Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

jpmorgan.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

161–170 of 913 posts

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#161

Post by usrbinenv »

mannyv wrote: post #134

De-dollarization is one of those things economists love to talk about. The chance of the dollar losing its reserve currency status is slim-to-none. No matter how bizarre the US is, nobody trusts the Chinese Communist Party (CPP). And although the US can manipulate the value of the dollar, its tools are limited compared to the CPP. Plus, the US is still the only country that's willing and able to prop up the world fin…

It's far from slim - it's very likely USD and EUR hegemony will be challenged. Western financial systems are ultimately and inherently discriminatory towards any non-western countries. Where for westerners using those systems enjoy reliability and predictability, the same systems implicitly (and recently, more explicitly) punish non-westerners with excessive compliance and scrutiny. So, basically, if you're from a non-western country, good luck not having your money confiscated or fronzen at some point - and this applies both on state-level and individual level. Of course sensible countries will seek alternatives and will create ways to bypass this elitist bullshit. The whole thing is literally nothing else but inertia at this point and over time both USD and EUR systems are destined to become merely regional.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#162

Post by zero-sharp »

torlok wrote: post #44
snovymgodym wrote: post #3

The international value of the dollar as a reserve and trade currency is inherently tied to the behavior of the US Government and the Federal Reserve. The behavior of the US Government has been very unusual lately, and the independence of the Federal Reserve is actively being challenged. So draw from that whatever conclusions you wish.

[flagged]

I'm sorry, but was there a specific point you wanted to make in relation to the first two sentences of the grandparent's post?

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#163

Post by sieabahlpark »

throwaway290 wrote: post #102
mothballed wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The 10th amendment limits the federal government to the enumerated powers. So your argument that it "isn't prohibited" isn't how this works. You have to justify it under an enumerated power (which, you might well be able to do, though this is debatable).

> The 10th amendment limits the federal government to the enumerated powers. federal reserve is not government... that's kinda the entire point) its why current US admin is being so butthurt about it, it's not under its control.

[dead]

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#166

Post by stickfigure »

hintymad wrote: post #135

Honest question: isn't it just a matter of time before US dollar loses its dominance, given that US has been losing its manufacturing business? I mean, can people really keep investing in the US market if they need less and less stuff produced by the US?

Why is manufacturing so special? As opposed to something like software?

Also, manufacturing in the US is growing not shrinking. For a long time.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#167

Post by chrisco255 »

munk-a wrote: post #114
softwaredoug wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s not just that This is a gradual decline. From 70% in the 90s to 60% today. Today there are more options like the Euro that didn’t exist in the 90s. People can argue over EU economic stability, but it’s there as reasonable option.

There is a very sudden shift though - those options have existed but not generally been seriously considered. The US was seen as a bastion of stability and while sanctions could drastically impact a country's ability to trade due to the reliance on US currency exchange it has arguably been used relatively scarcely. The change is that suddenly the US isn't a bastion of stability and having an independent trading curre…

The U.S. is as stable as it gets. It has been one continuous republic and has 250 years of legal stability and a history of paying its debts. It has 4.2% GDP growth, with the largest economy in the world and growing.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#168

Post by FrustratedMonky »

softwaredoug wrote: post #83
snovymgodym wrote: post #3

The international value of the dollar as a reserve and trade currency is inherently tied to the behavior of the US Government and the Federal Reserve. The behavior of the US Government has been very unusual lately, and the independence of the Federal Reserve is actively being challenged. So draw from that whatever conclusions you wish.

It’s not just that This is a gradual decline. From 70% in the 90s to 60% today. Today there are more options like the Euro that didn’t exist in the 90s. People can argue over EU economic stability, but it’s there as reasonable option.

when do we reach a tipping point for rapid decline?

seems like once it starts falling, it would accelerate.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#169

Post by dv_dt »

calvinmorrison wrote: post #76
munk-a wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It isn't prohibited by the constitution and was created as an independent body. You are correct that it wasn't specifically outlined by the constitution but that's an empty statement - the constitution included the allowance of the creation of agencies and laws outside of itself... that's the main power and strength of the constitution. Your statement was equivalent to saying that Hacker News has no constitutional ri…

Maybe unsaid but the idea that Congress can create an organization that is not executed by the executive is the issue

If you go by the default constitutional allocations, Congress starts with much tighter control of how the executive operates than it does now. Via passage of laws, Congress over the years has chosen to delegate a lot of responsibility to the executive branch - some for pragmatic management reasons, but some as a trend of historic concentration of power towards the executive. Congress can also delegate to non exec branch bodies like the Fed and other quasi-govermental orgs. Congress has the constitutional purview to take back a lot of that power into it's direct hands instead of allocating it to other bodies if it so chose.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#170

Post by parsimo2010 »

parsimo2010 wrote: post #138
softwaredoug wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s not just that This is a gradual decline. From 70% in the 90s to 60% today. Today there are more options like the Euro that didn’t exist in the 90s. People can argue over EU economic stability, but it’s there as reasonable option.

As time goes on, fewer people are alive that predate the EU and more people will perceive it as a lasting institution. Additionally, we've now seen the EU survive the departure of a major economic power (the UK). More people are certainly willing to believe in the stability of the EU now. Another major currency is the Yuan, and some countries may be as willing to trade in Yuan to improve relations with China, so perh…

And to add on (rather than edit my comment), I think the saving grace that keeps USD around for a while longer is the last section of the article, "Deposit dollarization in emerging markets"

A lot of growing economies don't/can't trust their local currency and they overwhelmingly use USD instead of EUR or CNY. As those economies grow the USD gets a boost that will sustain it for a while over the increasing competition of CNY. But this can't sustain it forever and the US is not doing anything to offset the lost ground in global trade and forex reserves.

Post reply on HN