Earlier quoted context omitted.
Google ads are often like paying someone to stand in front of your business and hand out flyers to everyone going inside. Sure, a lot of your visitors were handed a flyer by google before they showed up in your store, but were any of them new customers?
And if you don't pay them, the spots in front of your store are instead filled by people handing out flyers about your competitor down the street. They don't just take credit for people that were coming to your site anyway, they actively steer them away with competing ads if you aren't paying enough.
Bots are getting good at mimicking engagement
161–170 of 312 posts
Re: Bots are getting good at mimicking engagement
#162Re: Bots are getting good at mimicking engagement
#163Hi HN. I run a marketing agency and fell down this rabbit hole after a client's analytics made no sense (50k visitors, 47 sales). I ended up building a simple script to track user behavior and analyzed 200+ small e-commerce sites. The average was 73% bot traffic that standard analytics counts as real. The bots are getting creepily good at mimicking engagement. I wrote up my findings, including some of the bizarre pat…
In Google Ads you can just turn off the option to run your ads on non-Google sites; I think it's called their Display Network. Just run your campaign only on Google's search pages.
I'm surprised the article doesn't mention this rather common solution.
Re: Bots are getting good at mimicking engagement
#164The dead Internet theory is a conspiracy theory which asserts that since around 2016 the Internet has consisted mainly of bot activity and automatically generated content manipulated by algorithmic curation, as part of a coordinated and intentional effort to control the population and minimize organic human activity.
Re: Bots are getting good at mimicking engagement
#165I did work in the ad tech industry for almost 15y and big corp like Google/FB scam their user: - they don't allow double tracking, so you have to trust their numbers - if you look at IP from their "clicks", you see often a FB/Google datacenter IP range - and for most of the traffic they might send you, they did just clever algorithm and heavy profiling to stole your organic traffic. So they get this "amazing" perform…
Google ads are often like paying someone to stand in front of your business and hand out flyers to everyone going inside. Sure, a lot of your visitors were handed a flyer by google before they showed up in your store, but were any of them new customers?
Re: Bots are getting good at mimicking engagement
#166Earlier quoted context omitted.
Some of us knew it, but it's getting worse. And I've worked adjacent to or on marketing teams for the the last decade... and I can't explain why but my theory is they all trust the numbers implicitly, esp. the ad spend. Having to justify your department's continued existence via KPIs that need to exponentially increase year over year means bloated numbers are a good thing. They can just blame sales for never closing…
There's the old story about Charles Babbage and his not understanding how you can feed garbage to a computer and people will believe the output, but in a sense it goes deeper than that; put a number in front of someone and I think a good 75% of the population at least will simply believe it. Not only believe it, but if someone comes along 15 seconds later with a different number, they'll argue with the new guy, even…
Re: Bots are getting good at mimicking engagement
#167Earlier quoted context omitted.
Does it really matter if it's all fraud? You track 47 sales over some period. What was the ad spend for that period? Combine that with previous data and that should be enough to figure out if it was a successful campaign or not. When a company puts up a billboard or an ad on the bus, they don't care if the ad is seen by dashcams and dogs. All that matters is impact on the bottom line.
If you could pay for web ads in the same way you could pay for a billboard (flat rate per period of time) yeah that would help. if you pay per impression or view or click you have some other issues
Re: Bots are getting good at mimicking engagement
#168Nothing new here, nothing surprising. Wayyyy back in 2000 I ran ad ops for Lycos which included a ton of other sites that they had acquired. We did an audit that uncovered the fact that 25-75% of traffic/pageviews/visitors/ad impressions were due to bots. We did our best at the moment to block some more of them, but it was losing game then, as now. Advertising, especially online advertising, is a largely a waste of m…
Advertisement has always been largely a waste of money, the problem is always trying to figure out what part is a waste and what part is effective. Internet advertising promised to be more specifically targeted and attributable than previous advertising models, but I don't think that really turned out well.
As an advertiser, you really have to work hard to know how things are working. Ask customers to tell you how they found you, but know that customers don't always know and don't always share what they know. Adjust advertising campaigns (including turning them off) and see how things change, but changes take a while to filter though. And you've got to do all the other things too --- a lot of new or smaller companies make the mistake of spending a lot on advertisements to drive traffic to them when they can't service the traffic: coupon campaigns that get too many people in, or sending you to a page that's unclear or difficult to use so people bail out, etc.
The article claims 50k visitors, 47 sales, $4000 in ad spend; it's not really clear if that's overall visitor numbers or just from the traffic attributed to advertising. Measuring success by visitor numbers or sales counts was never the right way to measure success; the numeric measure of success for a business should be an accounting measure of net income [1], which is only somewhat related to visitor and sales count. If this business generates $500 of net income for every sale (excluding advertising costs), then $4000 in ad spend to generate 47 sales seems reasonable; if they generate $1 of net income for every sale, then $4000 in ad spend is highly problematic.
[1] GAAP or adjusted as appropriate to the business
Re: Bots are getting good at mimicking engagement
#169Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Does it really matter if it's all fraud Uh, yes. If you get 47 sales on $10k in ad spend (pay per click) and $9900 of that $10k was fraudulent then you got 47 sales on $100 of ad spend. Imagine if you could stop those fraudulent clicks.
And imagine how much more you’d have to pay for each of those clicks if everyone could stop those fraudulent clicks. In equilibrium it shouldn’t change the total ad spend.
The online ad market is extremely inefficient because it has no idea how much ad spend is even reaching people.
Re: Bots are getting good at mimicking engagement
#170I recently ran $851 of ads on Reddit and the results were crap. Mean engaged time per active user of 8 seconds (mean - not median!). I makes me wonder if it wasn't mostly bots. If so, who was running the bots? https://successfulsoftware.net/2025/08/11/what-i-learned-spe...
I mean it could just be people scraping everything, and as reddit has made that more difficult the scrapers may look more realistic. That or dark patters that get people to click on ads in the middle of content, where the user instantly backs out once they realize.
I'm sure that is at least part of it. And if they can be creative about how they get the page to draw, they can get you to click on something unintentionally. The shitty website of my local paper is good at this.