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Predicting OpenAI's ad strategy

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Re: Predicting OpenAI's ad strategy

#161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Perhaps the actual solution is to ban ads through regulation, https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43595269

Regulation is theater, effectively, thanks to regulatory capture.

For now, it is, yes; but we must both plan for a future when that might not be the case, and advocate for effective regulations regardless.

Re: Predicting OpenAI's ad strategy

#162
post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

With that logic, are you also going to expect Kagi to generate minimum $10B to $35B in revenue a quarter over the next 27 years then, the lifetime of Google's existence? Do you see how such a comparison doesn't work?

No, I don't expect it to be the next Google, nor did my statement imply that. The point was that just because something is small doesn't mean it has to remain small. That is true whether or not Kagi never becomes the biggest. > Do you see how such a comparison doesn't work? No, I don't.

Thank you for admitting that Kagi is not a viable counter example.

Re: Predicting OpenAI's ad strategy

#163

I think ads will inevitably roll out across all tiers, even the expensive paid ones. Ad revenue isn't uniformly distributed across users, but rather heavily skewed towards the wealthiest users, exactly the users most able to purchase an ad-free experience. The users paying $20 or $200/month for premium tiers of ChatGPT are precisely the ones you don't want to exclude from generating ad revenue. Google realized this a…

>Google realized this a long time ago; there is no ad-free paid version of Google Search.

Google actually experimented with this about a decade ago (I know, I was one of the suckers who paid), but it got canned because why the fuck would you pay google when u-bloc is free?

Companies absolutely will offer ad-free experiences. Google has youtube premium, which even compensates creators with half your sub as well. Evenly distributed too.

People get wrapped around the axle of ad-subsidized models, the "I pay and still see ads" but they just are confused about a hybrid monetization structure.

At some point the larger internet has to look itself in the mirror and recognize that it's either ads, credit card, or a hybrid of those.

And no, blocking is not an option, it just offloads costs onto honest users.

Re: Predicting OpenAI's ad strategy

#164
I'm surprised how few seem to understand this; AI is the ultimate 'net' to capture and exploit consumers. AI was never about improving civilization; it was always about money. This is the only thing 'inevitable' about AI.

Re: Predicting OpenAI's ad strategy

#166

There is something to be said about the state of advertising. Increasingly it seems you must go to the almighty Google or Meta in order to launch any business. We're looking to expand into a new business line and have out grown our pharmacy capacity. The new business line will cost about $2M in software dev, and $3M for the new facility. The advertising budget? $40,000,000 (annual). We can build 10 robotic pharmacies…

Advertising is a tax that goes to an oligopolistic cartel.

Re: Predicting OpenAI's ad strategy

#167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This kills me, and you're right - there's no escaping the ads even with a sub. Take online journalism as an example. We're already being double-billed. Expensive subscription news like WSJ, Bloomberg and it's been a while but even FT require ad blockers even if you're subscribed.. If you're not subscribed you don't even see the ads because you can't see the full article. It's wild that we've normalized this. There's…

Perhaps the actual solution is to ban ads through regulation, https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43595269

I am all for it but it would be hard to enforce. Ads are already hidden everywhere. Someone "review" a product? Most of the time it is a hidden ad even if the reviewer hasn't been paid with money for that. Watches a movie or a video clip? A lots of products are advertised through close ups on the logos, etc.

Re: Predicting OpenAI's ad strategy

#169
post #140

There is something to be said about the state of advertising. Increasingly it seems you must go to the almighty Google or Meta in order to launch any business. We're looking to expand into a new business line and have out grown our pharmacy capacity. The new business line will cost about $2M in software dev, and $3M for the new facility. The advertising budget? $40,000,000 (annual). We can build 10 robotic pharmacies…

In order to sell anything, people need to know about it. Google and Meta provide a way to make this possible. If they didn't exist, you wouldn't somehow have a more affordable way to get people to know about your product. However frustrating the current situation is, it is still more accessible than needing access to the airwaves or print media to try to sell anything new.

That's generally my thought as well, I am not implying you don't need to advertise. I just believe the industry has more or less reverted to an even worse version of what we had before (TV & Radio ads). At least before, there was ~100 networks you could sell to, now there's basically 10 if you include major networks. Of course you don't actually launch new products with TV ads, so it is more or less 2 platforms.

Re: Predicting OpenAI's ad strategy

#170

To those who believe ads are evil and must be stopped, I ask how the world will work if we kill the freedom to sell space for commercial messages where people can see them.

In general I think the answer could be pretty simple: dedicated marketplaces for products and services, where we go to search for the things we need and want. A humble newspaper contains great examples of good and bad advertising.

Newspapers have whole pages of bad ads, and random bad ads wedged between actual content. Ads have a perverse incentive to mimic the look of actual content, just like on the web. I'd never pick up a newspaper with a goal of "I want to find a tax service" and yet ads for such services are there, unwanted, wedged into other content.

But newspapers also have classified sections, a better kind of ad. They're in a predictable place, where you can go if you need a job.

Imagine if the actual content weren't perforated by a scattershot of ads. Ad revenue would go down, but readership would likely go up. Besides profit motives, it's also a case of the good of the many outweighing the good of the few.

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