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Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

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Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#161

Post by hardwaregeek »

lapcat wrote: post #148
hardwaregeek wrote: post #89

Thinking Basketball is one of my favorite resources for basketball analysis. He recently made a video debunking myths about the modern game [1]. While yes, there’s far more analytics and knowledge in the game, it hasn’t lead to monotony or poor quality. It’s instead resulted in a Cambrian explosion of tactics, counter tactics, and really diverse team strategies. But the commentary and analysis in mainstream basketbal…

> your average viewer is watching a chess match but not even understanding the basic moves Your average viewer isn't tuning in to watch a chess match. You'll notice that professional chess doesn't have the same viewership as basketball. Regardless of the mathematical strategies, it sucks to watch a bunch of three pointers getting missed. The NBA team average is 36% on 38 attempts per game. Thus, in an average game, t…

So I agree that more complexity is not better and there’s a real risk of alienating fans with complicated schemes. But chess has made real inroads by providing good commentators and analysis. You can’t make teams play dumber but you can teach fans to be smarter.

As for missing, the video I linked debunks that. 3 pointers are replacing long 2 pointers which also had a low percentage. And in turn, the game has become less crowded and more spread out, leading to a higher percentage on dunks and layups. The pace has also dramatically increased, leading to more swings in scoring, which is pretty exciting.

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#162

Post by xdavidliu »

> In the past, the team built its roster around a big name like Shaq. Most of the offense were from the center.

This is the first time I've ever heard this.

> they not only scored but guarded defense, caught rebounds and played the role of playmakers.

This is also the first time I've ever heard the phrases "guarded defense" and "caught rebounds".

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#163

Post by kenjackson »

hardwaregeek wrote: post #161
lapcat wrote: post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> your average viewer is watching a chess match but not even understanding the basic moves Your average viewer isn't tuning in to watch a chess match. You'll notice that professional chess doesn't have the same viewership as basketball. Regardless of the mathematical strategies, it sucks to watch a bunch of three pointers getting missed. The NBA team average is 36% on 38 attempts per game. Thus, in an average game, t…

So I agree that more complexity is not better and there’s a real risk of alienating fans with complicated schemes. But chess has made real inroads by providing good commentators and analysis. You can’t make teams play dumber but you can teach fans to be smarter. As for missing, the video I linked debunks that. 3 pointers are replacing long 2 pointers which also had a low percentage. And in turn, the game has become l…

Thinking Basketball is great. The people who complain about the 3s in basketball probably didn’t watch the NBA in the older days. Horrible defense and far less skill — and that’s the era I grew up and loved.

I have two major complaints about the game nowadays: (1) intentional fouling to get an advantage. It’s the only major sport where fouling can often work to your advantage. (2) The block call is so inconsistent it might as well be a coin flip.

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#164

Post by kenjackson »

pgm8705 wrote: post #124
gfunk911 wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I love the modern game. I just think the pendulum has swung a tiny bit too far toward 3s in the past 3-4 years, that's all. Just a nudge in the other direction. My ideal would be to try changing 2s and 3s to 3s and 4s. But that will never happen.

I think it would be enough to simply move the 3 point line back a couple feet AND have it follow its natural arc out of bounds, thus eliminating the shorter and easier corner 3 shot.

I’d rather defenses covered it better to give up more 2s in the paint. If we make it too far out it no longer spaces the floor and then we’re back to a game in the paint.

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#165

Post by zoklet-enjoyer »

Y_Y wrote: post #83
zoklet-enjoyer wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

$2,500!!! https://www.wilson.com/en-us/product/airless-gen1-bskt-natur...

> Each Airless Gen1 comes with a case, stand, and a numbered tag highlighting its unique exclusivity. Clearly that justifies it.

Oh, right, I forgot about the value of exclusivity. Like an irl NFT.

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#166

Post by bballfan133 »

hardwaregeek wrote: post #89

Thinking Basketball is one of my favorite resources for basketball analysis. He recently made a video debunking myths about the modern game [1]. While yes, there’s far more analytics and knowledge in the game, it hasn’t lead to monotony or poor quality. It’s instead resulted in a Cambrian explosion of tactics, counter tactics, and really diverse team strategies. But the commentary and analysis in mainstream basketbal…

I really dislike this talking point.

1) That people who don't enjoy what they see are just unsophisticated.

2) That today's basketball is better because players have more skill and plays are more complex. I don't think that's the point at all.

