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Three Mile Island nuclear plant restart in Microsoft AI power deal

reuters.com

161–170 of 338 posts

Re: Three Mile Island nuclear plant restart in Microsoft AI power deal

#161
post #66

No battery farm can protect a solar/wind grid from an arbitrarily extended period of bad weather. If you have N days of battery storage and the sun doesn't shine for N+1 days, you're in trouble. Nuclear fission is the answer. Today there are 440 nuclear reactors operating in 32 countries. Nuclear fission power plants are expensive to build but once built the plant can last 50 years (maybe 80 years, maybe more) and th…

What you didn’t mention is the effect that renewables have on the cost of nuclear power. When you get plentiful and nearly free solar energy at certain times of the year, the utilization of your nuclear power plant will drop. Because nuclear power has high up front costs, its economics are increasingly eroded as more renewables and batteries are added to the grid. You’re totally correct that renewables and batteries…

> When you get plentiful and nearly free solar energy at certain times of the year, the utilization of your nuclear power plant will drop

In the short run, sure. In the long run, cheap power builds its own demand. A country that commits to a certain amount of nuclear baseload, even if run at a loss in the short term, is injecting a very real industrial subsidy into its system. (The way to ensure you don’t get a dog is to subsidise long-term loans for private borrowers. They still need to make a profit someday. But you reduce the time value of money for them.)

The investment doesn’t make sense for a non-nuclear power. But if you’re already producing nuclear waste at scale for your military, it’s a little silly to pretend you’re safer without a civilian reactor in the middle of a desert while all manner of subs and ships patrol your coast.

Re: Three Mile Island nuclear plant restart in Microsoft AI power deal

#162
post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You can absolutely build solar+wind+storage systems that deliver 24/7/365 energy with many nines SLAs, on the real earth with real statistics on weather. Once you start adding nines, nuclear starts to be become attractive again. Hence these deals.

> Once you start adding nines, nuclear starts to be become attractive again. Only if you ignore reliability issues with nuclear, such as France having to take a lot of reactors offline at the same time to check for cracks. The comparison has to be fair.

Why did they have to be checked all at once? That sounds like a design or regulation problem.

Re: Three Mile Island nuclear plant restart in Microsoft AI power deal

#163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're claiming it would be terrible for the rest of us, without supporting that assumption in any way. It's not a fact, pseudo scifi action movies don't count as facts.

He's talking about the economic consequences. AGI in an internet connected world is capitalism end-game. Once you have AGI, labour (both physical and intellectual) becomes redundant, humans have a "value to the system" approaching zero. Our economic system is built on a series of assumptions that fundamentally cannot survive AGI, and nobody is really even trying to grapple with that fact.

The economic system is not set in stone. If everyone is irrelevant to it, the economic system becomes irrelevant to everyone, and a parallel system gradually replaces it.

Re: Three Mile Island nuclear plant restart in Microsoft AI power deal

#164

No battery farm can protect a solar/wind grid from an arbitrarily extended period of bad weather. If you have N days of battery storage and the sun doesn't shine for N+1 days, you're in trouble. Nuclear fission is the answer. Today there are 440 nuclear reactors operating in 32 countries. Nuclear fission power plants are expensive to build but once built the plant can last 50 years (maybe 80 years, maybe more) and th…

> No battery farm can protect a solar/wind grid from an arbitrarily extended period of bad weather. I don’t understand why wind solar is subject to absolutes devoid of probability - “what if the sun and wind stop simultaneously for 2 months?” We know the probability that the sun stops shining and the wind stops blowing for N days, we can calculate it from historical data. You can absolutely build solar+wind+storage s…

[deleted]

Re: Three Mile Island nuclear plant restart in Microsoft AI power deal

#165
post #65

> Constellation, which plans to spend about $1.6 billion to restart the plant, is awaiting permits and expects the facility to come online by 2028 [and] would provide Microsoft with 835 megawatts of energy. I don't quite understand how this makes sense financially for Microsoft. A 1 GW offshore wind farm costs about 1 billion [1]. The Gemini Solar + Battery Storage Project in Nevada is about 1.1 billion (690 MW + 380…

You'd need to adjust those for capacity factor, but I wondered the same thing.

The AI space seems to have weird overlaps with nuclear that I don't quite get.

