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Covid patients breathe out large amounts of virus early on

news.northwestern.edu

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Re: Covid patients breathe out large amounts of virus early on

#161

Post by mcpackieh »

gumby wrote: post #130
mcpackieh wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It used to be 80% of people didn't wear a seatbelt. A few years ago, 80% of people who wore a mask. Which way are these things trending? Wearing a seatbelt has become the normal attitude towards car risk. Wearing a mask was briefly the normal attitude towards risk, but has since become [again] an abnormal attitude towards risk. If you're so keen to be abnormally safe and think everybody else is being unreasonable,…

I don't understand what point you are trying to make. Are people with masks hurting you in some way?

Who said they're hurting me? People who live in fear are hurting themselves. I don't care, except in the case of my friend. I don't like to see my friend hurt himself, is that so radical? Radical to you maybe.

Re: Covid patients breathe out large amounts of virus early on

#162

Post by mcpackieh »

justinator wrote: post #12
mcpackieh wrote: post #7

I know a guy who still wears a half-face respirator every time he's in public even for just a second. I think at this rate he'll be wearing it for the rest of his life, unable to accept a new level of risk and move on with his life. I'd like to help him but I see no possible way, he's convinced that I and 99% of the rest of the public are suicidally insane like people who play literal russian roulette.

> I'd like to help him Help yourself by minding your own business.

You know that's self-defeating advice right? You telling me to mind my business is you not minding your own business. You clearly don't live by this principle, and I won't either. I don't subscribe to the kind of radical individualism you are promoting, and you don't either. Nobody should, we live in a society. Everybody has a responsibility to speak their mind when they see somebody else behaving foolishly. You do so, you freely share your perspective on the way other people live and so do I.

Re: Covid patients breathe out large amounts of virus early on

#163

Post by taeric »

mint2 wrote: post #159
taeric wrote: post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But they specifically say that differently? As I said in another, you are jumping from severity correlating with vaccine to get to this idea. But, they actually call out self reported severity as correlating. Such that, if the correlations were strong enough it would have also showed up in their control for that variable. Stated differently, you have variables A = self-reported severity B = amount shed C = vaccinated…

This is where the mistaken reasoning is, they aren’t measuring or reporting on that naive correlation between B and C that you’re focusing on. They are saying after backing out the correlation between A and B to get adjusted B, there is no correlation between C and adjusted B. That is an ELI5 explanation of their statement “controlled for” about the factors like severity. Yes their focus is not on how A and C relate,…

The quote they use is "We found no impact of vaccination status, viral variant, age, sex, or presence of co-morbidities." Specifically, in the section "Exhaled SARS-CoV-2 RNA levels increased with self-reported symptom severity," they say that they found folks with reported severe symptoms were higher than the others. However, it is worded and presented such that really only "severe" was higher. Indeed, figure 3c shows that vaccinated individuals have similar spikes as otherwise. (The CI is actually higher and wider on the chart for vaccinated?) That chart also highlights that people reporting "none" exhale more than people that report "some" and has peaks as high as those that say severe. Really, the "severe" just shows that at that level it is harder to ignore for anyone. (The min is higher.)

Now, the section "Vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals exhaled similar levels of SARS-CoV-2 RNA," calls out the actual high data points for unvaccinated as being actually higher, with a max of 876 to 549. Though, again, it shows the CI is wider for vaccinated.

Again, I'm mostly willing to get behind the claim that vaccinated people shed less. But that isn't strongly supported by the data. The data does support that super spreaders of 500+ exhaled breaths are unvaccinated.

So, if you want to limit the claim to "vaccinated people are kept from severe symptoms," I feel that is mostly known and agreed with today. If you try to move the claim to "vaccinated shed less than unvaccinated," the data clearly indicates that is not supported. Again the 95% CI is higher for vaccinated individuals on this study.

