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Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

ourworldindata.org

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Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#161

Post by aqme28 »

kaonwarb wrote: post #54
analog31 wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I get around on an acoustic bike, but have a lot of friends with e-bikes. I believe this is extremely locale-dependent. For instance there's relatively little bike theft in my locale, except around the university where it's just really easy pickings. I think you can learn a lot by looking at how bikes -- acoustic and electric -- are already being parked and locked in your district. For instance my daughter is attendi…

TIL "acoustic bike" is a phrase

I like “analog bike” but it doesn’t make any sense either

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#162

Post by Ekaros »

FirmwareBurner wrote: post #159
conductr wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s not so much of a problem due to the average daily drive being a fraction of range. So long as you can charge at home, city life is fine for electric cars.

>It’s not so much of a problem due to the average daily drive being a fraction of range Most people who own a car in cities in Europe also use it for long commutes to visit family in weekends or on holidays, often crossing borders. Range is then a problem since most families can afford only one car so edge cases matter. Maybe the wealthy Benelux and Scandinavia have top EV charring infrastructure but a lot of central…

It is the 1% or 10% case. Like for me going to bigger airport. Renting a car would be complete waste for it to sit a week there. And for range I would want something that can get me there in one go and back also in one go, with week of sitting idle. As adding extra 30 minutes to 1h travel time on top of all time it takes is less than ideal living. And public transport would add even more time or less flexibility those types of trips.

Also there is some possibility that there is no power at for example summer home...

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#163

Post by aqme28 »

_ea1k wrote: post #26
skeeter2020 wrote: post #7

If this graph is the evidence for "Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked" isn't it also the evidence proving "global car sales have peaked"?

I doubt total sales have peaked. Economic growth and population growth will likely keep that going up. But EVs are eating enough market share that combustion cars are likely never climbing past their peak again.

Not everyone drives. If population growth is mostly in places where people bike/ebike/walk/train, then your assumption doesn’t hold.

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#164

Post by ehnto »

edwcross wrote: post #134
conductr wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s not so much of a problem due to the average daily drive being a fraction of range. So long as you can charge at home, city life is fine for electric cars.

Most countries still do not mandate that new apartments include charging ports for parking spots. So densely-populated areas will still be plagued with non-EC compatible buildings for decades to come. That's what "city life" mean in several countries.

Cities shouldn't have to mandate carparks, let alone charging in them. Having no car at all should be viable and we should build toward that.

Pre-empting, obviously many places still require cars, but we shouldn't codify cars into the building code. It makes everything that bit more expensive, and it's a waste of valuable city real estate.

At the moment the cost per square meter in Melbourne and my city means a single carspace is worth more than my salary. That's ridiculous.

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#165

Post by Slava_Propanei »

idontwantthis wrote: post #30
xnx wrote: post #23

Even in cities that are pretty hostile to bikes, electric bikes/scooters are an amazing middle point between walking and all the expense of a car (purchase, loans, fuel, maintenance, insurance, registration, tickets, etc.).

I want an electric bike but I want to go places with it and I’m worried about it getting stolen when I lock it up outside a shop. Do you have one?

[dead]

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#166

Post by bArray »

I think that combustion engines will make a come back, and we're at a false peak. I believe that due to a poor economic outlook, we see more people purchasing from the used-car market than new vehicles. I personally have seen a recent boom in the UK for road-worthy vehicles under £5k. On the other hand, I have seen used EVs completely unsellable, to the point where forecourts refuse to accept them as part-exchange.

If you see the breakdown graph [1], the likes of Norway is about to peak at 100%. The UK, US and EU are already becoming saturated, and China have saturated their internal markets and now face export tariffs to other significant markets to prevent dumping. The largest driving forces for this trend are essentially saturated.

Just in the EU for example we see that energy prices continue to increase per kWh [2], further reducing the "low cost benefit" of electricity that EVs previously enjoyed. We also see governments beginning to realise that they miss out on vehicle tax for EVs due to incentives, and such benefits begin to be withheld [3].

As the global economy continues to slow, I expect to see EVs and any green agenda items decrease in popularity, and a return to combustion engines and other policies with higher economic growth.

[1] https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/electric-car-sales-share

[2] https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php...

[3] https://www.gov.uk/guidance/vehicle-tax-for-electric-and-low...

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#167

Post by Toutouxc »

tim333 wrote: post #129
Toutouxc wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But.. it wasn't the scooter's fault, was it?

e-scooters seem incredibly unsafe to me and I think the figures back that up. e-bikes are much more stable.

I've ridden many thousands of kilometers on all kinds of regular bikes, e-bikes, e-scooters (of the small-wheels kind), electrified kickbikes (of the big-front-wheel kind) and actual scooters (of the vespa kind) and it all feels roughly the same to me. If you're an idiot who couldn't be bothered to learn how to ride $vehicle, you will likely crash $vehicle.

The issue is that e-scooters (of the small-wheels kind) are nowadays the weapon of choice of idiots who don't take riding seriously — because they're the cheapest and most portable solution that doesn't require any energy expenditure (unlike a bike) or special skill (unlike a onewheel or similar).

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#168

Post by metalman »

jahnu wrote: post #152
jeyoo wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not even an insider joke, everyone knows what an acoustic and electric guitar is. and funny is subjective, I had a good chuckle and will use the terminology now

I do prefer acoustic versions of Route 66, On the Road Again, and King of the Road.

which are better listened to, in an acoustic transmission car

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#169

Post by rcMgD2BwE72F »

rsynnott wrote: post #141
woodpanel wrote: post #98

How long, until it becomes illegal to come up with these feel-good mood-affiliation "reports" that paint Plug-In Hybrids (i.e. combustion-engines equipped with a supportive battery) as Electric Vehicles?

Many of those plugins will almost never use their combustion engine. Particularly in western Europe where most of these are selling, the average person doesn’t drive far enough per day to exhaust the battery. So it’s not just feel-good, it’s a real impact. That said, I don’t think that’s what this report is doing?

This contradicts your assertion: https://www.transportenvironment.org/articles/plug-hybrids-n...

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#170

Post by LoganDark »

xnx wrote: post #23

Even in cities that are pretty hostile to bikes, electric bikes/scooters are an amazing middle point between walking and all the expense of a car (purchase, loans, fuel, maintenance, insurance, registration, tickets, etc.).

Note that electric bikes/scooters get approximately zero consideration from cars. I was traveling in a bike lane last year and a truck just turned right into me. I easily could have died if not for my helmet. (Which received a glowing 5-star review for that performance, btw.)
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