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GraphCast: AI model for weather forecasting

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Re: GraphCast: AI model for weather forecasting

#161

Post by crazygringo »

_visgean wrote: post #149
crazygringo wrote: post #143

Making progress on weather forecasting is amazing, and it's been interesting to see the big tech companies get into this space. Apple moved from using The Weather Channel to their own forecasting a year ago [1]. Using AI to produce better weather forecasts is exactly the kind of thing that is right up Google's alley -- I'm very happy to see this, and can't wait for this to get built into our weather apps. [1] https:/…

> Apple moved from using The Weather Channel to their own forecasting a year ago [1]. AFAIK they don't have their own forecasting models, they use same data sources as everyone else: https://support.apple.com/en-us/HT211777

Your linked article says they use their own, if you're on a version later than iOS 15.2.

Re: GraphCast: AI model for weather forecasting

#162

Post by polygamous_bat »

Vagantem wrote: post #146
polygamous_bat wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yikes, after completed three steps I was asked for my email. No to your bait and switch, thanks!

It can take up to 10 min to generate a report - I had a spinner before but people just left the page. So I implemented a way to send it to them instead. I’ve never used the emails for anything else than that. Try it with a 10 min disposable email address if you like. Thanks for your feedback!

Ok, seems like your UI is not coming from a place of malice. However, pulling out an email input form at the final step is a very widespread UI dark pattern, so if nothing else please let people know that you will ask their email before they start interacting with your forms.

Re: GraphCast: AI model for weather forecasting

#163

Post by caseyf7 »

meteo-jeff wrote: post #20

In case someone is looking for historical weather data for ML training and prediction, I created an open-source weather API which continuously archives weather data. Using past and forecast data from multiple numerical weather models can be combined using ML to achieve better forecast skill than any individual model. Because each model is physically bound, the resulting ML model should be stable. See: https://open-me…

How did you handle missing data? I’ve used NOAA data a few times and I’m always surprised at how many days of historical data are missing. They have also stopped recording in certain locations and then start in new locations over time making it hard to get solid historical weather information.

Re: GraphCast: AI model for weather forecasting

#164

Post by alxmrs »

layoric wrote: post #133

I can't see any citation to accuracy comparisons, or maybe I just missed them? Given the amount of data, and complexity of the domain, it would be good to see a much more detailed breakdown of their performance vs other models. My experience in this space is that I was first employee at Solcast building a live 'nowcast' system for 4+ years (left ~2021) targeting solar radiation and cloud opacity initially, but expand…

I’m so happy you asked about this! Check out https://sites.research.google/weatherbench/

Re: GraphCast: AI model for weather forecasting

#165

Post by drakenot »

joegibbs wrote: post #154

When will we have enough data that we will be able to apply this to everything? Imagine a model that can predict all kinds of trends - what new consumer good will be the most likely to succeed, where the next war is most likely to break out, who will win the next election, which stocks are going to break out. One gigantic black box with a massive state, with input from everything - planning approvals, social media po…

Sounds a bit like the premise for the Asimov series, "The Foundation"

Re: GraphCast: AI model for weather forecasting

#166

Post by Guestmodinfo »

meteo-jeff wrote: post #20

In case someone is looking for historical weather data for ML training and prediction, I created an open-source weather API which continuously archives weather data. Using past and forecast data from multiple numerical weather models can be combined using ML to achieve better forecast skill than any individual model. Because each model is physically bound, the resulting ML model should be stable. See: https://open-me…

I always suspect that they don't tell me the actual temperature. Maybe I am totally wrong but I suspect. I need to get my own physical thermometer not the digital one in my room and outside my house and have a camera focussed on it. So that later I can speed up the video and see how much the weather varied the previous night.

Re: GraphCast: AI model for weather forecasting

#167

Post by je42 »

stabbles wrote: post #102

If you live in a country where local, short-term rain / shower forecast is essential (like [1] [2]), it's funny to see how incredibly bad radar forecast is. There are really convenient apps that show an animated map with radar data of rain, historical data + prediction (typically). The prediction is always completely bonkers. You can eyeball it better. No wonder "AI" can improve that. Even linear extrapolation is bet…

However, tools like buienrader seem to have trouble in the recent months/years to accurately predict local weather.

Re: GraphCast: AI model for weather forecasting

#168

Post by bobviolier »

bberenberg wrote: post #115
stabbles wrote: post #102

If you live in a country where local, short-term rain / shower forecast is essential (like [1] [2]), it's funny to see how incredibly bad radar forecast is. There are really convenient apps that show an animated map with radar data of rain, historical data + prediction (typically). The prediction is always completely bonkers. You can eyeball it better. No wonder "AI" can improve that. Even linear extrapolation is bet…

Interesting that you say this. I spent in month in AMS 7-8 years ago and buienradar was accurate down to the minute when I used it. Has something changed?

I don't know how or why, but yes, it has become less accurate over at least the last year or so.

Re: GraphCast: AI model for weather forecasting

#169

Post by helloplanets »

Vagantem wrote: post #124

Related to this, I built a service that shows what day it has rained the least on in the last 10 years - for any location and month! Perfect to find your perfect wedding date. Feel free to check out :) https://dropory.com

Was interested to check this out for Helsinki, but site loads blank on Safari :(

Re: GraphCast: AI model for weather forecasting

#170

Post by boxed »

counters wrote: post #32
boxed wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't get this. Surely past and real weather should be the input training data, not the output of numerical modeling?

Well, what is "real weather data?" We have dozens of complementary and contradictory sources of weather information. Different types of satellites measuring EM radiation in different bands, weather stations, terrestrial weather radars, buoys, weather balloons... it's a massive hodge-podge of different systems measuring different things in an uncoordinated fashion. Today, it's not really practical to assemble that dat…

Oh yea, sure. But the article makes it seems like the model is trained on some predictive model, instead of a synthesis model. That seems weird to me.
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