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Self-driving as a case study for AGI

karpathy.github.io

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Re: Self-driving as a case study for AGI

#161

Post by steveBK123 »

enslavedrobot wrote: post #27
jackblemming wrote: post #19

Something tells me Karpathy rarely uses the “FSD” in his Tesla. He barely mentioned Tesla FSD in the blog despite being a key leader in the project. Perhaps he’d like to forget about it all together.. Maybe Elon really screwed the project by forcing the use of video cams and Karpathy is still salty about it.

Actually if you read the blog he addresses Waymo and Tesla's strategy. He says the barriers to Tesla scaling are software and Waymo needs to scale hardware. He then implies that software will win the scaling race

Tesla "its just another software update away" pumps are the most delusional.

Tesla cameras aren't even class leading in the automative industry, let alone at the cars price point. They are worse than the iPhone you handed down to your tween 5 years ago. What makes anyone think that their quality and placement will ever be adequate even with new CPUs and better software?

Re: Self-driving as a case study for AGI

#162

Post by electrondood »

nextaccountic wrote: post #97
Radim wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The "middleman" being other people, i.e. themselves from another's perspective. "These other people are useless, let's bypass them. But not me! I simply gain the ability to get anything I want." The lack of second-order thinking is hilarious.

The real issue is that we live in an economic system where people are exploited for labor, and in turn they buy products and services made with their own labor (and another class get to profit from it). If we introduce AGI but keep the system, people will be unemployed. If people aren't employed (and instead machines do their jobs), then they can't buy stuff. The whole system crumbles. But it's possible that AGI will…

I see an impending intersection of three phenomena, with potentially disastrous results for society:

* Social media is decreasing the average attention span. TikTok is accelerating the trend of people not having time to look past a soundbite or headline in an endless scrolling feed. Intellectual depth and critical thinking vanishes.

* AI deep fakes make truth unknowable. Given the above, the majority of people will take these at face value, or they will give up, because "who can even know what's true anymore?"

* UBI (required because of the coming labor automation revolution) will keep everyone complacent. I'm happy, why would I care who gets elected, or what the government does, as long as I can still buy stuff and eat well?

The logical conclusion is that we fully transition from citizens into a herd of consumers with goldfish attention spans. Voter participation rates plummet. The populace is no longer able to hold government accountable.

Re: Self-driving as a case study for AGI

#163

Post by mechagodzilla »

gitfan86 wrote: post #153
mechagodzilla wrote: post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think for us to say it's "beginning to have a significant impact on the economy", there needs to be an actual measurable increase in productivity due to AI-enabled automation, which so far has been elusive. It might be impacting employment in some specific jobs, but the mix of jobs in the economy is always constantly changing.

Just because something is difficult to measure does not mean it doesn't exist. People who have automated their jobs are unlikely to report that, since they like having a paycheck. But that doesn't mean it isn't happening.

It's not difficult to measure though - we've been tracking total factor productivity of our economy for decades. Steam power, electrification, computers - all of these things had huge, measurable impacts on the amount of economic output vs input. No self-reporting (of what?) necessary. If AI means that companies are getting the same or more output from less input of labor and capital, productivity should be soaring right now.

Re: Self-driving as a case study for AGI

#164

Post by gitfan86 »

mechagodzilla wrote: post #163
gitfan86 wrote: post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just because something is difficult to measure does not mean it doesn't exist. People who have automated their jobs are unlikely to report that, since they like having a paycheck. But that doesn't mean it isn't happening.

It's not difficult to measure though - we've been tracking total factor productivity of our economy for decades. Steam power, electrification, computers - all of these things had huge, measurable impacts on the amount of economic output vs input. No self-reporting (of what?) necessary. If AI means that companies are getting the same or more output from less input of labor and capital, productivity should be soaring r…

Electrical output, number of units shipped can be measured.

How do you measure the output of a DEI department? Now assume those people automated their jobs with Chat GPT. How would you measure the change in productivity?

Re: Self-driving as a case study for AGI

#165

Post by mechagodzilla »

mechagodzilla wrote: post #163
gitfan86 wrote: post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just because something is difficult to measure does not mean it doesn't exist. People who have automated their jobs are unlikely to report that, since they like having a paycheck. But that doesn't mean it isn't happening.

