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Iran has now been offline for 96 hours

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Re: Iran has now been offline for 96 hours

#161

Related? "Bitchat for Gaza – messaging without internet" https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45929358 14-nov-2025 292 comments Perhaps also other such apps like Briar, Birdy, Meshtastic/Meshcore ?

The pro Gaza crowd is also pro-Iranian theocratic regime (because they back Hamas) and call anyone who wants change Israelis so I wouldn't recommend using any of their tools in such a life or death situation.

Re: Iran has now been offline for 96 hours

#162

Related? "Bitchat for Gaza – messaging without internet" https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45929358 14-nov-2025 292 comments Perhaps also other such apps like Briar, Birdy, Meshtastic/Meshcore ?

The pro Gaza crowd is also pro-Iranian theocratic regime (because they back Hamas) and call anyone who wants change Israelis so I wouldn't recommend using any of their tools in such a life or death situation.

> The pro Gaza crowd is also pro-Iranian theocratic regime

No, they're not.

Re: Iran has now been offline for 96 hours

#163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What point are you trying to make here? I said Israel obviously wants Iran gone and stands to gain a lot from doing so. You didn’t address either of those points, which are extremely relevant when trying to understand why foreign powers want this regime removed and would be involved in its removal. I agree Israel is not a US proxy (the tail wags the dog in this relationship), but freeing oneself from needing the (or…

You literally just asked me to write that. I didn't have a point to make; I was answering a question you just asked.

[dead]

Re: Iran has now been offline for 96 hours

#164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We're seeing what looks to be a full blown economic collapse. People don't have money to buy food right now. I don't see what reforms they could implement that can quickly fix this as they need to radically alter trust in the government for currency reforms to work. But who knows? Maybe they'll muddy their way through or rely on force to stay in power. Certainly large protests have happened before, but this is the fi…

> all 5 conditions of a successful revolution I'm not too bright, could you point me in the direction of understanding what those five conditions are?

It's from Jack's Goldstone's Revolutions: A Very Short Introduction.

Nicole Bauer did a better job paraphrasing than I can, so I'll just quote her:

> [Goldstone] notes that a revolution requires lack of support from or alienation of elites, a crisis such as a fiscal strain, mass mobilization and popular anger against perceived injustices, an ideology of resistance, and favorable international relations. Most important, Goldstone debunks the common misconception that revolutions spring from an excess of injustice and poverty leading to frustration and eventual resistance. Poverty and frustration are not enough to ignite a revolution as countless examples, such as the Irish Potato Famine, have shown. What is needed is widespread belief that change is both desirable and possible, as well as a convergence of the factors mentioned above.

Re: Iran has now been offline for 96 hours

#165
post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The pro Gaza crowd is also pro-Iranian theocratic regime (because they back Hamas) and call anyone who wants change Israelis so I wouldn't recommend using any of their tools in such a life or death situation.

> The pro Gaza crowd is also pro-Iranian theocratic regime No, they're not.

This thread has been cleaned up but it was wild. They very much are. The wildest stuff is gone but:

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46547303 https://news.ycombinator.com/reply?id=46547807&goto=item%3Fi... https://news.ycombinator.com/reply?id=46556525&goto=item%3Fi... https://news.ycombinator.com/reply?id=46548546&goto=item%3Fi...

Re: Iran has now been offline for 96 hours

#166
post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's being downvoted because it's mostly nonsense based on what I'm aware of. Please enlighten us with some of this easily verifiable information.

[flagged]

Please don't post like this here. HN is not for political or ideological battle or grand assessments/proclamations about geopolitical history. We also don't want giant walls of copy+pasted material here. We're here to converse curiously and contribute our own original thoughts.

Everyone who participates here needs to observe the guidelines. These ones in particular are relevant.

Comments should get more thoughtful and substantive, not less, as a topic gets more divisive.

Eschew flamebait. Avoid generic tangents. Omit internet tropes.

