Earlier quoted context omitted.
It is foolish to compare to the dot com boom and bust. At least when that bubble burst we still had the global broadband internet that it built. When this bubble bursts, we'll have next to nothing to show for it.
Nothing except massive data centers full of GPU compute resources paid for by VC money. Wait, that's actually pretty similar...
Cognition (Devin AI) to Acquire Windsurf
161–170 of 447 posts
Re: Cognition (Devin AI) to Acquire Windsurf
#162I think the amount of turmoil around these deals is giving more weight to the possibility that we’re in a massive bubble thats quite divorced from any kind of fundamentals. Sooner or later the bubbles gonna burst.
Re: Cognition (Devin AI) to Acquire Windsurf
#163I’m really confused now. Also, is there really that much of a transformative difference between Windsurf and say OpenAI/Claude etc to warrant this crazy valuations?
I'm also confused why Devin is worth billions
Re: Cognition (Devin AI) to Acquire Windsurf
#164I think the amount of turmoil around these deals is giving more weight to the possibility that we’re in a massive bubble thats quite divorced from any kind of fundamentals. Sooner or later the bubbles gonna burst.
A lot of VCs and PEs lost a lot of money during the crash. This means a lot of capital was spent in the economy, generating a lot of good activity, and the companies that failed then also put a lot more capital back into the economy through bankruptcies. Other businesses can pick up talent, IP, and assets for cheap, and everyone can learn from the failures. While losing that money isn't great for VCs, what they got was a very valuable education to be better stewards of their investments, and pick better companies. The next rounds of companies have to hit metrics, milestones, have to prove their value, etc.
Never waste a perfectly good crisis: learn if nothing else.
Re: Cognition (Devin AI) to Acquire Windsurf
#165Earlier quoted context omitted.
The dot-com was a bubble because investors pulled money and belief at the first sign of trouble. The landscape has changed dramatically now. Investors and VCs have learnt if we stick with winners and growth companies, the payoffs are massive. We also have more automatic, retail and foreign money flowing into the market. Buy the dip is a phenomenon that didn't exist at the scale it is now. Pre-2015 if Big Money pulled…
It is foolish to compare to the dot com boom and bust. At least when that bubble burst we still had the global broadband internet that it built. When this bubble bursts, we'll have next to nothing to show for it.
Re: Cognition (Devin AI) to Acquire Windsurf
#166Earlier quoted context omitted.
Well Google did also just pay $2.5B to license Windsurf in perpetuity. Cognition is probably spending a lot less than that for just whatever it left after that type of a deal. Remaining team members, etc.
> Google did also just pay $2.5B to license Windsurf in perpetuity Could there have been a clause that made this invalid in case of acquisition?
Re: Cognition (Devin AI) to Acquire Windsurf
#167I think the amount of turmoil around these deals is giving more weight to the possibility that we’re in a massive bubble thats quite divorced from any kind of fundamentals. Sooner or later the bubbles gonna burst.
Anthropic ARR went $1B -> $4B in the first half of this year. They're getting my $200 a month and it's easily the best money I spend. There's definitely something there.
Re: Cognition (Devin AI) to Acquire Windsurf
#168I think the amount of turmoil around these deals is giving more weight to the possibility that we’re in a massive bubble thats quite divorced from any kind of fundamentals. Sooner or later the bubbles gonna burst.
Remember that the web also had a bubble that popped and look at where are we now with Google, Amazon, Meta... I think that there is a bubble but it's shaped more like the web bubble and less like the crypto bubble.
Regarding LLMs there are two concerns - current products don't have any killer feature to lock in customers, so people can easily jump ship. And diminishing returns, if there won't be a clear progress with models, then free/small, maybe even local models will fill most of people needs.
People are speculating that even OAI is burning more money than they make, it's hard to say what will happen if customer churn will increase. Like for example me - I never paid for LLMs specifically, and didn't use them in any major way, but I used free Claude for testing how it works, maybe incorporating in the workflow. I may transitioned to the paid tier in the future. But recently someone noted that Google cloud storage includes "free" Gemini Pro and I've switched to it, because why not, I'm already paying for the storage part. And there was nothing keeping me with Anthropic. Actually that name alone is revolting imo. I wrote this as an example that when monsters like Google or Microsoft or Apple would start bundling their solutions (and advertise them properly, unlike Google), then specialized companies including OAI will feel very very bad, with their insane expenses and investments.
Re: Cognition (Devin AI) to Acquire Windsurf
#169I was a bit confused as to what "Cognition" was, but they're the makers of Devin (edit: that just got added to the title, for reference), so that makes sense. Just buying the competition, the only surprise is they had more money to spend than the big ones.
Well Google did also just pay $2.5B to license Windsurf in perpetuity. Cognition is probably spending a lot less than that for just whatever it left after that type of a deal. Remaining team members, etc.
Re: Cognition (Devin AI) to Acquire Windsurf
#170What does this actually mean for the product? Huge fan of the plugin on Jetbrains products...