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One to two Starlink satellites are falling back to Earth each day

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Re: One to two Starlink satellites are falling back to Earth each day

#161
post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Whoops, a standard off by a factor of 100 error. StarLink got 2 million new subscribers in 2024. Meanwhile the internet got 200 million new users. So even if every new StarLink subscriber would be a new internet user (which is obviously not true) they would still only account for 1% of new internet users. The real number is off course much much much lower.

This is definitely a small number. But I don't think it tells the whole story. Not every n+1 is the same. New satellite hookups in rural places, especially poor rural areas, combat zones, emergency situations etc. are more impactful than a new wired hookup in a city where there's already wifi in the library, for example.

You made the statement:

> It's interesting how if it's anti-elon, it's ok to complain about how the poor are causing the privileged some difficulties.

Now it is up to you to show that this has outsized influence on impoverished communities.

According to ITU[1] the number one factor for lack of internet access is economical. The price of internet access can be reduced with traditional infrastructure, but governments are often unable or unwilling to invest in the infrastructure needed to bring faster and cheaper internet connectivity to underserved areas. StarLink should in theory fit perfectly here, but in reality very few people from underserved communities, especially in impoverished areas, can afford StarLink, and keep being underserved. What makes this even worse is that in the rich countries (like the USA and Australia) underserved communities that had been promised infrastructure to bring the broadband internet are facing delays and cancellations because politicians believe the community can get StarLink instead (when in fact they cannot afford it). This is known as the Uber effect (from when politicians used Uber as an excuse to cancel public transit projects).

1: https://www.itu.int/itu-d/reports/statistics/2024/11/10/ff24...

Re: One to two Starlink satellites are falling back to Earth each day

#162
post #130

This article has a somewhat alarmist tone, but isn't this just Starlink working as intended? It seems much better for an old non-functional Starlink satellite to burn up in the atmosphere instead of continuing in an uncontrolled orbit. I believe most burn-ups are controlled intentional deorbits.

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Re: One to two Starlink satellites are falling back to Earth each day

#163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> "But why are you only assuming a usage time of 3 years?" Your entire analysis rests on this point, which you fail to demonstrate. (You also cite zero sources, which isn't encouraging.) (EDIT: This assumption is conservative, but reasonable.) Was this AI generated? > The cable itself costs virtually nothing Did you attempt to look up the cost of laying new fibre trunk? > due to their Satellites now being massively o…

> Was this AI generated? It's crazy to me that people use AI to generate comments for social sites of all things, but here we are.

I find it even more crazy that you no longer can comment on HN without someone trying to invalidate valid points by claiming you not being human. :)

To be honest, while I took it lightly, others might feel pretty insulted by such claims. De-humanizing someone stinks.

Re: One to two Starlink satellites are falling back to Earth each day

#164

> Soon, McDowell told us, there will be up to 5 satellite reentries per day Starlink’s next-generation V3s, which will require Starship to launch, weigh in around 2 metric tonnes [1]. (They’re currently “around 260 and 310 kilograms” [2].) “Every day, Earth is bombarded with more than 100 tons [91 metric tons] of dust and sand-sized particles” [3]. So we’re talking about a 2 to 10% increase in burn-up by mass. (Not a…

> (They’re currently “around 260 and 310 kilograms” [2].) v1.5 is like 300kg, the v2.0 mini (ironic as its far from mini compared to its predecessors) are 800kg. The V3's are the one's that need StarShip to deploy. But the current launch platform can take 21x v2.0 Mini's per launch vs the 60x v1.5's they did before. Taking in account that the v2.0 Mini's are way more capably on a kg/capacity. And the tech keeps getti…

> "SpaceX does not really need Starship, that is more or less a bonus at this point."

Starship is the moat SpaceX needs to be developing today to stay ahead of where the Chinese competition will be in 5-10 years.

