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My AI skeptic friends are all nuts

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Re: My AI skeptic friends are all nuts

#161
This op ed suggests that it’s easier to audit a huge amount of code before merging it in than is to write the code from scratch. I don’t know about anyone else, but I generally find it easier to write exactly what I want than to mentally model what a huge volume of code I’ve never seen before will do?

(Especially if that code was spit out by an alien copypasta that is really good at sounding plausible with zero actual intelligence or intent?)

Like, if all I care about is: does it have enough unit tests and do they pass, then yeah I can audit that.

But if I was trying to solve truly novel problems like modeling proteins, optimizing travel routes, or new computer rendering techniques, I wouldn’t even know where to begin, it would take tons of arduous study to understand how the new project full of novel algorithms is going behave?

Re: My AI skeptic friends are all nuts

#162

Can we get a video of a workday conducted by these people? Unless there's a significant sense of what people are working on, and how LLMs are helping -- there's no point engaging -- there's no detail here. Sure, if your job is to turn out tweaks to a wordpress theme, presumably that's now 10x faster. If its to work on a new in-house electric motor in C for some machine, presumably that's almost entirely unaffected. N…

I have done everything from architecture design for a DSP (Qualcomm), to training models that render photos on Pixel phones, to redoing Instagrams comments ranking system. I can't imaging doing anything without LLMs today, they would have made me much more productive at all of those things, whether it be Verilog, C++, python, ML, etc. I use them constantly now.

Re: My AI skeptic friends are all nuts

#163

The argument seems to be that for an expert programmer, who is capable of reading and understanding AI agent code output and merging it into a codebase, AI agents are great. Question: If everyone uses AI to code, how does someone become an expert capable of carefully reading and understanding code and acting as an editor to an AI? The expert skills needed to be an editor -- reading code, understanding its implication…

> So where will the experts come from?

They won't, save for a relative minority of those who enjoy doing things the hard way or those who see an emerging market they can capitalize on (slop scrubbers).

I wrote this post [1] last month to share my concerns about this exact problem. It's not that using AI is bad necessarily (I do every day), but it disincentivizes real learning and competency. And once using AI is normalized to the point where true learning (not just outcome seeking) becomes optional, all hell will break loose.

> Perhaps there is another way to develop the skills

Like sticking a fork in a light socket, the only way to truly learn is to try it and see what happens.

[1] https://ryanglover.net/blog/chauffeur-knowledge-and-the-impe...

Re: My AI skeptic friends are all nuts

#164
post #3

Machine translation and speech recognition. The state of the art for these is a multi-modal language model. I'm hearing impaired veering on deaf, and I use this technology all day every day. I wanted to watch an old TV series from the 1980s. There are no subtitles available. So I fed the show into a language model (Whisper) and now I have passable subtitles that allow me to watch the show. Am I the only one who remem…

What is the relevance of this comment? The post is about LLMs in programming. Not about translation or NLP, two things transformers do quite well and that hardly anyone contests.

Re: My AI skeptic friends are all nuts

#165
post #3

Machine translation and speech recognition. The state of the art for these is a multi-modal language model. I'm hearing impaired veering on deaf, and I use this technology all day every day. I wanted to watch an old TV series from the 1980s. There are no subtitles available. So I fed the show into a language model (Whisper) and now I have passable subtitles that allow me to watch the show. Am I the only one who remem…

Definitely not. I took this same basic idea of feeding videos into Whisper to get SRT subtitles and took it a step further to make automatic Anki flashcards for listening practice in foreign languages [1]. I literally feel like I'm living in the future every time I run across one of those cards from whatever silly Finnish video I found on YouTube pops up in my queue.

These models have made it possible to robustly practice all 4 quadrants of language learning for most common languages using nothing but a computer, not just passive reading. Whisper is directly responsible for 2 of those quadrants, listening and speaking. LLMs are responsible for writing [2]. We absolutely live in the future.

[1]: https://github.com/hiandrewquinn/audio2anki

[2]: https://hiandrewquinn.github.io/til-site/posts/llm-tutored-w...

Re: My AI skeptic friends are all nuts

#166
> Some of the smartest people I know share a bone-deep belief that AI is a fad — the next iteration of NFT mania

It's not that it's a fad. It's that the hype has gotten way ahead of the capability. CEOs laying off double digit percentages of their workforce because they believe that in 6 months AI will actually be able to do all those jobs and they want to get the message out to Wall St to juice the stock price today.

Re: My AI skeptic friends are all nuts

#167
post #7

I feel like we get one of these articles that addresses valid AI criticisms with poor arguments every week and at this point I’m ready to write a boilerplate response because I already know what they’re going to say. Interns don’t cost 20 bucks a month but training users in the specifics of your org is important. Knowing what is important or pointless comes with understanding the skill set.

What valid AI criticisms? Most criticisms of AI are not very deep nor founded in complexity theoretic arguments, whereas Yann LeCun himself gave an excellent 1 slide explanation of the limits of LLMs. Most AI criticisms are low quality arguments.

Re: My AI skeptic friends are all nuts

#168
this is one of those fascinating cases where i agree with none of the arguments, but vehemently agree with the conclusion… it ordinarily would give me pause, but in this case i am reminded that nonsense arguments are equally applicable to both sides of the debate. if the arguments actually had logical connection to the conclusion, and i disliked the arguments but liked the conclusion, that would be real cause for introspection.

Re: My AI skeptic friends are all nuts

#169
I’d love to see the authors of effusive praise of generative AI like this provide the proof of the unlimited powers of their tools in code. If GAI (or agents, or whatever comes next …) is so effective it should be quite simple to prove that by creating an AI only company and in short order producing huge amounts of serviceable code to do useful things. So far I’ve seen no sign of this, and the best use case seems to be generating text or artwork which fools humans into thinking it has coherent meaning as our minds love to fill gaps and spot patterns even where there are none. It’s also pretty good at reproducing things it has seen with variations - that can be useful.

So far in my experience watching small to medium sized companies try to use it for real work, it has been occasionally useful for exploring apis, odd bits of knowledge etc, but overall wasted more time than it has saved. I see very few signs of progress.

The time has come for llm users to put up or shut up - if it’s so great, stop telling us and show and use the code it generated on its own.

Re: My AI skeptic friends are all nuts

#170

The argument seems to be that for an expert programmer, who is capable of reading and understanding AI agent code output and merging it into a codebase, AI agents are great. Question: If everyone uses AI to code, how does someone become an expert capable of carefully reading and understanding code and acting as an editor to an AI? The expert skills needed to be an editor -- reading code, understanding its implication…

This is such a non issue and so far down the list of questions. Weve invented AI that can code, and you're asking about career progression? Thats the the top thing to talk about? Weve given life to essentially an alien life form
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