It's not difficult to measure though - we've been tracking total factor productivity of our economy for decades. Steam power, electrification, computers - all of these things had huge, measurable impacts on the amount of economic output vs input. No self-reporting (of what?) necessary. If AI means that companies are getting the same or more output from less input of labor and capital, productivity should be soaring r…

@gitfan86 - You would measure that the same way productivity is always measured - The company's overall economic output would be unchanged, and their labor inputs would have decreased, so the total factor productivity would have increased by virtue of automating the DEI group (just the same as when companies used 'mail-merge' to automate large groups of people doing that work manually, for instance).

Re: Self-driving as a case study for AGI

#166

Post by nullstyle »

latexr wrote: post #128
jillesvangurp wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't consider people having to adjust a negative. We don't have a right to never have to adjust or adapt to a changing world. Things change, people adapt. Well some of them. The rest just gets old and dies off. Artists will be fine; so will everybody else. If anything, people will have a lot more time to do artistic things. More than ever probably and possibly at a grander scale that past generations of artists co…

> Things change, people adapt. Well some of them. The rest just gets old and dies off. Which, continuing the analogy, is like watching your neighbour be slaughtered and defending the war by saying we’ll be fine because those who won’t be will eventually die. Sure, in a few generations we could be better off, but there are people living right now to think about. Those who dismiss it are the lucky ones who (think they)…

Handguns are a bigger problem in the modern world than machine guns. How does that change your analogy?

Re: Self-driving as a case study for AGI

#167

Post by randomdata »

electrondood wrote: post #160
distortionfield wrote: post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think software devs on here are conflating AI with a hidden recession and other economic factors causing a slump in tech. I still can’t find a single thing that AI could reasonably replace about my job even if I was a junior developer. As a senior engineer using LLM tooling, it offers some benefits, but it’s still nowhere near “job stealing” capabilities.

There's a new fallacy, where AI is dismissed if it "can't replace" a human completely. AI is more like an augmentation tool, that allows fewer people to create work faster by effectively outsourcing the grunt work. Better tools like Copilot and ChatGPT reduce the amount of time it takes to deliver a feature, reducing the need to horizontally scale developers. Why hire 10 when 3 could do the same work with AI tooling?…

> Why hire 10 when 3 could do the same work with AI tooling?

Why hire 3 when you can hire 10 to do the work of 33? It was only a couple of years ago when businesses were boasting "We can't possibly hire enough."

But, of course, there isn't enough money to be made anymore, which is the real reason creative industries are on the decline.

Re: Self-driving as a case study for AGI

#168

Post by smus »

steveBK123 wrote: post #101

Seeing the guy who couldn't deliver FSD decide to make analogies from FSD to AGI does actually give me confidence we are decades away. Yes, yes, I know there's like 1-2 companies that have highly modified vehicles that are pretty good, in a limited geofenced area, in good weather, at low speed, driving conservatively, local roads, most of the time. This is not "FSD". They've been making very impressive incremental im…

>But when can I get in a taxi at JFK or on 5th Ave and get robotaxied through city streets, urban highway, off into the far suburbs? Could be a decade, if it happens. Just because we were able to make horses faster doesn't mean we flew horses to the moon.

Having ridden in a lot of waymo's which can handle SF (urban stuff) and the phoenix area (highways and suburban stuff) perfectly well, I feel quite confident that that could happen right now.

Re: Self-driving as a case study for AGI

#169

Post by icpmacdo »

steveBK123 wrote: post #101

Seeing the guy who couldn't deliver FSD decide to make analogies from FSD to AGI does actually give me confidence we are decades away. Yes, yes, I know there's like 1-2 companies that have highly modified vehicles that are pretty good, in a limited geofenced area, in good weather, at low speed, driving conservatively, local roads, most of the time. This is not "FSD". They've been making very impressive incremental im…

> Seeing the guy who couldn't deliver FSD decide to make analogies

Reductive and rude phrasing.

Re: Self-driving as a case study for AGI

#170

Post by freediver »

omeze wrote: post #17
freediver wrote: post #6

I too did not realize Waymo is operating in SF and looked for some videos on YT and found this. It paints not so rosey picture about it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Rxvl3INKSg

I use Waymos every week, Im sure there were early problems with navigation but its been flawless every time Ive rode for the past few months

Gld to hear that. It is pretty amaziing we’ve gone this far.
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