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Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

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161–170 of 668 posts

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> what are billions of people doing on Facebook if it's harmful? I don't know. This is extremely naive and akin to asking "why do people drink if it’s bad for you then??" Popular != healthy

Tbh, it's not clear that if we all stopped drinking the world would be better.

Yeah, and maybe it would be better still if we all tried heroin!

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#162
post #97

The big question is what "society" he is talking about? Is it the "society" that includes all people, or the "society" that includes only rich people?

I don't understand this argument. Speaking as a kid who grew up middle-class as an 80's teen obsessed with (the then still new) computers, a non-rich person has access to more salient power today than ever in history, and largely for no or low cost. There are free AI's available that can diagnose illnesses for people in remote areas, non-Western nations, etc. and which can translate (and/or summarize) anything to anything with high quality. Etc. etc. AI will help anyone with an idea execute on it.

The only thing you have to worry about are not non-rich people, but people without any motivation. The difference of course is that the framing you're using makes it easy to blame "The System", while a motivation-based framing at least leaves people somewhat responsible.

Wealth may get you a seat closer to the table, but everyone is already invited into the room.

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#163
post #64

I'm paying for 3 different AI services and our company and most of my team is also paying money for various AI stuff. Sounds like a real industry to me. There's just going to be VC losers as always, where usually "losing" is getting bought by a bigger company or aquihires instead of 100xing or going public.

Those companies are also likely still in the red. They're banking on the hope that one day they will be profitable. I'm sure one of them will be.

HN said the same thing about Uber forever.

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#164
post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, Sam Altman’s recent one saying that his LLMs would “cure cancer” if they built enough data centres was also a winner.

i have to say I'm a little disgusted by these statements. LLMs are useful for many problems, but is there really a conceivable path of them making progress into fighting the countless cancers tormenting humanity?

My framing device: if you had LLMs in the 1500s, how would that help Copernicus determine the orbits of the planets? Maybe through dumb chance, but creating a well reasoned model of the universe required new observations and the ability to interpret the data from a different point of view.

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#165
post #97

The big question is what "society" he is talking about? Is it the "society" that includes all people, or the "society" that includes only rich people?

It will benefit all people but it will disproportionally benefit more rich people.

And we're not talking a 51-49 disproportion, we're talking about a 99.9999 percent of the benefit will go to the richest people

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#166

Do I have this right that there have been no or at least very few pure AI IPO's during this cycle (I can't actually think of a single one)? So it's dissimilar to dotcom in that regard because during that time countless dotcoms went public with sky-high valuations and then failed. A bunch of reputable companies also went or were already public during that time and those saw huge valuation drops so that's more analogou…

IPOs aren't what they once were. The burden of being a public company has increased (SOX and related public company costs are $5-10M/year), so companies are far more likely to stay private. That has created a positive feedback cycle as the private funding ecosystem has become increasingly robust, which is why you see so many $100B+ private companies. Also keep in mind that the biggest companies during that bubble had…

The costs are a weak argument. The more stronger argument for why they arent going public any time soon is that OAI in particular is a corporate governance nightmare, in which the way they transmit information about their firm and financials will have to completely change.

Theres also plenty of money washing around in private markets so no need to go public. Staying private is an advantage.

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bezos is a 0.0001-percenter. Most of people on HN are probably in the top 1% to 5%. You're in the top 10% in the US if you make $170k/yr.

are most people on HN making 170? I feel a bit less privileged now.

Entry-level total comp for SWEs in the SF Bay Area is probably $250k. A senior dev at a public tech company can easily clear $400k. Really senior engineers at FAANG routinely clear $1M.

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It will benefit all people but it will disproportionally benefit more rich people.

And we're not talking a 51-49 disproportion, we're talking about a 99.9999 percent of the benefit will go to the richest people

How so?

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#169
post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Those companies are also likely still in the red. They're banking on the hope that one day they will be profitable. I'm sure one of them will be.

HN said the same thing about Uber forever.

Uber didn't invent anything, they drove taxis out of business then jacked up the prices, squeezed the workers, and now everybody is riding around in regular people's crappy cars for more than a cab cost. And now I need a phone and to maintain my relationship with these two crappy companies rather than to wave at the street (which is what I used to do to get a ride.)

That was literally what everybody said would happen.

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#170
post #111
post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Personally I never tougth of Google as a dotcom era company. Most of those were landing pages with news and chat rooms. It was more of web 2.0 company.

It was founded 1998, very much dotcom era, and had no significant web 2.0 products for years after that.

Gmail and Google Maps were prototypical 2.0.
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