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Nvidia and its partners built a system to bypass U.S. export restrictions

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Re: Nvidia and its partners built a system to bypass U.S. export restrictions

#161

Post by dagenleg »

powerapple wrote: post #139
ruggeri wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> So was everything with Taiwan hunky dory when they were a murderous military dictatorship for all those decades[1]? It's good to remember that Taiwan's adoption of multiparty democracy is very recent, and that a one-party dictatorship preceded it. And of course the PRC has always had lots of reasons to want to take back Taiwan, regardless whether it fears that mainland Chinese might see the Taiwanese system as pref…

Hong Kong was set as an example how Taiwan can be integrated as a separate economy, separate government and separate everything as long as it is part of China. The reason why it happened in Hong Kong was that the political movement was out of control, you have some members of the parliament saying "fuck China" when they swear to service during the ceremony. It is more about how Hong Kong sees China, not how China see…

This is straight up the official CCP party line you're repeating here. How Chinese people are somehow uniquely unsuited for democracy.

The "multiparty democracy system in Taiwan is not seen as a positive thing" by whom? The Taiwanese? The election results from that country have shown quite the opposite.

Re: Nvidia and its partners built a system to bypass U.S. export restrictions

#162

Post by GuB-42 »

aspenmayer wrote: post #9
andreweggleston wrote: post #4

Reminds me of IBM’s (successful) attempt to skirt US regulations regarding trade with Nazi Germany: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dehomag

Coca-Cola did this too with Fanta. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fanta

Fanta reminded us of that fact, in a likely to be unintended way.

They broadcast an ad in Germany for the 75 years of the brand, claiming to bring back "the feeling of the Good Old Times". Considering that the "Good Old Time" in question was when Nazis ruled, it caused quite a backlash.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/561589/Coca-Cola-pulls-...

Re: Nvidia and its partners built a system to bypass U.S. export restrictions

#163

Post by Wytwwww »

spwa4 wrote: post #157
Wytwwww wrote: post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> which doesn't seem to have worked anywhere Well by definition it has worked in all other cases that you have not listed. Also you can't expect terrorist organizations to behave rationally (on a state/geopolitical level) and pretty much all Middle Eastern countries (besides Iran and they aren't 100% committed either) came to terms with the fact that Israel does and will continue to exist. Did that happen due to ideo…

If that's your measurement stick why aren't Iran and Afghanistan counted? You can't dismiss whole countries as terrorist organizations, no matter how they behave (China is at least as bad as Iran, for example, they also run a hostage taking business, and only difference in weaponry is that China actually rapidly succeeded in their nuclear program, which the world then proceeded to totally ignore and refuse to discuss…

> aren't Iran

Iran's position is ambiguous, though. There is no evidence that they'd be willing to engage in any full-scale conflict. If it was purely ideological they'd be doing much more than they are doing now. e.g. Hamas is seemingly willing to see Gaza razed to the ground and with a significant proportion of its population killed than concede anything (no semi rational state behaves that way).

Afghanistan is economically insignificant.

Re: Nvidia and its partners built a system to bypass U.S. export restrictions

#164

Post by kelnos »

InkCanon wrote: post #66
tw04 wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Should Taiwan fall, and China choose to ban exports from there to the US, then the fun and games would really start. If it looked like Taiwan was actually going to fall, the first thing to be destroyed would be the fabs. There’s almost 0 chance China gets anything usable. If they thought they could, they would’ve invaded during Trump’s term.

Destroyed by who - the US or Taiwan? If by Taiwan, IMO it is extremely unlikely. Scorched earth tactics have only been used by the most bitter, determined combatants in a conflict, who are expecting a long protracted war. The cutting edge chips have enormous economic value but virtually no immediate or even medium term military value to China (the time it would take to design and start using them in hardware is years…

TSMC themselves has said they'll disable them, and machine manufacturer ASML has plans for how they could do it.

https://9to5mac.com/2024/05/21/chinese-invasion-of-taiwan-ts...

Re: Nvidia and its partners built a system to bypass U.S. export restrictions

#165

Post by aurareturn »

high_na_euv wrote: post #147
aurareturn wrote: post #140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>They want to design and manufacture themselves. Sure, but they want to rely on TSMC now so they don't fall behind in high tech in 2024/2025. Getting their own EUV tech is still many years away. >Going to war does the same multiplied by 100? 1000? Well, you know what they say, if I can't have it, you can't either.

But US has Intels fabs, which will be around or at leading node (18A) in next 6-8months

Yep. I own some Intel stock as a hedge.

Re: Nvidia and its partners built a system to bypass U.S. export restrictions

#166

Post by kelnos »

bruce511 wrote: post #92
PittleyDunkin wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The ban exists as good politics (we don't ship to our adversaries) Do normal people really view china as an adversary? I see this constantly being pushed by politicians and pundits but, unlike other countries in my lifetime, I don't really see that much animosity from normal folk. Expats who resent the PRC? Absolutely. Racism? Definitely. But there's not much appetite for the demonization of our largest trade partn…

Not sure why you're getting downvotes, it's a legitimate question. There are different kinds of adversary. A traditional tactic in politics is to find someone to blame. Trump blames immigrants, Muslims and China. He translated this into economic action by putting tarrifs on Chinese goods. (Tarrifs are a terrible idea, but one of the few things the president can do unilaterally.) Thanks to his years of anti-chinese rh…

> Geopolitically, China is investing heavily in influence. There are lots of programs in other countries (especially Africa and Asia) where they are fostering trade and building infrastructure. This comes largely at the expense of US influence.

