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Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

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Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#161

Post by KaiserPro »

t43562 wrote: post #102
KaiserPro wrote: post #17

I think the bigger issue is that most of the financial upsides of startups were illusory Unless you're a founder, you're unlikely to make any money, and predatory VC/backers using convertibles/senior debt to turn your equity into Zimbabwean dollars. Thats before any stats are calculated for lasting long enough to either IPO, make money or get bought out. As someone who did successfully exit, the stories of multiple-m…

It's so nice to see my homeland is famous for something! :-) Zimbabwe Dollars FTW. I have 500 billion dollars in a cupboard somewhere BTW.

Sorry, I do love Zim really. I was looking for a metaphor that non-history nerds wouldnt confuse. Papiermark would have been better, but needed explaining.

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#162

Post by aqme28 »

itake wrote: post #107
aqme28 wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was the second engineer (series A) at a company that IPO’d at a unicorn valuation. By all rights that’s a great outcome. I made about as much in that exit as I would have if I were just at a FAANG instead

This tracks. I think the real value employees get is riding the rocketship in their career. Early engineers often have first dibs on higher level roles, like CTO or director over people that join late. Your initial grant might not be great, but being director at such a company is huge

Unfortunately, the company preferred to hire experienced ex-FAANG managers for those roles.

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#163

Post by KaiserPro »

itake wrote: post #21
KaiserPro wrote: post #17

I think the bigger issue is that most of the financial upsides of startups were illusory Unless you're a founder, you're unlikely to make any money, and predatory VC/backers using convertibles/senior debt to turn your equity into Zimbabwean dollars. Thats before any stats are calculated for lasting long enough to either IPO, make money or get bought out. As someone who did successfully exit, the stories of multiple-m…

> The only realy reason to join a startup is that you either believe in the "mission" or that you believe it will bring you joy to work in that way. Or the startup was a stepping stone in your career. Big Tech wouldn't hire you, b/c you have a different background, so you work at a startup to develop experience and then switch to Big Tech.

I mean yeah kinda. But the skills for a startup map poorly to big companies.

Startup: you look at something, plan, execute, learn skills as you go. Big company: here is x, do as I say. You must use these things from these teams, don't make it yourself.

Coping with the step down in responsibility is hard. Going from owning the entire stack to not even having a real decision in planning is very hard to deal with, especially if you've done that $thing before, and have to mount effectively an election campaign to change direction.

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#164

Post by aqme28 »

high_na_euv wrote: post #142
itake wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This tracks. I think the real value employees get is riding the rocketship in their career. Early engineers often have first dibs on higher level roles, like CTO or director over people that join late. Your initial grant might not be great, but being director at such a company is huge

What skills precisely you think about when it comes to an early engineer, but not founder/business person?

Scaling up a business, for one. By the time "scaling up" is actually computationally relevant, the founders are no longer coding.

Also general coding practices for large teams or multiple intersecting teams.

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#166

Post by KaiserPro »

Traubenfuchs wrote: post #58
KaiserPro wrote: post #17

I think the bigger issue is that most of the financial upsides of startups were illusory Unless you're a founder, you're unlikely to make any money, and predatory VC/backers using convertibles/senior debt to turn your equity into Zimbabwean dollars. Thats before any stats are calculated for lasting long enough to either IPO, make money or get bought out. As someone who did successfully exit, the stories of multiple-m…

If you join early, got plenty of stock options and the startup turns into a unicorn, those millions are totally possible. Until then, naturally, it's all paper money. A bet. Maybe an investment, of your time and effort. The majority of startups fail and the majority of startups having an IPO will not make anyone rich via stock grants. It's definitely a safer bet to find a high paying job in a stable company.

> If you join early, got plenty of stock options and the startup turns into a unicorn, those millions are totally possible.

lets take this bit by bit.

First, you need to have a decent % of the company. At each raise your share of the company will dilute. So you might have 1% at join, but by series d its been diluted in % as well as seniority.

You reach unicorn status,but the company isn't making money. So it might take on debt.

Eventually you then IPO. You either have your options converted to real stock (for a fee) and a covenant saying that if you leave before x, you'll have to hand back those shares. or if you are lucky you might be able to sell after say 6 months (super rare)

so after n years, you are able to sell your 10k in ordinary shares.

