Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

theatlantic.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

161–170 of 517 posts

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#161

Post by WolfCop »

perfmode wrote: post #145
smeej wrote: post #127

> The irony of prediction markets is that they are supposed to be a more trustworthy way of gleaning the future than internet clickbait and half-baked punditry, but they risk shredding whatever shared trust we still have left. The suspiciously well-timed bets that one Polymarket user placed right before the capture of Nicolás Maduro may have been just a stroke of phenomenal luck that netted a roughly $400,000 payout.…

The missing piece is the distinction between a market that observes reality and a market that instigates it. The criticism is about the systemic risk of converting prediction markets into "Assassination Markets"—mechanisms where the payout is not a reward for foresight, but a bounty for action. In the case of Maduro, the operation cost around $300 million so a $400,000 payout isn’t providing a financial incentive. Bu…

> In the case of Maduro, the operation cost around $300 million so a $400,000 payout isn’t providing a financial incentive.

It is if you are spending someone else’s $300 million, and getting the $400,000 yourself.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#162

Post by Imustaskforhelp »

lovich wrote: post #126
contravariant wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's somewhat interesting how the wisdom of the crowd and economic theory for rational actors are usually combined as an argument for free markets. While the reverse is not used as an argument against unchecked wealth.

I’ve used it. There’s no functional difference in how markets work when 99% of wealth is owned by a handful of kings vs 99% of wealth being owned by a handful of oligarchs.

I don't really think so. You just swapped the term king to Oligarchs. In fact the Oligarchs are even worse because people think that they have freedom when they might not in fact have such freedom in the first place.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#163

Post by vultour »

vlark wrote: post #48

Stop calling them "prediction markets" and start calling them what they really are: corporatized bookies.

I just can't take anyone who uses that term seriously. Just because a billionaire CEO told you it's not gambling doesn't mean it's true.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#164

Post by gpm »

WolfCop wrote: post #161
perfmode wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The missing piece is the distinction between a market that observes reality and a market that instigates it. The criticism is about the systemic risk of converting prediction markets into "Assassination Markets"—mechanisms where the payout is not a reward for foresight, but a bounty for action. In the case of Maduro, the operation cost around $300 million so a $400,000 payout isn’t providing a financial incentive. Bu…

> In the case of Maduro, the operation cost around $300 million so a $400,000 payout isn’t providing a financial incentive. It is if you are spending someone else’s $300 million, and getting the $400,000 yourself.

Or if you're the military commander with the option to disobey the illegal order (to go to war without congressional authorization) or take the bribe and execute the order. "Unmarked cash" (which this is) has pretty different purposes from official funds.

I think there's a pretty good chance the person who took that money was opportunistic, this time, but $400k isn't a trivial sum of money, it's not impossible it was the difference between this happening and not.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#165

Post by halfmatthalfcat »

giantg2 wrote: post #155
pseudalopex wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Right now Polymarket is subject to a federal agreement that they don't let US people participate. This changed last month.

What changed?

They bought a CFTC regulated exchange

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#166

Post by Imustaskforhelp »

stickfigure wrote: post #45
dh2022 wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But polling is still scientific and harder to manipulate than the betting markets. All of this is covered in th article. You should read it-it is a good article.

The solution is baked into the problem. If prediction markets become generally embraced by the public (mentioning them on CNN is part of that evolution) then they will be much harder to manipulate. Size matters.

You are assuming everyone stay rational & this becomes a pre-election itself (like poll) but it can change and multiple reasons

You got to give even a 1000$ or something in this bet, you are gonna be so vocal about support, manipulation of data to convince unconvinced voters to join you or other details

The unconvinced voters are simply gonna bet on the voting side after sometime. For context, a third of the population in US iirc doesn't vote so what's gonna happen is that a difference of few %'s Lead could turn into something massive

And that few % can easily be rigged by an irrational actor. You are thinking 1 person = 1 vote (yes/no) but I may be wrong but how these work is in the aggregate and so a rich person can cause much more disruption within the voting system "legally" as well.

The point here is the legal part where what can end/what would end up happening is that elites around the world with irrational money can basically get political bases & favours established around the world for their purposes

Suppose an election is at 49 A / 51 B but now a rich guy contacted A and said to invest x$ to now make the odds 51 A / 49 B and then this news gets to twitter or any platform and now people get false news and some undecided voters might go bet on 51 itself too so now it might be 53/47 and in real voting election 51 A/49B

Some Elections are really close so I am pretty sure something like this is bound to happen sooner than later

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#167

Post by uyzstvqs »

Prediction markets are not considered gambling for the same reason that stock markets aren't. There's no fixed odds or random chance. A skilled analyst can make consistent returns.

Unlike stock markets, prediction markets also provide valuable data on important world events, such as elections. It's wisdom of the crowd with financial incentive.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#168

Post by [deleted] »

uyzstvqs wrote: post #167

Prediction markets are not considered gambling for the same reason that stock markets aren't. There's no fixed odds or random chance. A skilled analyst can make consistent returns. Unlike stock markets, prediction markets also provide valuable data on important world events, such as elections. It's wisdom of the crowd with financial incentive.

[deleted]

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#169

Post by giantg2 »

halfmatthalfcat wrote: post #165
giantg2 wrote: post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What changed?

They bought a CFTC regulated exchange

Yeah, but they're still enforcing the location stuff. I don't think they've fully switched over to regulated contracts.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#170

Post by mattgreenrocks »

keiferski wrote: post #44
BurningFrog wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe, like myself, you're just aging into being a bit of a conservative.

Eh, I don’t think not wanting gambling and amoral behavior to consume society makes me a conservative in any real sense of the word. More just common sense pragmatism, is how I’d put it.

IMO, the world simply functions better when we strive for virtue.
Post reply on HN