Not sure if it's just the social circles the AI people run in.

Zuckerberg was all excited on a podcast about how energy was the limiting factor for AI, waited for him to say something about how cheap and fast rollouts of renewables made sense but no, nuclear. Even this refurb is talking minimum 4 years to get going. All very strange.

Re: Three Mile Island nuclear plant restart in Microsoft AI power deal

#166
post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is nonsense. If you're going to cite arbitrary "N+1 days of bad weather" then I can cite "N+1 severe natural disasters" where the nuclear reactor is engineered to withstand N. And unlike the theoretical "disaster" due to extended bad weather taking renewables down, this has actually happened in recent memory with Fukushima. And this was a true disaster, not just a power outage. Nuclear is not safe. Every time pr…

> Nuclear is not safe Nothing is 100.0% safe - but as far as I can find nuclear comes incredibly close[0] even when including Chernobyl and Fukushima. [0]: https://ourworldindata.org/safest-sources-of-energy

Focusing on deaths is a nice trick of the nuclear industry because the largest negative impacts of their disasters and even non-disaster costs of operation are still terrible but do not manifest as immediate deaths.

Re: Three Mile Island nuclear plant restart in Microsoft AI power deal

#167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Practically, a lot of nuclear power plants can be down at the same time for maintenance etc., so you need to overbuild quite a bit there as well then

No. Nuclear power plants are super reliable and available. German und US plants had/have capacity factors of well over 90%, and the downtimes are scheduled . The "overbuild" is minimal.

> and the downtimes are scheduled.

Dayjob is in energy market algo trading and DER ancillary services in EU, and I can tell you with confidence this is far from true.

And when the nukes trip for safety reasons - which happens multiple times per year - that’s a GW that just dropped off the grid from one second to the next.

For me, I much prefer the reliability of wind and solar; never seen a correlated failure, and we know their production pattern days in advance.

Re: Three Mile Island nuclear plant restart in Microsoft AI power deal

#168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And thank-you for making the point that utilities should be socialized and not a profit center. EVERYBODY deserves clean water, electricity, housing and food.

Who pays for it? If everybody gets all of the above for free, then why would they ever work and contribute to covering the cost of these free for everyone services? Once a large number of people stop working, who actually works to grow the food? Who builds the houses? Communism does not work.

Everyone pays for it.

It's interesting that you bring up a large number of people no longer growing food as if that's not the current reality. What do all those people do now that they don't have to work for food?

Re: Three Mile Island nuclear plant restart in Microsoft AI power deal

#169
post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Nuclear is not safe Nothing is 100.0% safe - but as far as I can find nuclear comes incredibly close[0] even when including Chernobyl and Fukushima. [0]: https://ourworldindata.org/safest-sources-of-energy

Focusing on deaths is a nice trick of the nuclear industry because the largest negative impacts of their disasters and even non-disaster costs of operation are still terrible but do not manifest as immediate deaths.

> but do not manifest as immediate deaths.

This isn't just counting immediate deaths - else it'd just be ~30 for Chernobyl and ~0 for Fukushima.

In fact, Fukushima's death count seems to primarily be down to that "people had died indirectly as a result of the physical and mental stress of evacuation" - which I feel should at least partially be put on the tsunami that killed 20000.

Re: Three Mile Island nuclear plant restart in Microsoft AI power deal

#170

No battery farm can protect a solar/wind grid from an arbitrarily extended period of bad weather. If you have N days of battery storage and the sun doesn't shine for N+1 days, you're in trouble. Nuclear fission is the answer. Today there are 440 nuclear reactors operating in 32 countries. Nuclear fission power plants are expensive to build but once built the plant can last 50 years (maybe 80 years, maybe more) and th…

> No battery farm can protect a solar/wind grid from an arbitrarily extended period of bad weather. I don’t understand why wind solar is subject to absolutes devoid of probability - “what if the sun and wind stop simultaneously for 2 months?” We know the probability that the sun stops shining and the wind stops blowing for N days, we can calculate it from historical data. You can absolutely build solar+wind+storage s…

You make very legitimate point which I appreciate; I agree than in aggregate weather forecasting should be fairly reliable as regards sun and wind.

Question though... do we understand the tail risk from volcanos on solar outputs, either natural-occurring eruptions or maliciously-triggered ones?

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