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Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

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Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#161

Post by ryandrake »

teucris wrote: post #149
riehwvfbk wrote: post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We do, however, have computer assisted plumbers, electricians, and other technicians. With nothing more than YouTube one can fix appliances and cars, or do some DIY home improvement, and the projects that are possible are much more involved than they were in the old days. It's very hard to pick up these skills from a book, but if there's a video to walk through the process - the projects become possible. AI-assisted…

I have four books that I got from my dad - one for construction and repairs, one for electrical, one for plumbing, and one for landscaping. They’re in simple English with excellent illustrations. Using those books, I’ve been able to fix/improve pretty much everything in my house for ten years.

It's still a human doing it and not an AI or robot. All of these jobs are not uniform enough for a robot or AI to be able to handle everyone's uniquely built house.

Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#162

Post by scarface_74 »

OJFord wrote: post #155
scarface_74 wrote: post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why is “affording a house” the marker of a success? I would say just the opposite. Owning a home decreases mobility and the ability to move to where the jobs are. That being said, the home ownership rate in the US is 65% and almost anyone who wants to go to college can via loans and scholarships. Only around 40% of people in the US have a college education. But that doesn’t mean that the other 60% are homeless and st…

Ok, 'having that much money (or credit worthiness to borrow it) regardless of what you do with it', then? Many people don't want to be itinerant, they want a settled home to make their own and enjoy for a long time if not life. 'Forever home' is a phrase and a positive one because that is a goal people have.

And those same people who want their “forever home” and aren’t willing to move to where the jobs are unemployed and underemployed.

I want a million dollars a year income. No one owes me that. Move to where the jobs are. I moved from my hometown in south GA the week I graduated from college because there were no jobs.

Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#163

Post by tkjef »

somenameforme wrote: post #131
rqtwteye wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Technical progress would be fantastic if the benefits didn't go mainly to the top. I am pretty sure in the not too far future we will have enough technology that you can live off the land somewhere with the help of some robots. Or have them do all your housework. In principle, this is great, but our society is not set up for a lot of people not working while the technology is progressed by a relatively small number o…

There's a simple litmus test for these sort of nearish future dystopias - how long before you have an 'AI plumber' or an 'AI electrician'? I'm not just listing random skilled trades, but listing jobs that are extremely complex, 100% context sensitive in a way that just doesn't generalize well, requires a mixture of high dexterity and high strength, and a million other things. To say nothing of the numerous [oft extre…

agree with all your points with the anecdata that the Roomba is awesome for dog hair. awesome.

Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#164

Post by hollerith »

teucris wrote: post #147
hollerith wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Causal relationships can be hard to discern. Some say that FDR's policies extended the downturn to 10 years whereas recovery from previous downturns was much quicker. (Also, it is not clear to me how any of this is relevant to "The wealth gap growing, and the median person being better off aren't mutually exclusive".)

Can you provide references? This is the first I’ve ever heard of this.

For example, Murray Rothbard argued in America’s Great Depression (1963) that both Herbert Hoover and FDR worsened the economic downturn through interventionist policies. He believed FDR’s price and wage controls, massive public spending, and business regulations stifled economic recovery.

My point is not that the person I was replying to is definitely wrong about FDR's policies, but rather that the effects of FDR's policies are uncertain enough that the fact that FDR imposed them in the 1930s cannot credibly used to lend strong support to any argument for any economic policy to be imposed today. The post-WWII economic boom for example happened after most of FDR's policies had been repealed.

Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#165

Post by ozim »

techpineapple wrote: post #2

Does anyone else find techno-optimism really depressing? I guess one for the more common reason that it’s displacing humanity with technology, but the second reason is just you can’t get excited about a hype that is unlikely to manifest. It feels very ungrounded from tangible benefits to society.

In Europe we have less and less people. Automation is a must have because we will need those people in areas that cannot be automated.

Transformation will be painful as it is hard to re-train people or get people to do stuff that is not really their forte.

Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#166

Post by ryandrake »

ctoth wrote: post #154
rchaud wrote: post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm struggling to think of any technological advancement in the past 20 years that's saved me time. The only real change has been a shift to WFH, but that happened independently of technological change in that era. Even things like screen sharing and remote desktop were possible before that time. 25 years ago, sure: online shopping/banking, email and chat -- these are all things my Blackberry or Nokia could handle. T…

Tell me you never called for a taxi and waited two hours for it only not to show up without telling me. Uber has saved me a remarkable amount of time. More-generally: https://gwern.net/improvement

I have waited hours while Lyft driver after Lyft driver canceled and the algorithm kept picking new drivers.

Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#167

Post by adamnemecek »

techpineapple wrote: post #31
adamnemecek wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> unlikely to manifest Over what time period? 5 years? 100 years?

I think a lot of cool shit will happen in the next hundred years, but the “end of scarcity unlimited money/tech points hack” is unlikely to happen in the next 100 years. And this is the core of my argument, let’s talk more about the cool shit.

I can see it happening in the next 30 years.

Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#168

Post by dragontamer »

scarface_74 wrote: post #151
dragontamer wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The wealth gap growing, and the median person being better off aren't mutually exclusive. The wealth gap was growing since 1980. Is the median person better today when the median person cannot afford a college education or a house? Both of those were easily afforded in the 80s. Also remember: the average job didn't require a college education back then either. College has become a gatekeeper due to its rising costs…

Why is “affording a house” the marker of a success? I would say just the opposite. Owning a home decreases mobility and the ability to move to where the jobs are. That being said, the home ownership rate in the US is 65% and almost anyone who wants to go to college can via loans and scholarships. Only around 40% of people in the US have a college education. But that doesn’t mean that the other 60% are homeless and st…

That's a weird non-sequitur you did.

> But that doesn’t mean that the other 60% are homeless and starving.

No one said starving. I'm saying that the average person is in worse straights than the average person from the 1980s.

If your message is 'Maybe not everyone needs a house' then it kinda sounds like you agree with me?

Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#169

Post by tkjef »

elcritch wrote: post #106
nthingtohide wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Vertical farming / hydroponics will solve that.

See the neo-feudalism comment below. Land and even vertical farming will be controlled by nobility / corporates in the neo-feudalism era.

so what’s your solution then? you realize corporations are just run by people? but yes they become cold, heartless soul sucking places. yes.

make your own company and do something about it then. or STFU.

Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#170

Post by qudat »

techpineapple wrote: post #2

Does anyone else find techno-optimism really depressing? I guess one for the more common reason that it’s displacing humanity with technology, but the second reason is just you can’t get excited about a hype that is unlikely to manifest. It feels very ungrounded from tangible benefits to society.

Humans will always value human labor, creative destruction is foundational to economic growth and it has been happening since the discovery of fire.
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