But in 2024 there were 21 IPOs. The chances of IPO are vanishingly small.

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#167

Post by graemep »

aleph_minus_one wrote: post #32
graemep wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Perhaps also society has become more conservative, so selling a really innovative product to a customer has become harder. Customers are more locked into existing products. Network effects, switching costs, familiarity and branding, staff training (for businesses) and learning something new....

I'd claim that also before the customers were locked into existing product. What is different is that in former days they were much more willing to get away from this lock-in. The reason for this that I consider to be the most plausible one is that society has become more conservative (i.e. less willing to change things or try out new things).

Lock is has been a problem for a long time, but I think the lock in is stronger. You have dependencies between multiple systems, dependencies between systems, data that is no longer stored locally on machines you control, etc.

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#168

Post by swat535 »

nick__m wrote: post #152
dcminter wrote: post #10

> What's changed? Largely, the make up of the audience in HN. I sincerely doubt that the hard core of people doing startups, thinking of doing a startup, or just very interested in the topic has gone away or changed attitude very much. But the profile of HN has grown. It's a miracle that it's still an interesting and curious group, but from comments I'd be astounded if there were not a far greater proportion of peopl…

As a Canadian in a low COL area working somewhere with almost absolute job security, a pension plan and plenty of opportunities for learning (I have a few 3 hours sessions on quantum computer starting next week :D ) I don't care much for the SV startup ... I am here for the selection of interesting articles and the high quality comments when it's not a political thread (those threads have less rational lower quality…

If I were to make an off topic comment and by no means I am picking on you personally, however as another Canadian, I find this general attitude of Canadians towards innovation unsettling and dare I say it's the reason why we are always playing catch up with US. It's also the number one reason why we are bleeding top talent to Americans which results our nation great economy loss.

I suppose you can argue that we have more of a "European" attitude, to which I would respond that while we pay high taxes like Europe, we hardly get any of the social security benefits that they enjoy, so in short we end up with worst of both worlds: high taxes, low salaries and limited benefits.

You can't expect a nation to develop the next FANG when people's idea of business is purchasing a home in the "suburbs" of Toronto and renting out its basement.

P.S I hope you are staying warm in this weather..

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#169

Post by KaiserPro »

kijin wrote: post #137
itake wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This tracks. I think the real value employees get is riding the rocketship in their career. Early engineers often have first dibs on higher level roles, like CTO or director over people that join late. Your initial grant might not be great, but being director at such a company is huge

Yeah, this is often overlooked in all the talk of $300k FAANG salaries. Few people get those senior salaries, and those who do get it because of their unusual skills and experiences. A stint at a startup is still a pretty good way to get those skills and experiences, compared to spending the same amount of time as a junior developer somewhere else. If you can make capital gains equivalent to FAANG senior salaries whi…

levels.fyi will give you some confidence in the wage.

Google, Meta, Amazon & microsoft all do banding, so the base wages is mostly public (hence why its all bollocks about wage negotiation, there isn't any.) The first level of senior for most of these orgs will tip the scales at around $300k

Having worked at both startup and FAANG, I don;t think startups actually give you the skills to flourish here in corp land. Sure, you might be a good coder, but most of the time its navigating politics that actually gets you promotion (that or good luck with a successful project)

You really don't need to be a good coder to be at a FAANG. Sure there are specialisms as you point out. but most of the time its just entry level CRUD, followed by manic debugging with shitty non-documented tools.

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#170

Post by rpcope1 »

pjc50 wrote: post #86
diggan wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I think the bigger issue is that most of the financial upsides of startups were illusory I wouldn't say I'm an old-timer by any metrics, but even back in 2012 when I first discovered and joined HN, I remember it was pretty clear in the community (and people I spoke to around me) you shouldn't go to work at a startup if you were looking for "a lot + safe" money. Sure, you could belong to the 0.001% and work on the n…

Here's a question: what's the list of startups fitting the criteria of - after 2008 Great Financial Crisis - actual startup, not spinoff from larger company - financially successful exit - early non-founder employees made a substantial amount of money?

Solidfire (which never got talked about at all on HN) fits the bill nicely.
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