Re: One to two Starlink satellites are falling back to Earth each day

#165
post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I hear 10% increase on a global constant and that doesn't sound like peanuts. If we increase 10% each few years that might be a problem? I don't know anything about whatever field studies this but given that LEO constellations born yesterday even that 2% increase in stuff coming from the skyes sounds significant to me.

edit: okay I misunderstood what everyone meant

I don't see anyone worrying about planetary mass. I'd be more concerned about atmospheric effects.

Re: One to two Starlink satellites are falling back to Earth each day

#166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sorry, I was referring to the general stock market (mostly AI) bubble. As for SpaceX, it's pretty much impossible to know their finances - they don't publish audited accounts. We can just trust what Elon is willing to share with us.

> for SpaceX, it's pretty much impossible to know their finances - they don't publish audited accounts SpaceX has audited financials. They're not published, but they leak a lot.

Yes, and Elon companies are well known for leaking reliable information.

Re: One to two Starlink satellites are falling back to Earth each day

#167
post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> threshold we are speaking of cannot allow any fragments, because they start chain reaction and destroy more satellites Kessler cascades are localised to specific orbits. In low-earth orbit, they're a problem for a few years. They're going to be annoying. But not catastrophic. > there is always one which is on the highest level Highest level?

> Kessler cascades are localised to specific orbits. In low-earth orbit, they're a problem for a few years. > They're going to be annoying. But not catastrophic. I think there is a misunderstanding about the whole term. If it is not a big problem, then it does not meet the definition. So there must be some threshold where they aren't problem. What is that threshold? Because certainly there isn't space for infinite am…

> If it is not a big problem, then it does not meet the definition.

It's still a big problem to wipe out low orbit, but it's not a long lasting one.

> What is that threshold? Because certainly there isn't space for infinite amount of objects.

Even if you crash a billion objects together at 300km, they're all going to go away in a few years. There is no threshold for semi-permanently ruining low orbit.

Re: One to two Starlink satellites are falling back to Earth each day

#168
post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's less about percentage. Economic opportunity is largely shifting towards not only having internet access, but performant internet access. Costs will come down. There will be alternatives. But they might have taken much longer to come to market without something like this. I'm not a fanboy, but there's obviously a lot of people who have worked hard to make Starlink a reality.

Traditional infrastructure is a proven method of bringing both the availability to uderserved areas, as well as bringing the costs down for those already served. StarLink provides a great oportunity for politicians to delay or cancel projects which would otherwise have given broadband connection to underserved areas. In urban planning this is known as the Uber effect.

Take this argument to it's conclusion. Take any point in history and freeze infrastructure. The only option we give ourselves is building more of that same type and maintaining it? So, more riders and more horses to carry messages, but no telegraph? Or maybe more accurately, keeping the medium the same, never using planes or trucks to deliver mail?

Re: One to two Starlink satellites are falling back to Earth each day

#169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know the specifics of starlink satellites but a rupture of any pressurized line has a chance of causing an unintended ascent. Thankfully in most cases the satellite is stabilized, so there is a good chance the satellite just gets a huge amount of rotational velocity added to it with no increase in altitude.

Whatever you do to launch an object higher, it will return to its original altitude once per orbit. If you want to stay high you first have to boost up and then you have to boost again half an hour later, which will happen just about never with debris.

You'd still have an eccentric orbit intersecting some "higher" ones periodically, no?

Certainly less dangerous than something "going the wrong way" in a given orbital shell, but not sure if it's completely negligible either.

Re: One to two Starlink satellites are falling back to Earth each day

#170
post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I hear 10% increase on a global constant and that doesn't sound like peanuts. If we increase 10% each few years that might be a problem? I don't know anything about whatever field studies this but given that LEO constellations born yesterday even that 2% increase in stuff coming from the skyes sounds significant to me.

edit: okay I misunderstood what everyone meant

Is that what you say when you litter? "I don't see a problem with plastic in the ocean, it came from the Earth in the first place".
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