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Does Market Timing Work?

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Re: Does Market Timing Work?

#161

Post by missedthecue »

wolverine876 wrote: post #159
missedthecue wrote: post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's called social security and it's enormously expensive and borderline unaffordable... And not even enough to retire on comfortably

Yet it works so well that the public overwhelmingly supports it. > borderline unaffordable It's funded by your own income; it's a compulsory savings plan.

No, I mean societally it's unaffordable. The government will eventually need to raise taxes significantly or begin means testing it. The current system is mathematically unsustainable

Re: Does Market Timing Work?

#162

Post by shrimpx »

mr_mitm wrote: post #53
shrimpx wrote: post #8

Although when the s&p dropped 20% in a few days in March 2020 — that was clearly a buy signal. And when tech stocks dropped by 70-90% in Nov 2022. Those stocks are now up 2x/3x from bottom. Sure, long term it probably doesn’t work out to time the market but sometimes it’s pretty obvious what’s happening.

I bought when it dropped 5% because I thought it was "a clear buy signal". Then it dropped even more and I couldn't spare any cash to buy more. How could you have known at the time that 20% was the bottom?

Anything on the way down in a steep selloff is a good buy, so you did good. Also WRT the pandemic it was pretty clear that there was going to be panic selling, as soon as a pandemic was announced. What wasn’t clear was where the bottom was and how long the recovery would be. Some waited for a deeper bottom and missed out on the vertical recovery.

Re: Does Market Timing Work?

#163

Post by tchaffee »

wolverine876 wrote: post #146
tlarkworthy wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I believe human ingenuity and power over the elements goes up 7% a year, of which, the stock market is a proxy for. We are a networked organism and good at leveraging innovation at a global scale through supply chains. I see no reason to be pessimistic, we have AI, we have better space flight, we constantly improving energy sources.

Then why didn't the markets go up in Japan and Europe (per the GP)? Also, why do the US (and maybe other) securities markets increase when the underlying economy is performing poorly?

US companies provide the most valuable services and products by a long shot.

https://companiesmarketcap.com/

Re: Does Market Timing Work?

#164

Post by LapsangGuzzler »

sandworm101 wrote: post #149
Devasta wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1 - People should be able to retire. 2 - Their retirement should be financed by 401ks and the like. 3 - Stock Markets can go down as well as up. You can't have all three, so the government will always ensure that the stock market goes up long term.

>> 1 - People should be able to retire. Why? Retirement is a very recent phenomena. The idea of someone earning enough during their working life to then fund several decades of non-working life is a very modern thing, maybe only the last sixty years or so. Only a very rarified few were ever wealthy enough to actively stop working prior to becoming physically unable to work. And then, for most all of human history, th…

You could apply this argument to so many modern workforce changes, for example, the 40-hour 5-day workweek. Throughout history, most workers have not had the kind of rights that they do today.

I think we all deserve to make progress on things like retirement instead of making arguments like this. Sure, retirement hasn’t always been a guarantee, but can we agree that this isn’t a good thing?

We never question the desire to innovate in how to make money, but we’re often very quick to dismiss the idea that we can also dream to innovate society in a way that’s decoupled from profit, which is sad.

Re: Does Market Timing Work?

#165

Post by [deleted] »

nickpp wrote: post #160
wolverine876 wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Then why didn't the markets go up in Japan and Europe (per the GP)? Also, why do the US (and maybe other) securities markets increase when the underlying economy is performing poorly?

Differences between countries, cultures and people do exist. These differences will manifest themselves as variations in productivity, ultimately leading to unequal growth rates.

[deleted]

Re: Does Market Timing Work?

#166

Post by the_gastropod »

missedthecue wrote: post #161
wolverine876 wrote: post #159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yet it works so well that the public overwhelmingly supports it. > borderline unaffordable It's funded by your own income; it's a compulsory savings plan.

No, I mean societally it's unaffordable. The government will eventually need to raise taxes significantly or begin means testing it. The current system is mathematically unsustainable

The current system is mathematically unsustainable pretty much by the design of a certain political faction interested in demonstrating the incompetence of government. Removing the income cap—currently around $160k—on the social security tax would do a great deal to make social security sustainable (and more equitable).

Re: Does Market Timing Work?

#167

Post by rubicon33 »

theptip wrote: post #142
rr808 wrote: post #113

The problem with buy and hold and pretty much every current strategy is that its distorted by the huge 40 year bull market we've seen in the USA. Every American asset has gone up big time - of course "time in the market" is a good thing. If you look at Japanese or European stock markets they tell a very different story. Similarly the next 40 years in the USA could be a miserable time for investors. I can't believe ho…

> No one really knows but it wont be as good as the last few decades. Such confidence! The first part is of course true, but you’ll make money teaching the market that you are smarter if the latter is true. Perfectly possible that AI kicks the economy into overdrive in the next few years and growth increases. I wouldn’t bet my house on it, but also wouldn’t bet my house against it either.

How would AI do that?

Re: Does Market Timing Work?

#168

Post by pixl97 »

wolverine876 wrote: post #146
tlarkworthy wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I believe human ingenuity and power over the elements goes up 7% a year, of which, the stock market is a proxy for. We are a networked organism and good at leveraging innovation at a global scale through supply chains. I see no reason to be pessimistic, we have AI, we have better space flight, we constantly improving energy sources.

Then why didn't the markets go up in Japan and Europe (per the GP)? Also, why do the US (and maybe other) securities markets increase when the underlying economy is performing poorly?

>Then why didn't the markets go up in Japan and Europe

Population aging and growth uncertainty is a big guess on my part.

https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2020/02/10/na021020-jap...

The US is highly dependant on massive amount of immigration to maintain demand. Couple that with a few other things, such as the petrodollar, and you have the US behaving in an odd manner that I don't believe will last forever.

Re: Does Market Timing Work?

#169

Post by pixl97 »

PaulDavisThe1st wrote: post #141
Devasta wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1 - People should be able to retire. 2 - Their retirement should be financed by 401ks and the like. 3 - Stock Markets can go down as well as up. You can't have all three, so the government will always ensure that the stock market goes up long term.

Or you can elect a government that fundamentally doesn't agree with #1.

As long as old people keep voting in much larger numbers than young people.... how do you expect that to occur?

Re: Does Market Timing Work?

#170

Post by envsubst »

the_gastropod wrote: post #124
envsubst wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Buffett says this kind of stuff publicly. But his own fund moves in and out of investments all the time.

Buffet is arguably the best who’s ever done it. He can do things your layperson shouldn’t try. Just because Bruce Lee could do an impressive spin kick, it doesn’t make spin kicks a good idea for 99% of people to try in a self defense situation.

I completely agree. This is true of most fields, which is why you can pay a professional for their special skills.
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