement in mining versus just holding precious metals, I'm speculating OP does not want to possess precious metals themselves).

There's KILO if you're cool with your bullion stored at the Royal Canadian Mint.

A lot of mints about the globe offer remote purchase and local storage, eg: Perth Mint in Australia - https://www.perthmint.com/invest/information-about-gold-and-...

Physical is great if you like Kangaroos, Koalas, Emus, Dragons, Snakes, Koi, etc.

They really need a Quokka: https://www.perthmint.com/shop/bullion/bullion-coins/

Re: Swedish Alecta has sold off an estimated $8B of US Treasury Bonds

#170

Post by christkv »

KellyCriterion wrote: post #108
christkv wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You have no idea how that would destroy the Norwegian State. They are addicted to money from that fund. A collapse in it's value would have direct impact on the finances of the state. Nearly 1/4 of the budget is funded from that found a year.

The contribution of the State Fund to national pensions is around 20-25% to the state expenses

And increasing year after year.
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