Live data from Hacker News

NASA finally admits what everyone already knows: SLS is unaffordable

arstechnica.com

161–170 of 258 posts

Re: NASA finally admits what everyone already knows: SLS is unaffordable

#161
post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There’s no real way to evaluate the effectiveness of the Chinese military because they’ve not seen significant action in several generations. However that itself is not a good sign. As for their kit, Myanmar bought some of their planes but none of them are operational. The planes were a joint project by China and Pakistan, but 8 years after the deal was signed apparently have persistent unsolved technical and structu…

I'm not sure it makes much sense to worry about carriers for the war in Taiwan that everyone expects- their aircraft can use their airfields. Peacetime armies are generally bad, but turnover tends to be high when the fighting starts, and the second or third set of generals is often much better. The most important advantages China has are pretty overwhelming- a giant population, and they own the global supply chain fo…

A few issues there.

For an invasion of Taiwan numbers are important, sure, but it's a wide channel and amphibious assaults are absolutely the hardest kind of operation an army can attempt. Technical competence, and I would also argue operational flexibility at every level, are absolutely crucial.

In terms of supply chains, that matters for an extended conflict, as we can see in Ukraine. However an invasion of Taiwan would either work in the first week or so, or it's over. I suppose they could try a long terms blockade, but that doesn't seem to be their strategy.

China is extremely vulnerable to a blockade themselves though. They have no control of their essential seaborn supply routes, and are highly dependent on external sources for energy, raw materials, high tech parts, and maybe most importantly food and fertilisers. The US can turn all of that off like a tap at a moment's notice.

The sorts of sanctions levelled at Russia since last year would have China on it's knees in months. The only way to mitigate that would be for the PLAN to go toe to toe gobally with the US, UK, French and Australian and Japanese Navys all at the same time. Also maybe India. The Indian Navy is small but it's no joke, and they have two fully operational carriers.

Re: NASA finally admits what everyone already knows: SLS is unaffordable

#162
post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> convinced the USSR they couldn't win i dont think they were convinced they couldn't win - they just realized their economic laggardness. The remnants of the USSR is still trying to win! For a real example of "they couldn't win", you'd have to look towards Japan. And is it such a bad thing to "not win"?

[flagged]

It doesn't seem to be working for RU though. Finland joined NATO and Sweden is going to because of their Ukraine shenanigans.

Re: NASA finally admits what everyone already knows: SLS is unaffordable

#163
post #134
post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There’s no real way to evaluate the effectiveness of the Chinese military because they’ve not seen significant action in several generations. However that itself is not a good sign. As for their kit, Myanmar bought some of their planes but none of them are operational. The planes were a joint project by China and Pakistan, but 8 years after the deal was signed apparently have persistent unsolved technical and structu…

The first few Chinese aircraft carriers were probably never intended to be fully combat effective and are mainly intended to develop an experienced cadre of naval aviators. The carriers lack catapults, which means they can't really launch tankers (or any heavy aircraft at all). US Navy carriers almost always have at least one tanker up while conducting flight operations. This makes a huge difference in safety because…

I'm surprised they don't have them working yet. An Australian carrier was decommed a few decades ago and went to China for scrap. The Australians stripped most of it but left the steam catapults intact, and I know the Chinese were using them for land based experiments.

Re: NASA finally admits what everyone already knows: SLS is unaffordable

#164
post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There’s no real way to evaluate the effectiveness of the Chinese military because they’ve not seen significant action in several generations. However that itself is not a good sign. As for their kit, Myanmar bought some of their planes but none of them are operational. The planes were a joint project by China and Pakistan, but 8 years after the deal was signed apparently have persistent unsolved technical and structu…

The US hasn't seen action against a peer since 1945. Ofcourse there's a reason for that: nuclear weapons.

I think what matters is generational experience, so there are always officers on duty that have combat experience. Since WW2 they've had the Korean and Vietnam wars, both Gulf wars and Afghanistan, plus numerous smaller operations. All of those except Afghanistan involved significant naval support. That's kept the ball moving forward in terms of real world experience.

I am a bit worried about naval officer training though, there have been damaging cutbacks and compromises made on that front. Nothing that's likely to have long term consequences yet, but they need to fix that before it gets worse.

Re: NASA finally admits what everyone already knows: SLS is unaffordable

#165
post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> convinced the USSR they couldn't win i dont think they were convinced they couldn't win - they just realized their economic laggardness. The remnants of the USSR is still trying to win! For a real example of "they couldn't win", you'd have to look towards Japan. And is it such a bad thing to "not win"?

[flagged]

> the US broke a promise to the USSR of not expanding NATO

There is literally zero evidence of that, except claims by the Russian propaganda itself.

People who live in totalitarian countries (like Russia, where ruler is in a power for a lifetime), seems to not understand that democracies don't do promises, because leaders changes frequently, and any promise without written agreement is just plain impossible except very short term.

So you are using an instance of internal russian lie and propaganda to "hate US imperialism and propaganda", and don't see it yourself.

Re: NASA finally admits what everyone already knows: SLS is unaffordable

#166
post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> convinced the USSR they couldn't win i dont think they were convinced they couldn't win - they just realized their economic laggardness. The remnants of the USSR is still trying to win! For a real example of "they couldn't win", you'd have to look towards Japan. And is it such a bad thing to "not win"?

[flagged]

[dead]

Re: NASA finally admits what everyone already knows: SLS is unaffordable

#167
post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

> the US broke a promise to the USSR of not expanding NATO There is literally zero evidence of that, except claims by the Russian propaganda itself. People who live in totalitarian countries (like Russia, where ruler is in a power for a lifetime), seems to not understand that democracies don't do promises, because leaders changes frequently, and any promise without written agreement is just plain impossible except ve…

There possibly was an "understanding" with the USSR not to expand eastward when the Soviet union was around but when the USSR dissolved that "promise" made no sense anymore.

Re: NASA finally admits what everyone already knows: SLS is unaffordable

#168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a common sentiment, but I don't share it. Crewed spaceflight is no worse and no different than spending money on Hubble, JWST, or the Voyager missions. We pay for those missions because they inspire us. For many, gaining knowledge about the universe is its own reward, even if it doesn't lead to cancer cures or longer-lasting batteries. In the same way, sending people into space connects us to all those namele…

> For many, gaining knowledge about the universe is its own reward But is putting humans in a low Earth orbit really gaining knowledge about the universe at this point? Surely we've hit the point of diminishing returns by now.

SLS isn't about putting humans in low earth orbit

Re: NASA finally admits what everyone already knows: SLS is unaffordable

#169
post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

> the US broke a promise to the USSR of not expanding NATO There is literally zero evidence of that, except claims by the Russian propaganda itself. People who live in totalitarian countries (like Russia, where ruler is in a power for a lifetime), seems to not understand that democracies don't do promises, because leaders changes frequently, and any promise without written agreement is just plain impossible except ve…

National Security Archive at George Washington University:

Declassified documents show security assurances against NATO expansion to Soviet leaders from Baker, Bush, Genscher, Kohl, Gates, Mitterrand, Thatcher, Hurd, Major, and Woerner

You're welcome.

https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/russia-programs/2017...

All of your comments are suspiciously related to US foreign policy issues btw ;)

Re: NASA finally admits what everyone already knows: SLS is unaffordable

#170
post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> convinced the USSR they couldn't win i dont think they were convinced they couldn't win - they just realized their economic laggardness. The remnants of the USSR is still trying to win! For a real example of "they couldn't win", you'd have to look towards Japan. And is it such a bad thing to "not win"?

[flagged]

Calling invading a neighbor country "defending Russia's interests" sounds weird
Post reply on HN