Re: Covid patients breathe out large amounts of virus early on

#164

Post by [deleted] »

taeric wrote: post #154
mint2 wrote: post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because their paper states it. That’s what is meant by “when accounting for etc” in: “We found that vaccinated and unvaccinated participants exhaled similar numbers of SARS-CoV-2 RNA copies (Fig 2C), when accounting for age, sex, presence of co-morbidities, days since symptom onset and symptom severity”

That... doesn't say anything about them exhaling less? It specifically says that they exhibit the same. You can make a logical jump to say that, combined with a high variance but statistically significant link to self reported symptoms, that maybe vaccinated would have people that self report lower levels. But, that is specifically not in the comparison that you quoted. It says only that vaccinated and unvaccinated a…

[deleted]

Re: Covid patients breathe out large amounts of virus early on

#165

Post by mint2 »

taeric wrote: post #163
mint2 wrote: post #159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is where the mistaken reasoning is, they aren’t measuring or reporting on that naive correlation between B and C that you’re focusing on. They are saying after backing out the correlation between A and B to get adjusted B, there is no correlation between C and adjusted B. That is an ELI5 explanation of their statement “controlled for” about the factors like severity. Yes their focus is not on how A and C relate,…

The quote they use is "We found no impact of vaccination status, viral variant, age, sex, or presence of co-morbidities." Specifically, in the section "Exhaled SARS-CoV-2 RNA levels increased with self-reported symptom severity," they say that they found folks with reported severe symptoms were higher than the others. However, it is worded and presented such that really only "severe" was higher. Indeed, figure 3c sho…

Look, I’m explaining how to interpret the experiment results they report, which they base their analysis and conclusions on.

What I’m doing is going to the original foundation. What you’re looking at is the decorations they put on the foundation.

I’ve explained over and over what their foundational experiment showed as described. stop being hung up on the decorations.

The decorations are pretty bows and wrapping paper. That’s what you’re focusing on. Stop it.

Bob went to France and got annoying no one said “hi” to him. His friend tried to explain what they said, “bonjour” meant hi. He wouldn’t accept it.

We went to the land of academics, I explained what the academese means. You’re not accepting it, focusing instead on the wrong thing.

Re: Covid patients breathe out large amounts of virus early on

#166

Post by taeric »

mint2 wrote: post #165
taeric wrote: post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The quote they use is "We found no impact of vaccination status, viral variant, age, sex, or presence of co-morbidities." Specifically, in the section "Exhaled SARS-CoV-2 RNA levels increased with self-reported symptom severity," they say that they found folks with reported severe symptoms were higher than the others. However, it is worded and presented such that really only "severe" was higher. Indeed, figure 3c sho…

Look, I’m explaining how to interpret the experiment results they report, which they base their analysis and conclusions on. What I’m doing is going to the original foundation. What you’re looking at is the decorations they put on the foundation. I’ve explained over and over what their foundational experiment showed as described. stop being hung up on the decorations. The decorations are pretty bows and wrapping pape…

No, you are adding to it. Literally. Their data shows that vaccinated has a wider and higher 95% CI for exhaled. There are larger outliers in unvaccinated, but the signal in the data that they can isolate shows that you cannot claim vaccinated shed less. Which is why they don't claim that.

You may have tried to go to the land of academics, but you are injecting stronger claims into what this paper reports than they are making. They never say anything about controlling for severity. They only show that self reported severity correlates with more shedding. Though, again, that is with a very high variance across the board for the other severity. Their chart showed, and all they claim, is that there is a correlation of "severe" with higher shedding over the other reported values. Note that this is not reporting that self reported symptoms correlates. It is specifically self reported "severe" does. Indeed, their data shows that folks that report "none" have higher 95% ranges than "mild" reports do.