Please don't use Hacker News for political or ideological battle. It tramples curiosity.

https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

Re: Iran has now been offline for 96 hours

#167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I know there's a sizable cohort of online people in the west who are convicted of the idea that Israel exists solely as a US proxy and is held in check only by Iran, but obviously no. Israel --- leave aside all the moral stuff right now --- is a hypercapable advanced high-state-capacity regional nuclear power with an extremely effective military. If they didn't buy arms from us, they'd buy them from someone we liked…

What point are you trying to make here? I said Israel obviously wants Iran gone and stands to gain a lot from doing so. You didn’t address either of those points, which are extremely relevant when trying to understand why foreign powers want this regime removed and would be involved in its removal. I agree Israel is not a US proxy (the tail wags the dog in this relationship), but freeing oneself from needing the (or…

The general idea is that Iran would be more effective as a regional power if it wasn't ruled by islamists. And that at least the current government of Israel likes incompetent neighbours that make them look good.

Not a difficult argument in my view. Unless you're stuck believing what they say instead of observing what they do.

Re: Iran has now been offline for 96 hours

#168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> all 5 conditions of a successful revolution I'm not too bright, could you point me in the direction of understanding what those five conditions are?

It's from Jack's Goldstone's Revolutions: A Very Short Introduction . Nicole Bauer did a better job paraphrasing than I can, so I'll just quote her: > [Goldstone] notes that a revolution requires lack of support from or alienation of elites, a crisis such as a fiscal strain, mass mobilization and popular anger against perceived injustices, an ideology of resistance, and favorable international relations. Most importa…

I don't understand, how is your "We're seeing what looks to be a full blown economic collapse. People don't have money to buy food right now" compatible with "Goldstone debunks the common misconception that revolutions spring from an excess of injustice and poverty leading to frustration and eventual resistance"

All I'm saying is that I don't see the regime falling currently, and even if it does, there is no obvious replacement. which might mean civil war or something even worse than now. There is also no indication that a new regime, chosen by actual Iranian people (not the shah's son) would give up its nuclear ambitions (which were actually started by the shah). So what is even the point of doing regime change? My guess is regime change is not what the US and Israel are even trying for, but just chaos to weaken a local power and a source of fuel for China, etc..

Re: Iran has now been offline for 96 hours

#169
post #167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What point are you trying to make here? I said Israel obviously wants Iran gone and stands to gain a lot from doing so. You didn’t address either of those points, which are extremely relevant when trying to understand why foreign powers want this regime removed and would be involved in its removal. I agree Israel is not a US proxy (the tail wags the dog in this relationship), but freeing oneself from needing the (or…

The general idea is that Iran would be more effective as a regional power if it wasn't ruled by islamists. And that at least the current government of Israel likes incompetent neighbours that make them look good. Not a difficult argument in my view. Unless you're stuck believing what they say instead of observing what they do.

It seems pretty reasonably that Israel would be happy with a neighbor that doesn't call for its annihilation out of ideologic reasons.

Re: Iran has now been offline for 96 hours

#170
post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why do you think it's extraordinary? I know quite a lot of Iranians, and when I talked about this with them about a year ago, their lay of the land given their own opinions and their wider networks opinion is that the majority of Iranians are pro-regime change but NOT at the hands of a US/Israeli intervention. There are anti-regime segments that are pro-US/Israel intervention, but they think this is a minority and th…

The protests are, by credible reporting, huge, reflected in the scale of the number of arrests and fatalities. Their antecedents include sky-high unemployment, the highest inflation rates in the world, and water and power rationing --- far more severe and far more directly material conditions than what preceded the 2022 protests. Diverse outlets have the signal chant of the protesters "Neither Gaza Nor Lebanon, My Li…

> There's no evidence that foreign powers are behind these protests

Depends how stringently you mean that.

Earlier this year Israel attacked Iran with the stated intent of helping the people with regime change.

The mossad stated they have agents acting in the field. https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-881733

The whole reason for doing sanctions was to get to this point, too.

If you're trying to say that the vast majority of citizens aren't taking orders from foreign powers, then sure.

But "no evidence that foreign powers are behind these protests" is a pretty extreme thing to say

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