So then what you are saying is, as an American, I should consider them an adversary. Unless I think that their influence on geopolitics is good (I don't) or that my own country losing influence is good (I don't).

Re: Nvidia and its partners built a system to bypass U.S. export restrictions

#167

Post by godelski »

clwg wrote: post #119
bruce511 wrote: post #30

Nvidia is obviously a US company, but the chips themselves are manufactured in Taiwan. And of course China sees Taiwan as a rogue province, at at least treats invasion there as "on the table". While the US may decide to actively support Taiwan, at the very least a war over that will disrupt production. Should Taiwan fall, and China choose to ban exports from there to the US, then the fun and games would really start.…

In the event of a invasion TMSC in Taiwan will cease to function. "TMSC and its Dutch chip machine supplier ASML have made joint plans to remotely disable the machines in the event of an invasion." https://9to5mac.com/2024/05/21/chinese-invasion-of-taiwan-ts...

People seem to not realize that (just like them) Taiwan knows that China wants TSMC. Even if there wasn't a way to turn the machines off remotely in an invasion, do people not recognize that Taiwan will gladly make China blow up the facility, or do it themselves. The US said they'll do it if Taiwan won't. (Though this may change tomorrow [0])

But it's not just the facility that's important, it's the people. It's not like you can walk in and press a button and start making chips (not to mention the whole supply chain for the materials necessary for manufacturing). It's not a turkey operator...

If China somehow captured the facility without severe damage, do you really believe those engineers are just going to do the work? Or rather, do it to their best abilities? Typically people are not very happy when their country has been annexed. It's very easy to slow down production, to introduce error, and it doesn't take very many people resisting to shut down the whole operation, especially if many people are willing to at least "look the other way". All the while the US and others will happily the providing support and be trying to extract those engineers and they're families. (And other countries aren't going to be providing materials so China needs to jump an even bigger gap)

Taiwan knows their silicon shield. It exists by design. And it's resistant to more than an invasion. The chance of a China invasion leading to Chinese chip dominance within a decade after the invasion is near 0. It would only weaken the works supply, so it's just China shooting itself in the foot (maybe both and maybe an arm too). It'd be insane to hurt yourself more in an effort to hurt your enemy even a decent amount. Though it's still not out of the question.

[0] https://www.reuters.com/technology/tsmc-shares-fall-more-tha...

Re: Nvidia and its partners built a system to bypass U.S. export restrictions

#168

Post by godelski »

akira2501 wrote: post #160
clwg wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the event of a invasion TMSC in Taiwan will cease to function. "TMSC and its Dutch chip machine supplier ASML have made joint plans to remotely disable the machines in the event of an invasion." https://9to5mac.com/2024/05/21/chinese-invasion-of-taiwan-ts...

They'll be disassembled and studied.

They could get fully operating machines and that's not enough to make them the global chip leader overnight, or even in a decade.

Analogously, the reason AMD is trailing Nvidia isn't just about hardware... There's many factors at play and this is true for TSMC as well

Re: Nvidia and its partners built a system to bypass U.S. export restrictions

#169

Post by frankacter »

aurareturn wrote: post #135
frankacter wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>I think the TSMC restrictions on China is really bad for Taiwan in the next few years. First, it’s a huge revenue loss for Taiwan. TSMC sells more than it is capable of producing. This will likely continue to be a limiter for the foreseeable future. No revenue is being lost as a result of limiting export to China. >Second, it creates a scenario in which China would take military action on Taiwan if they fall behind…

TSMC sells more than it is capable of producing. This will likely continue to be a limiter for the foreseeable future. No revenue is being lost as a result of limiting export to China. First, TSMC's capacity isn't full right now. Second, if China relies on TSMC, they'd expand by building more fabs. Third, with more competition from China, they can increase the price of their nodes for all their customers. Fourth, Chi…

>First, TSMC's capacity isn't full right now.

Taiwan fabrication labs, where the most cutting edge tech is produced, are above capacity. This is the core of this discussion.

They are building new fabs inside and outside of Taiwan to catch up to demand, but as of now those are one or more generations behind.

To the rest of your initial statement, it starts with a flawed premise so not worth responding.

>I think Taiwan is being put as a sacrificial lamb almost by the US and I think it's in Taiwan's best interest to play to both sides more.

I am citizen, not a resident.

Taiwan's position as the first chain island is it's primary strategic advantage to both US as well as other Asian neighboring countries in the region.

Taiwan follows international law in effort to maintain and regain it's international standing. Taiwan maintains diplomatic and trade relations with China,but recognize that China is actively taking direct actions to limit Taiwan's political and economical relations and growth.

Reliance on a hostile neighbor that continually reminds you they will force unification by military action if necessary is a losing game, and trusting carrots like "one nation, two systems" lost all credibility with the downfall of Hong Kong.

Re: Nvidia and its partners built a system to bypass U.S. export restrictions

#170

Post by simgt »

Qwertious wrote: post #143
PittleyDunkin wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> china doesn't want to control taiwan due to any economic reasons That's absolutely not true if only for the existence of TSMC.

Not only have Taiwan said that if Taiwan invades, "we're going to blow up TSMC", but sabotaging semiconductors is absolutely, utterly trivial to do by anyone in the dozens/hundreds of steps needed to produce the cutting-edge semiconductors that make the difference between TSMC and China's domestic fabs. You can wreck production yields by using the wrong color of paint in the break room or running a fan outside the bu…

> China will be at war, and war is terrible for the economy

If you're not looking only at poor metrics like the GDP or balance of trade, is it the case when it's not happening on your soil? As long as the natural resources are available, it seems like a good way to recenter the economy on what is actually important for survival.

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