I've personally found it hard to sit through games this season - it feels like there isn't much at stake.

What happens in the first quarter is a mere blip. And even in the fourth, it seems like just which shots happen to go in by chance.

I feel like the Thinking Basketball approach might be exactly what's unenjoyable - devaluing individual moments for the sake of theory.

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#167

Post by jordanmorgan10 »

bdangubic wrote: post #138
jordanmorgan10 wrote: post #28

This reads as someone who looks at data but doesn’t actually play basketball, coach basketball or generally know basketball. Numbers can only tell you so much, and 2025 Celtics and the rise of Steph have led to more 3s but the sport of basketball is not as predictable as the author suggests. For example, look at the college game, which doesn’t reflect this trend as much as the NBA does.

you read the article? where did you see college in it? there is absolutely no sport today that is as predictable as nba. check this next thursday 2/20, boston is playing philly - boston will score between 108 and 125 points - they will attempt between 48 and 58 3's - they will make betwee 19 and 25 of them I can make another 5 of these, they will be true as it is always all the same these days

Yes, I did read the article. If you feel so confident about your predictions and are so sure of the author’s claims, why not put a bet down on that.

While you’re at it, do it for “another 5” and let me know how you get on.

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#168

Post by jordanmorgan10 »

wsatb wrote: post #134
jordanmorgan10 wrote: post #28

This reads as someone who looks at data but doesn’t actually play basketball, coach basketball or generally know basketball. Numbers can only tell you so much, and 2025 Celtics and the rise of Steph have led to more 3s but the sport of basketball is not as predictable as the author suggests. For example, look at the college game, which doesn’t reflect this trend as much as the NBA does.

I think they are talking strictly about the NBA. College players are much more inconsistent because they're younger and less experienced. There are not many 20 year olds you can depend on to consistently make 3s. There are also a lot more teams which spreads the talent pool around. In my opinion, it amounts to a more exciting product to watch, even if it's less polished.

Yes, I agree. Love the college game. I think people don’t realize how talented NBA players really are, which sounds crazy to type - but I believe its true.

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#169

Post by lapcat »

hardwaregeek wrote: post #161
lapcat wrote: post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> your average viewer is watching a chess match but not even understanding the basic moves Your average viewer isn't tuning in to watch a chess match. You'll notice that professional chess doesn't have the same viewership as basketball. Regardless of the mathematical strategies, it sucks to watch a bunch of three pointers getting missed. The NBA team average is 36% on 38 attempts per game. Thus, in an average game, t…

So I agree that more complexity is not better and there’s a real risk of alienating fans with complicated schemes. But chess has made real inroads by providing good commentators and analysis. You can’t make teams play dumber but you can teach fans to be smarter. As for missing, the video I linked debunks that. 3 pointers are replacing long 2 pointers which also had a low percentage. And in turn, the game has become l…

> As for missing, the video I linked debunks that. 3 pointers are replacing long 2 pointers which also had a low percentage.

I'd much rather watch NBA players miss 3's than watch a 23 minute YouTube video of someone talking about missing 3's. ;-) But the NBA FG% in 2025 is 46.5%, while it was 49.1% in 1985, so I'm skeptical that 3 pointers are simply replacing long 2 pointers with equal percentages. Obviously the % would go down the farther you get from the basket.

> And in turn, the game has become less crowded and more spread out, leading to a higher percentage on dunks and layups

Crowding is not necessarily bad. A contested shot is interesting; an uncontested shot, not so much. Even uncontested dunks are less interesting than contested dunks.

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#170

Post by rectang »

ghaff wrote: post #160
epolanski wrote: post #157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The world cup is not a league, it's a tournament. My point is towards the regular season + playoffs which is imho lame. Imagine a formula 1 season where you watch 20 races and then the best teams play it out in the last 4. That's a giant nonsense in most sports but somehow it spread even to European basket and volley in the 80s, I guess under the American influx. I just don't like it.

That's your choice of course. I suspect that a lot of casual fans (raises hand) may largely ignore the regular (long) season but get more engaged in the payoffs, especially if they have a team they care about involved which has obvious financial implications for the teams involved.

> payoffs

Exactly. ;) (Per cogent upthread analysis about maximizing revenue.)

But even casuals may get excited about e.g. the last few games of the Premier League season which determine the league winner (as well as who survives the relegation battle, which is a whole 'nuther drama).

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