Re: Covid patients breathe out large amounts of virus early on

#167

Post by mint2 »

taeric wrote: post #166
mint2 wrote: post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Look, I’m explaining how to interpret the experiment results they report, which they base their analysis and conclusions on. What I’m doing is going to the original foundation. What you’re looking at is the decorations they put on the foundation. I’ve explained over and over what their foundational experiment showed as described. stop being hung up on the decorations. The decorations are pretty bows and wrapping pape…

No, you are adding to it. Literally. Their data shows that vaccinated has a wider and higher 95% CI for exhaled. There are larger outliers in unvaccinated, but the signal in the data that they can isolate shows that you cannot claim vaccinated shed less. Which is why they don't claim that. You may have tried to go to the land of academics, but you are injecting stronger claims into what this paper reports than they a…

This is the quote where they state they controlled for severity aka “accounted for”. I already posted it btw. Have a good day. Keep denying it.

“ We found that vaccinated and unvaccinated participants exhaled similar numbers of SARS-CoV-2 RNA copies (Fig 2C), when accounting for age, sex, presence of co-morbidities, days since symptom onset and symptom severity”

Re: Covid patients breathe out large amounts of virus early on

#168

Post by justinator »

mcpackieh wrote: post #162
justinator wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I'd like to help him Help yourself by minding your own business.

You know that's self-defeating advice right? You telling me to mind my business is you not minding your own business. You clearly don't live by this principle, and I won't either. I don't subscribe to the kind of radical individualism you are promoting, and you don't either. Nobody should, we live in a society. Everybody has a responsibility to speak their mind when they see somebody else behaving foolishly. You do s…

I'm not telling you to do anything - are you hung up with how English uses second person possessive adjectives to communicate? I don't know if I have a solution to that.

"behaving foolishly" is a judgement call you made on someone else, for an act that doesn't really affect you directly. You yourself are allowing it to affect you - it seems to be overpowering you, maybe ask yourself why you allow it to. You do have a choice: just put it down. Keep carrying a load of heavy things, and you're not going to go anywhere very far. It is your choice. Have a good one.

Re: Covid patients breathe out large amounts of virus early on

#169

Post by taeric »

mint2 wrote: post #167
taeric wrote: post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, you are adding to it. Literally. Their data shows that vaccinated has a wider and higher 95% CI for exhaled. There are larger outliers in unvaccinated, but the signal in the data that they can isolate shows that you cannot claim vaccinated shed less. Which is why they don't claim that. You may have tried to go to the land of academics, but you are injecting stronger claims into what this paper reports than they a…

This is the quote where they state they controlled for severity aka “accounted for”. I already posted it btw. Have a good day. Keep denying it. “ We found that vaccinated and unvaccinated participants exhaled similar numbers of SARS-CoV-2 RNA copies (Fig 2C), when accounting for age, sex, presence of co-morbidities, days since symptom onset and symptom severity”

Right, and if you read the data they use to make this claim, you see that it supports the fact that vaccinated shed as much as unvaccinated. If you restrict your claim to "vaccinated don't get severe symptoms, and therefore don't have the highest shedding," I agree with you. What you cannot claim, is that vaccinated shed less. At the 95% CI of the data, vaccinated is actually higher for the sample size they have here.

Again, their data literally shows that, outside of samples outside the 95% CI, you can't tell vaccinated from unvaccinated.

I think if you are arguing that this is only breakthrough cases in vaccinated individuals, the stronger claim probably sticks, but they don't have the data to make that claim in this study.

Re: Covid patients breathe out large amounts of virus early on

#170

Post by mint2 »

taeric wrote: post #169
mint2 wrote: post #167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is the quote where they state they controlled for severity aka “accounted for”. I already posted it btw. Have a good day. Keep denying it. “ We found that vaccinated and unvaccinated participants exhaled similar numbers of SARS-CoV-2 RNA copies (Fig 2C), when accounting for age, sex, presence of co-morbidities, days since symptom onset and symptom severity”

Right, and if you read the data they use to make this claim, you see that it supports the fact that vaccinated shed as much as unvaccinated. If you restrict your claim to "vaccinated don't get severe symptoms, and therefore don't have the highest shedding," I agree with you. What you cannot claim, is that vaccinated shed less. At the 95% CI of the data, vaccinated is actually higher for the sample size they have here…

Bonjour. It is clear the proverbial horse does not want water.
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