Circular Financing: Does Nvidia's $110B Bet Echo the Telecom Bubble? • Hacker News Board

Re: Circular Financing: Does Nvidia's $110B Bet Echo the Telecom Bubble?

#161

Post by nickdothutton » Sat, Oct 04, 2025, 5:31 PM UTC

I was there in the middle of the dotcom crash and the telecoms crash which was much worse. Fiber does not rust, and while there was vast overcapacity, not all of it was lit, or indeed worth lighting. 10 years after, thanks to DWDM there were 8 strand cables where only 2 strands were lit, albeit with many more wavelengths than envisaged before. Even though demand had grown.

How much is a 10 year old GPU worth? Where is the “dwdm but for GPUs?”.

There truly are interesting times and we have the benefit of being in them.

Re: Circular Financing: Does Nvidia's $110B Bet Echo the Telecom Bubble?

#162

Post by gruez » Sat, Oct 04, 2025, 5:33 PM UTC

ooterness wrote: post #151

gruez wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>With Bezos openly stating the goal to build 10 GW+ data-centers in space, it almost feels in question whether this is about ROI, or simply building the Neuromancer future where the ultra-rich can finally be free of their need for the rest of us. Not needing labor at all would be the final return on investment. Why does "Not needing labor at all" need to be in space?

It's so the billions of disgruntled former workers can't storm the castle.

Still doesn't make sense. The PLA (largest army in the world) can't even capture Taiwan. If they wanted an impenetrable fortress a random island is all they need.

Re: Circular Financing: Does Nvidia's $110B Bet Echo the Telecom Bubble?

#163

Post by Fuzzwah » Sat, Oct 04, 2025, 5:38 PM UTC

Mistletoe wrote: post #72

Workaccount2 wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Meanwhile LLM fatigue has started to set in Has it? I think there is this compulsion to think that LLMs are made for senior devs, and if devs are getting wary of LLMs, the experiment is over. I'm not a programmer, my day job isn't tech, and the only people I know who express discontent with LLMs are a few of programmer friends I have. Which I get, but everyone else is using them gleefully for all manner of stuff. An…

You should get on Reddit, people hate AI with a passion there. People I meet in real life hate it also. I think the public actually hates AI more than it should now.

The view I have is that people hate having AI slop spewed at them, but will find value in asking an LLM about things they're interested in / help with things.

Re: Circular Financing: Does Nvidia's $110B Bet Echo the Telecom Bubble?

#164

Post by dehrmann » Sat, Oct 04, 2025, 5:46 PM UTC

> Evidence from Google architects shows GPUs at 60-70% utilization survive 1-2 years , with 3 years maximum.

Really?! I'm not used to chips having such a short lifespan.

Re: Circular Financing: Does Nvidia's $110B Bet Echo the Telecom Bubble?

#165

Post by metadat » Sat, Oct 04, 2025, 5:47 PM UTC

dehrmann wrote: post #164

> Evidence from Google architects shows GPUs at 60-70% utilization survive 1-2 years , with 3 years maximum. Really?! I'm not used to chips having such a short lifespan.

This sounds like major FUD unless the data is public.

Re: Circular Financing: Does Nvidia's $110B Bet Echo the Telecom Bubble?

#166

Post by bigyabai » Sat, Oct 04, 2025, 5:50 PM UTC

metadat wrote: post #165

dehrmann wrote: post #164

> Evidence from Google architects shows GPUs at 60-70% utilization survive 1-2 years , with 3 years maximum. Really?! I'm not used to chips having such a short lifespan.

This sounds like major FUD unless the data is public.

Feels like a teensy tiny conflict of interest, coming from GCP.

Additionally - GPUs have multiple components. Which parts are at 60-70% load, the SM unit or the memory controller? If you're throttling the GPU but not the memory, it makes perfect sense why you're burning the damn card out...

Re: Circular Financing: Does Nvidia's $110B Bet Echo the Telecom Bubble?

#167

Post by Mo3 » Sat, Oct 04, 2025, 5:53 PM UTC

idiotsecant wrote: post #86

Mo3 wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I doubt we will see unused GPU capacity I'd argue we very certainly will. Companies are gobbling up GPUs like there's no tomorrow, assuming demand will remain stable and continue growing indefinitely. Meanwhile LLM fatigue has started to set in, models are getting smaller and smaller and consumer hardware is getting better and better. There's no way this won't end up with a lot of idle GPUs.

Your bet is that people will simply use less compute , for the first time in the history of the human race?

No, mostly less external compute

Re: Circular Financing: Does Nvidia's $110B Bet Echo the Telecom Bubble?

#168

Post by cameldrv » Sat, Oct 04, 2025, 5:54 PM UTC

There was a similar circular effect in the dot com boom around ads. VCs poured money into startups, which put the money into ads on Yahoo and other properties. Yahoo was getting huge revenue from the ads, which pumped up the stock price. The rising price and revenue, and hence stock price of Yahoo pumped up the market for other dot coms, as it proved you could make money on the Internet, so the market for dot com IPOs was strong. That drew more VC money. More VC money meant more ads.

Re: Circular Financing: Does Nvidia's $110B Bet Echo the Telecom Bubble?

#169

Post by twoodfin » Sat, Oct 04, 2025, 6:01 PM UTC

mooreds wrote: post #154

echelon wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Capitalism only works if there is lots of competition. Monopolies gum up the system, reward the institutional capital rather than innovation capital, and prevent new entrants from de-ossifying and being the renewing forest fire. We've been so lax on antitrust. Google, Apple, Meta, Amazon - they all need to be broken up. Our economy and our profession would be better for it. Innovation should be a treadmill. YC and a1…

I don't agree with everything in this book, Goliath,[0] but his main argument was that business monopoly and democracy are in direct opposition. And that since the 1970s we've chosen to enable monopoly again and again. 0: https://www.amazon.com/Goliath-100-Year-Between-Monopoly-Dem...

How does Stoller explain why since the 1970’s there’s been massive turnover whether you look at the largest 10 companies, the largest 100, or the largest 1,000?

Re: Circular Financing: Does Nvidia's $110B Bet Echo the Telecom Bubble?

#170

Post by sails » Sat, Oct 04, 2025, 6:05 PM UTC

> Nvidia’s vendor financing becomes exposure to customers building competitive alternatives.

This is surely the most important line in the piece? In what world would this much demand not lead to alternatives emerging?

(Assuming the upside, yes if the demand is not there in two years then yes it’s all going to burn)