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Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

wsj.com

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Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#161

Post by JumpCrisscross »

tombert wrote: post #136
WalterBright wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Thats no theory, thats life. It's inflation, which is caused by deficit spending. The US didn't have inflation before 1914.

That is measurably untrue and it took me about ten seconds of searching to find it. https://www.billmeridian.com/articles-files/inflation.htm and many others. Historically I know you tend to argue pretty dishonestly but this was pretty easy to find and so either you're lying or didn't bother doing any research past reading Ayn Rand. Also, prices spiking up from incompetent threats of tariffs and not coming down are c…

We’ve also been running deficits since the birth of our nation [1]. Perpetual deficits are a post-WWII thing, not post-Fed.

[1] https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/021115/how-long-has...

Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#162

Post by tombert »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #161
tombert wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is measurably untrue and it took me about ten seconds of searching to find it. https://www.billmeridian.com/articles-files/inflation.htm and many others. Historically I know you tend to argue pretty dishonestly but this was pretty easy to find and so either you're lying or didn't bother doing any research past reading Ayn Rand. Also, prices spiking up from incompetent threats of tariffs and not coming down are c…

We’ve also been running deficits since the birth of our nation [1]. Perpetual deficits are a post-WWII thing, not post-Fed. [1] https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/021115/how-long-has...

Yeah but that doesn't align at all with the "1914 Federal Reserve is Evil Boogeyman".

A lot of libertarian "bad guys" tend to be pretty reductive, or just outright lies.

Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#163

Post by decimalenough »

haunter wrote: post #97

In the end it's the biggest leopard ate my face moment ever: China has very high growth momentum that surpasses American living standards soon, and not long before it will surpass American security standards too. China's purchasing power is probably more comfortable than most western countries, with extensive housing and high speed rail and electric cars etc. When a country becomes rich, inevitably other countries as…

The craziest thing about all this is that Chinese exports to the US aren't even that big a part of the Chinese economy (3% or so). Sure, it'll hurt and there's multiplier effects, but the entire rest of the world is more than happy to take up the slack. So the tariffs really are the US cutting its own nose off to spite its face.

Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#164

Post by tomhow »

alephnerd wrote: post #70
sirnonw wrote: post #12

Funny how there is a post-it with a password glued to the screen of the computer in the lede image, now in plain sight for thousands of readers.

@Dang can you please delete this comment OP might not be wrong, but let's at least follow SOP for disclosing security failures (30 days pre-disclosure)

We don't delete things unless the poster asks us to, and really I doubt this comment is creating any more risk than the picture itself on the WSJ.

Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#165

Post by haunter »

estimator7292 wrote: post #154
haunter wrote: post #97

In the end it's the biggest leopard ate my face moment ever: China has very high growth momentum that surpasses American living standards soon, and not long before it will surpass American security standards too. China's purchasing power is probably more comfortable than most western countries, with extensive housing and high speed rail and electric cars etc. When a country becomes rich, inevitably other countries as…

[flagged]

You are putting words in my mouth I didn’t say. I was just using a realpolitik theory of the tariffs nothing more.

Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#166

Post by refurb »

haunter wrote: post #97

In the end it's the biggest leopard ate my face moment ever: China has very high growth momentum that surpasses American living standards soon, and not long before it will surpass American security standards too. China's purchasing power is probably more comfortable than most western countries, with extensive housing and high speed rail and electric cars etc. When a country becomes rich, inevitably other countries as…

It’s statements like these that remind me to not take social media so seriously.

China does not have “very high grow momentum”, in fact growth has been seriously slowing since Covid

I’m not sure sure what “growth momentum” is what it has to do with living standards.

China’s PPP is not more comfortable than the US because it’s still 1/4th that of the US.

China has very serious growth problems, a massive debt overhang from real estate (that is still slowing the economy), a supply planning model that is leaving it with an oversupply of things like cars and batteries.

Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#167

Post by collingreen »

trasirinc wrote: post #149
jennyholzer wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why are you so well-versed in these anti-Chinese narratives? Your message reads like you're a victim of anti-Chinese propaganda.

I'm from China. I know what real numbers and news come out of China.

I'm from the US. I have no idea what numbers or news are real anymore (if I ever did). I'm impressed by either your ability to discern this for China or by your confidence that you can.

Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#168

Post by refurb »

decimalenough wrote: post #163
haunter wrote: post #97

In the end it's the biggest leopard ate my face moment ever: China has very high growth momentum that surpasses American living standards soon, and not long before it will surpass American security standards too. China's purchasing power is probably more comfortable than most western countries, with extensive housing and high speed rail and electric cars etc. When a country becomes rich, inevitably other countries as…

The craziest thing about all this is that Chinese exports to the US aren't even that big a part of the Chinese economy (3% or so). Sure, it'll hurt and there's multiplier effects, but the entire rest of the world is more than happy to take up the slack. So the tariffs really are the US cutting its own nose off to spite its face.

What do you mean “the rest of the world will take up the slack”?

Is the rest of the world suddenly going to start buying something they haven’t in the past? Why?

And the US consumer market is 2x the size of the next biggest (EU).

How exactly is the the rest of the world going to replace the demand of something several times its size?

Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#169

Post by refurb »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #155
trasirinc wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What numbers are you seeing for the surpassing living standards? Their gpd per capita flatlined in 2024 at $13k. That's with only 80M of their citizens making above $2000/month. The bulk of their citizens make less than $100/month, and there's a declining middle class of around 200M that makes around $800/month. But they have high youth unemployment rate (>40%), there's a massive layoff wave coming in September with…

> GDP per capital with PPP China’s ‘25 GDP per capita on a purchasing-power parity basis is $29k to America’s $90k [1]. American real GDP per capita grew at 1.7% a year from 2015 to 2025 [2]. (American PPP GDP/c grew 4.5% a year from 2014 to 2024 [3].) From 2004 to 2024, Chinese PPP GDP/c grew 7.4% a year [4]. If China and America keep growing at their respective rates, we wouldn’t expect convergence for 20+ (40, usi…

American real GDP per capita grew at 1.7% a year from 2015 to 2025 [2]

From 2004 to 2024, Chinese PPP GDP/c grew 7.4% a year [4].

What an incredibly dishonest comparison!

Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#170

Post by vkou »

YZF wrote: post #108
macintux wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m curious whether it’s more the tariffs, or the uncertainty. No one knows what will happen on a day-to-day basis: the chaotic (and illegal) decision-making leaves everyone wondering what’s next.

The hiring slowdown predates tariffs. For various reasons CEOs either believe they can do more with less people, or that they can hire cheaper people in other geographies, or both. Businesses (tech or financials) don't seem to be telegraphing uncertainty, S&P 500 revenue is at all times high and trending up, earnings/profit all time highs and trending up, valuations all times high and trending up.

> The hiring slowdown predates tariffs.

That's true, but it didn't predate the election of a man who has made his understanding of tariffs and economics crystal clear in the months and years leading up to January 2025.

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